Two bets for our man Rory Delargy on an interesting day's racing including a 12/1 chance in the feature race at Wetherby.
Recommended bets, Wednesday October 14
1pt win Storm Control 4.10 Wetherby at 12/1 (minimum price 8/1)
1pt win Englishman in 4:25 Kempton at 10/1 (minimum price 6/1)
For details of advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record
No Misplaced Loyalty: Lay Dakota Gold 3:45 Nottingham
In my column for the Irish Field on Saturday, I nominated Dakota Gold as a confident selection, and made him my nap, but I won’t be backing him today, and people might ask why. I don’t follow horses, other than emotionally - I’m not a robot, after all - I follow the figures, and the figures suggested he was a tremendous bet at York given his excellent record at a track that some horses seem to dislike. He is a grand sprinter, and will give his running again in the Rous Stakes.
Dakota Gold may well win here, but the figures suggest he’s one of four likely winners in the field, and Aljady, Tis Marvellous and Moss Gill all have similar claims on ratings, and the tissue favourite must give weight to them all, making him a lay at 5/2 or shorter on value grounds. Let’s be clear - this is not a “can’t win” pronouncement, merely a note to say that he will probably be overbet on the back of a run which has less relevance that it will likely be given on the day. Another warning on horses like him is that if you see him drift in the market, you should not take it as a sign that you should lay him with greater confidence. He really should drift when liquidity increases, and bigger punters set up to bet. It’s more likely a sign that you’re losing your window of opportunity.
Fresh Start: Storm Control 4.10 Wetherby
Storm Control looked set for a good season when making all to beat Sky Pirate at Doncaster last December but it rather went wrong for him after that, with the going blamed for his lacklustre effort here the time after and then never travelling in heavy ground at Warwick. That does mean he’s getting some help from the handicapper now, and he actually finds himself 2lb lower than for that Doncaster win, with a recent pipe-opener at Warwick likely to have brought him on plenty.
Kerry Lee is now bang in form, with her last two runners both winners, and whatever issues Kerry seemed to have with her horses last winter should be behind her now. In that case, she has some well handicapped ones to go to war with over the coming months, and Storm Control is very much in that bracket. Quite how he is 12/1 and the horse he beat at Doncaster - and is now better off with at the weights - is vying for favouritism, is a bit of a mystery.
Englishman’s Home: Englishman 4.25 Kempton
Englishman ran a stinker on his latest start at Southwell but that was his first start on Fibresand at the age of ten, and is therefore very easy to forgive. Concentrate on his second over C&D the time before - and indeed his overall record of 6152 at the track - and he starts to make much more appeal. Well berthed in stall 1, and with the runner on his outside a slow starter who needs driving, he has a clear chance to take them along and that should negate the need for luck in running which he didn’t really get on his last start here.
Wait for Nonsense: No Nonsense 6.00 Kempton
A good quality sprint but a few of these have no experience of the Kempton surface. Tinto is one of the most frustrating sorts around but there’s a big handicap to be won with him when it all drops right. That could be here, as there’s enough pace for him to aim at and his Kempton record of 64125 reads perfectly well, but at a likely bigger price it might be worth taking a chance on No Nonsense back at a track where he’s unbeaten in two starts.
His 2019 season ended after the Jersey Stakes, and he’s looked all about temperament since returning in the Wokingham this time around, deemed a non runner in the International Stakes at Ascot after losing his rider in the stalls, and he again reared up when down the field last time. On the plus side, this useful sort has a C&D win in a smart time on his CV, and he has dropped a long way in the weights in a short space of time. The worry is that his temperament has got the better of him already, but he’s been gelded since last seen and given time to rebuild his confidence, so if there’s a time to catch him, it looks to be now or never. Hold off, though, until it’s clear he’s not going to boil over, and/or until getting a bit better than the current best of 16/1.
Preview posted 1730 BST on 13/10/2020
Recent winners at advised prices...
Kraka - 17/2
Geography Teacher - 10/1
Responsible gambling
We are committed in our support of responsible gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.
If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline on 0808 8020 133, or visit begambleaware.org.
Further support and information can be found at GamCare and gamblingtherapy.org.
