Rory Delargy goes through Wednesday's punting pointers and settles on a 2pt win bet at Nottingham with conditions turning in the selection's favour.
Recommended Bets, Wednesday October 28
2pts win Show Palace in 2.20 Nottingham at 17/2 (minimum 6/1)
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2.20 Nottingham - Palace Can Show Them The Way Home
With more rain forecast at Nottingham, and David who lives close to the course reporting that the wet stuff has arrived with a vengeance, conditions promise to be testing again, and that can only suit Show Palace, three times a winner at the track and overall form figures with cut in the ground here that read 44113413.
He’s slipped to a very workable mark off the back of a couple of moderate efforts but there are ready excuses for both (found to be coughing last time) and before that, had looked to be coming right back to form with a close fourth in a better class race than this at Musselburgh.
Jennie Candlish has her string in good order at the moment, with three winners and two seconds from her last twelve runners, and with his ideal conditions, Show Palace can add to the tally.
3.50 Nottingham - Seaborough Solid
Thorntoun Care is off the Christmas card list after a poor display on Saturday when conditions really ought to have brought about a better effort and perhaps he’s simply had enough for the season, while Marwari looks a potential project for Mick Easterby having arrived from the yard of Dermot Weld. He’s been priced up very conservatively, however, and his pedigree suggests that despite one respectable run on testing ground, the mud isn’t really what he wants.
On balance, the horse most likely to give punters a solid run for their money is David Thompson’s heavy-ground hurdles winner Seaborough.
Like many here, he finds winning hard, but he ran right to form when third at Redcar on his reappearance two weeks ago, looking a threat before getting tired in the final furlong. That was his first run since March, so you can expect him to come on a bit from that, and it’s interesting connections have gone to the trouble of booking Brodie Hampson, who was on the winner at Redcar.
There are plenty of hold-up horses in the field, so you’d like to see Seaborough ridden forward, as prominent runners often go well on the round course at Nottingham, and we’d be inclined to use him as part of an each-way double given Sky Bet are offering four places here.
Two To Consider for Extra Places- 2.40 Taunton
This contest sees Sky Bet going 6 places, and is therefore the perfect foil for backers looking to play up on the place value about Seaborough (above). The angle here is potentially intensified by the likelihood of a gamble developing on handicap debutant Marilyn Monroe, and while I think she looks plotted up for the in-form Anthony Honeyball, David doesn’t fancy her at all (as a native of Nottingham, I can only assume he’s a Jayne Mansfield fan).
Normally this would see us give the race a swerve, but with extra places on offer, she could end up making the market for a couple of outsiders who look quite interesting at much juicier odds.
Williams Overture went in the notebook after his Uttoxeter effort in a maiden hurdle where he showed enough to make him of some interest once going into handicaps, as today. The step up to 3m should suit, as should the likely good ground at Taunton, and we’ve seen the Tom Symonds/David Dennis angle pay dividends already this season. Jonathan Burke is an interesting booking, and the well-named (Mahler-Venusorserena) gelding ought to improve at this sort of trip.
Similar comments apply to The Lion Queen, who twice caught the eye in novice hurdles this summer as one that would do better once handicapped, and stayed on nicely from the rear to finish sixth behind runaway winner Cotton End on her handicap debut at Hereford. That was over 2m4f, and she gave the impression 3m on good ground might well be within her compass. That race has already given us one dividend, with fifth home Let’s Go Dutchess a respectable fourth at Wincanton at the weekend, and The Lion Queen looks a likely improver.
The above pair are selected on potential rather than solid form, so you’d want a decent price about either before getting involved. With the firm offering the best terms not up at present, we’ll not recommend a bet, but I may revisit in the morning.
Preview posted 1800 BST on 27/10/2020
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