Saturday racing preview: Chris Day Ascot and Haydock tips

Racing betting tips: Saturday January 23

1pt win Arrivederci in 1.50 Ascot at 12/1

1pt win Danny Kirwan in 1.50 Ascot at 12/1

1pt win Cap Du Nord in 2.40 Haydock at 6/1

1pt win Jerrysback in 3.00 Ascot at 14/1

1pt win Waiting Patiently in 3.35 Ascot at 3/1

After a couple of quieter weekends to kick off 2021, Ascot and Haydock stage Graded events which could reasonably have a major effect on the Unibet Champion Hurdle and Betway Queen Mother Champion Chase betting on Saturday.

More of that later but the race with the best betting shape is the Matchbook Better Way To Bet Holloway’s Handicap Hurdle, a Grade Three event over two miles five furlongs with the in-form Harry Fry providing the current ante-post favourite in his prolific winner Lightly Squeeze.

He was third in the big handicap run over two miles on the Saturday before Christmas and everything about that run suggested he would improve for this step up in trip. The handicapper has left his mark alone, indeed he finds himself on the same one as when falling at the last in last year’s Betfair Hurdle when plenty felt he’d have taken a hand in the finish.

This will be his second run back after a breathing operation and it’s hard to find anything negative to say about him but surely he’ll be no shorter come the off.

One place behind him in December was Benson, a horse who’d already won a couple of autumn handicaps prior to Ascot and he too looked like he’d appreciate further when staying on from some way off the pace.

Of the two I’d say he was more eye-catching and certainly likely to benefit from a stiffer test than he got there.

Nicky Henderson is one of the first points of call when assessing big handicap hurdles around Ascot and his Craigneiche must be thought capable of major improvement after winning at the second time of asking at Doncaster. A winner right-handed in his bumper days he could be anything but it’s guesswork on what we know.

Mick Easterby has Alberts Back, on a hat trick after wins at Wetherby and Haydock before Christmas, entered and he looked really progressive on the latter occasion through which he holds War Lord and Our Power. He seems really solid with the only question mark his ability to act going this way round.

The Irish trainers have plundered some big prizes this season but not the usual suspects and Henry De Bromhead, who has Dancing On My Own, and Jessica Harrington, with Winging A Prayer, are either keen to give this a go or interested to see what the British assessor thinks of their marks with Cheltenham in mind.

I can’t see a form reason for backing either but that’s quite normal with Irish trained horses who tend to improve markedly once sent handicapping on these shores.

There are two horses who interest me here, the first is Jonjo O’Neill’s ARRIVEDERCI, who was all the rage for the Betfair Exchance Hurdle Hurdle we’ve already discussed in relation to the favourites for this race. He came in for sustained support into 5-1 favouritism that day but never seemed comfortable over the shorter trip. He’s a potential big improver here and has some very solid right-handed form to his name. At 12/1 he’s one of my two against the field.

The other is DANNY KIRWAN from the all-conquering stable of champion trainer Paul Nicholls. He's a lightly raced eight-year-old who changed hands for big money as a young horse and has yet to fulfill his early promise.

This season he won a maiden hurdle here from Time Flies By who was sent 7/1 for the Ladbroke Hurdle, then failed to stay in a three mile race at Cheltenham where half the hurdles were missed out on International Hurdle Day.

His other run at this track was also his best other effort when beaten a length-and-a-half by Angels Breath, who rated 146 over hurdles and that makes the selection look well in off 134. The forecast soft ground is definitely in his favour.

The trainer has always rated him highly and his owner regularly plunders some big prizes at this track which makes me think this race has been on the agenda for some time, indeed he is the only stable entry in a contest where they they have historically done well.

I’d like to see him ridden from just off the pace, with a little more restraint than usual, as there could be a very strong gallop on but nobody pays more attention to how a race will be run than his trainer and I doubt he’ll be beaten by tactics so he’s my other selection at 12/1.

The bet365 Handicap Chase, a Class Two over two miles five furlongs, is a typically competitive event for the course but I did find it hard to pinpoint any particularly progressive, improving types to go with so JERRYSBACK, whose best two pieces of chase form were arguably at this track, gets the vote at 14/1.

His third to Regal Encore here in December 2019 has been franked since and he also gave Vinndication a race here a couple of years ago over course and distance.

There’s surely more to come from this lightly-raced nine-year-old and a mark of 142 appears workable. He’s been priced up at 14/1 early doors.

Dashel Drasher is a big improver but his mark means he’ll have to concede 10lbs to the selection on Saturday and his two opponents may not have given their true running here last time.

The Sky Bet Chase at Doncaster in a couple of weeks’ time looks red-hot and the two who currently head the market, Royale Pagaille and CAP DU NORD, have been given entries in Haydock’s Peter Marsh Chase at 2.40

It’s easy to understand their respective trainers going for this easier option as they both look ahead of the handicapper in a race where there are very few similar types and I just fancy the latter to gain his revenge on 10lbs better term from Kempton last time.

His earlier form at Newbury was franked by Canelo at Wetherby over Christmas and I feel he’ll be well suited to being ridden close to the pace on this tight left-hand track. His Kempton conqueror must be a legitimate Gold Cup contender if he can win off 156 here.

Politologue bids to win another Grade One for Paul Nicholls in Ascot’s Clarence House Chase but I think he’s a far better horse fresh.

The trainer presumably thinks he can get him right for Cheltenham in the weeks between now and the Festival but there’s very little between him and King George runner up WAITING PATIENTLY on previous form and I’m happy to take the 3/1 about Ruth Jefferson’s supplementary entry.

• Preview posted 2000 GMT on 18/01/2021