More profit for our man on Tuesday and he has four Wednesday bets including 12/1 and 11/1 chances at Newmarket.
Recommended bets:
1pt win Kalsara in 3.20 Newmarket at 12/1 (minimum 10/1)
1pt win Jarlath in 3.45 Fontwell at 12/1 (minimum 7/1)
2pts win TB Broke Her in 4.15 Hereford at 13/2 (minimum 9/2)
1pt e.w Sayifyouwill 4.30 Newmarket at 12/1 (minimum 10/1)
Untapped Potential: 3.20 Newmarket - Kalsara
Kalsara very much caught my eye as a juvenile, largely because she carries the colours of James Oldham, whose father Gerry owned the great Sagaro among other top-class horses. The famous chocolate and white hoops had been missing from the UK for well over 30 years before Kalsara popped up at Newbury, and I took a keen interest in her early starts. She won a novice at Kempton on her second start, and ran very well to be second to subsequent Fillies’ Mile winner Quadrilateral at Newbury on her final outing, and I noted that she would need plenty of time to develop, but was the type to do much better, looking immature but perfectly willing.
She made her return in a race far too hot for her at Royal Ascot, here her freshness was all too evident, and she was looked after when beaten. It’s probably significant that trainer Andrew Balding decided that she needed a break after that, and she’s very much bred to come into her own on soft ground being out of a Whipper mare. Normally, I’d be keeping a watching brief on one with her profile after a break, but Andrew Balding has a positive record when returning his horses to the track after such a break, and I’m going to take a chance that she is ready to go again.
Fit And Fancied: Jarlath - 3.45 Fontwell
There’s rain forecast for the East Sussex venue but that won’t bother Jarlath, who came back from an 18-month absence to run very well in a better class race than this at Warwick last month, holding every chance until late in the piece and only giving best as he got tired approaching the last.
Now back on his last winning mark, he goes well at Fontwell, having been runner-up here on all three starts, on a wide range of ground conditions (good, soft, heavy, a bit of standard on the bends). He can make mistakes, but he’s a game and consistent performer, who is weighted to play a big part, and with fitness on his side against a few coming back from varying absences, he looks a fair bet.
Tactically Versatile: 4.15 Hereford - TB Broke Her
TB Broke Her makes more appeal that the formbook would indicate in this modest handicap chase. Her last race under rules came in a hunter chase at Cheltenham where the track and the stiff fences were a bit too much for her to handle, and she’s shown her wellbeing with three good runs in points since then, making all to beat the useful Ballyboker Breeze at Chaddesely Corbett, and finishing third to talented pair Salvatore and Barney Dwan last time, where she had a subsequent handicap chase winner behind her in fourth.
TB Broke Her won over C&D for Matt Sheppard when first arriving from Ireland, and followed up off her current mark at Ludlow. She is now starting out for the promising Ryan Potter, and will get every assistance from the excellent Lily Pinchin, who was seen to great effect on the quirky Follow The Swallow at Wincanton recently. TB Broke doesn’t need to lead, but she likes a bit of space to jump her fences, and with no obvious front runner in opposition, she could well jump off and make all the running, although the fact that she is tactically versatile means that the intelligent Pinchin can take her pick between Plan A and Plan B depending on what others do.
Form Franked: 4.30 Newmarket - Sayifyouwill
It’s been a tough year for Amanda Perrett but a couple of winners in the past fortnight, plus her star sprinter Tinto being chinned on the line at Kempton, suggests she’s back in a bit of form and that makes Sayifyouwill of some interest here.
Two starts ago, in a 7f nursery here, she finished a close third behind Mystery Angel and The Flying Ginger. The assumption was, given the first three home all came from very high-numbered stalls, that they were flattered by the draw, but with Mystery Angel placed in the Group 3 Zetland Stakes and just touched off in a Listed race at Pontefract, and The Flying Ginger winning a York nursery on her next start, that assumption is well wide of the mark.
Sayifyouwill didn’t really get a chance to prove her worth last time, but a sixth of 27 in the big sales race here can hardly be described as a backward step, especially with her apprentice rider not allowed to use her allowance, and she will appreciate the return to 7f having been outpaced when the tempo quickened in that contest. She is proven in the ground, and will give her running, so looks a solid each-way selection. She’s gone up a little in the weights for her last run, but Ray Dawson is excellent value for his claim, and his booking shows intent here.
Academy Overlay? Parish Academy - 2.45 Newmarket
Last time out at Nottingham, Parish Academy finished third behind Act Of Wisdom and Genuflex, and on the revised terms today he looks held, but a slow start didn’t help his cause and he stayed on well before being eased off in the last half furlong when his chance had gone. That was a career-best effort and the form - despite only the four runners - looks solid, with the time figure backing up the visual impression.
He’s hard to recommend as a win bet, but he has exactly the kind of profile (held by other runners and from as unfashionable yard), that will see him crossed off the list of likely winners first by most punters. As such, it’s possible that he will be allowed to drift to an obscene price, and I’ll try to get him matched at chunky odds on the exchange place market for small stakes.
Preview posted 1800 BST on 20/10/2020
