Our man Chris Day has a 16/1 fancy for the bet365 Charlie Hall Chase at Wetherby and three other bets across the weekend.
1pt e.w Mister Whitaker in 3.20 Wetherby at 16/1
1pt win Roksana in 2.45 Wetherby at 11/2
1pt e.w Whatmore in 3.40 Ascot at 16/1
1pt win Anemoi in 3.05 Ascot at 6/1
The jumps season has really clicked into gear in the last couple of weekends and the action from Wetherby and Ascot this weekend sees the return of the highest rated chaser in training, Paul Nicholls’ Cyrname (176) in Wetherby’s bet365 Charlie Hall Chase.
The problem is that his rating was gained in beating Altior over a three furlongs shorter trip going right-handed at Ascot, which a glance at the form book would say are his optimum conditions.
He disappointed twice afterwards, running like a blatant non stayer in the King George behind stablemate Clan Des Obeaux then unseating when beaten at the time back at his favourite track in February.
There’s no trainer I rate higher than Nicholls and he seems confident about going left handed and this race is designed to tell him if the horse stays but, with so many “ifs”, how could any punter take the 5-4 currently on offer?
The difficulty in opposing him is that he has to run almost a stone below his rating to give others a chance unless something can improve dramatically.
The last two winners of this race, Definitly Red in 2018 and Ballyoptic last year, are back to renew rivalry. The former edged out Black Corton for his victory and Ballyoptic stayed on strongly in 2019 to beat Elegant Escape with Aso in third and the 2018 hero back in fourth.
Aso had travelled like the winner that day but looked a short runner and couldn’t be fancied to turn the form around while Definitly Red was beaten so far it’s hard to imagine him revrsing it either - for all he did run well in three further visits to the racecourse.
Kim Bailey has always held Vinndication in the highest regard and he put up a superb weight carrying performance first time out in 2019 at Ascot and has shown his best form at right handed tracks That said he has performed with great credit at the Cheltenham Festival in each of the last two seasons.
I’d love to see him carry top weight at Ascot this weekend rather than head north up the A1 but it’s unclear where he’s going at this stage so a watching brief is advised.
Mick Channon took over the training of 2018 Cheltenham Festival winner MISTER WHITAKER when Henrietta Knight retired from training and it’s fair to say he’s under achieved in the last couple of seasons but he did finish off last season with an excellent third to Simply The Betts in the Brown Advisory & Merriebelle Stable Plate at Cheltenham, staying on strongly without quite having the boot to challenge the winner.
Nevertheless that is strong form, he doesn’t have as much to find as the prices suggest and has always threatened to stay especially over an easy three miles which he’ll get here. At 16/1 I think he offers the best each-way value in the race at this stage.
The preceding race, the bet365 West Yorkshire Hurdle, sees last season’s surprise Paddy Power Stayers’ Hurdle winner Lisnagar Oscar reappear. He’s got a Grade One penalty to carry and will surely have bigger fish to fry later in the season.
There’s been a lot of early money for Philip Hobbs’ Thyme Hill and that’s easy to understand as he acquitted himself very well when the meat in the sandwich between three Irish hurdlers in the Albert Bartlett on his last visit to the racecourse. Everything else he did in his previous three hurdle races was impressive and I think he should take the beating but the trainers’ horses have not been flying in recent weeks and he looks a bit short as a result.
Malcolm Denmark has sent Next Destination to Paul Nicholls, having been trained by Willie Mullins as a novice, but it will be some training performance to win this after a 920 day break from the track and he’ll surely be seen over fences shortly where he’s likely to excel on what we’ve already seen of him.
One trainer who continues to fire in the winners is Dan Skelton and his 2019 Mares’ Hurdle winner, ROKSANA does not have a Grade One penalty to carry this year. She was just edged out by If The Cap Fits In the Liverpool Hurdle following her Cheltenham success and in receipt of the mares’ allowance I think she’s worth taking a chance on at 11/2.
The big race at Ascot is the Sodexo Gold Cup Handicap Chase over three miles, won last year by the aforementioned Vinndication. He’s 10lbs higher here but I’ll be backing him if declared as he won so easily last year and think this race suits him perfectly. A number of big handicaps over the last couple of weekends have been won by top weights and I really like his chance again.
However, it seems no more than 50/50 where he ends up at this stage and without him this race would look very open.
Henry Daly trained a winner of a big handicap hurdle at Cheltenham on Saturday and in WHATMORE he has a well weighted, unexposed chaser who already has placed form in top class handicaps and looks just the type to run his race here. There’s some 16/1 around which is great value for a horse who looks capable of leaving his current rating behind sooner rather than later.
There’s a tough looking contest due off at 3.05 , the Listed Sodexo Handicap Hurdle, with plenty of potential improvers and the tough as teak Song For Someone heading the weights.
I thought Proschema was thrown in at Wetherby a couple of weeks ago yet Harry Whittington’s ANEMOI left him for dead over the last with the solid yardstick, Oakley,in third.
That form is solid and, off just a 4lbs higher mark, the winner should be supported at 6-1 here.
Preview posted 0945 GMT on 27/10/2020