Four bets for Chris Day at Cheltenham this weekend and he can't understand how Put The Kettle On is priced up at 5/1 for the Shloer Chase.
1pt win Saint Sonnet in 2.15 Cheltenham Saturday at 4/1
1pt win Protektorat in 2.25 Cheltenham Friday at 3/1
1pt win Edwardstone in 3.00 Cheltenham Sunday at 7/1
2pts win Put The Kettle On in 2.25 Cheltenham Sunday at 5/1
It’s one of the best weekends of the year with the Paddy Power Gold Cup the centrepiece of the three day Open Meeting at Cheltenham.
The race has been dominated by the big southern yards over the years although the last couple of renewals have gone to Gary Moore and Kerry Lee and this year’s edition looks fascinating.
It is customary to look at the big two-and-a-half-mile handicap chases at the preceding Festival when analysing the race and Simply The Betts, the winner of the Brown Advisory & Merriebelle Stable Plate in March, was one of the most progressive handicappers of last season having also beaten the now 157-rated Imperial Aura at Prestbury Park on Trials’ Day in January.
In March he beat last year’s winner of this race, Happy Diva off level weights but has to concede 6lbs to the runner-up on Saturday.
Both clearly have a great chance and it would come as no surprise to see either right in contention jumping the last.
One of the big yards with a great record here is Nigel Twiston-Davies and his Al Dancer won first time out at Newton Abbott to earn his place in Saturday’s line up. I feel the balance of his form leaves him with a bit to find but he won a handicap hurdle round here and his best form over the smaller obstacles came when ridden close to the pace in big fields which could be the scenario in this race.
The Marsh Chase, formerly known as the JLT, is another race which has thrown up the winner of this and Nicky Henderson’s Mister Fisher fared best of the English horses in this year's renewal in fourth.
That form entitles him to respect here as do his victories at the track at the December Meeting and at Doncaster in January. He probably rates the biggest danger on drying ground which he looks sure to appreciate.
The champion trainer has had some near misses in this and some disappointments since Fondmort won it for him in 2003 but this year's runner must have a live chance however the race is run, having run respectably as a novice hurdler when eight in Klassical Dream’s Sky Bet Supreme.
Outsiders don’t have a great record here overall although Colin Tizzard’s The Russian Doyen was eye-catching when third in a decent handicap hurdle at Fontwell last month and is 7lbs lower than when fourth in A Plus Tard’s novice handicap chase romp here in 2019.
The stable could be in better form although that surely won’t be the case for ever and he has more than one bit of form to recommend him.
For the winner, though, I have to look to the man with the best recent record in this, Paul Nicholls,. He who won this race for owner Rose Loxton in 2014 with Caid Du Berlais and he has aimed her SAINT SONNET at this since his seventh in the aforementioned Marsh Chase.
I recall him winning at Catterick before the Festival on his UK debut after which Nicholls was effusive in his praise and I thought he ran much better than his final placing in March in a race dominated by battle-hardened Irish chasers who raced up with the pace. In contrast he travelled well within himself and jumped neatly apart from a mistake at the sixth last.
A glance at his French form reveals him to be pretty well handicapped compared to some horses who are now trained over here and he’s got well over six figures in career earnings from his efforts on that side of the Channel. In addition he’ll surely improve for a summer on his back at Ditcheat and there isn’t a better man than Nicholls to lay one out for the big day.
Whether he’s a bigger price on the day I don’t know but I’ll have a point on him now at 4/1 and another on Saturday if he’s no shorter although I do appreciate it goes against the grain to tip favourites ante-post.
The three-day meeting kicks off on Friday and the novice chase at 2.25 sees Fusil Raffles bid to follow up his win here in October. Southfield Stone could also attempt the double having won at the same meeting but I think Dan Skelton’s PROTEKTORAT could be the one to beat having impressed with his fencing on debut at Carlisle.
Having won here over hurdles on New Year’s Day I think he has all the tools to serve it up to his rivals and at 3/1 he’s well worth supporting in a race which could cut up.
Sunday’s big betting race is the Greatwood Hurdle and Nicholls has Chepstow winner Thyme White entered. That form has been consistently franked and the manner in which he strolled through it marked him down as one to keep on the right side of.
Tegerek looked a reformed character when justifying market support in the conditional jockeys’ hurdle at the Showcase Meeting which Old Guard used as a stepping stone to success here in 2015, although I’m not sure about his resolution if things get tough.
Alan King, who saddled Sceau Royal to win the Elite Hurdle at Wincanton on Saturday, relies on EDWARDSTONE, who beat subsequent Tolworth winner Fiddlerontheroof and the ill-fated Harry Senior, who went on to win a Grade Two, on his first two starts last year.
There was very little wrong with his sixth in the Sky Bet Supreme afterwards but I feel he may be really smart caught fresh on decent ground and he’s my pick at 7/1 to follow up his trainer’s success here with Harambe in the race last year.
The best bet of the meeting for me goes in the Shloer Chase on Sunday where Henry De Bromhead’s Arkle winner PUT THE KETTLE ON steps out of novice company for the first time at a course where she is unbeaten in two starts.
She beat Rouge Vif by almost 20 lengths in March yet can be backed at twice his odds after his demolition job of a field of pretty exposed handicappers at the last meeting. 5/1 makes very attractive reading at this stage.