Watch and Learn: Timefigure analysis from Graham North

I was reminded again over the weekend when watching the QIPCO 2000 Guineas of a discussion aired on At The Races in 2018 between my former Sportsman colleague Julian Muscat and Racing Post journalist Peter Thomas, that debated the merits of not only the timefigure Timeform awarded Without Parole in a maiden race at Yarmouth in 2018, on just his second start, but also the sectional process that had not long been under way and which sought to upgrade performances by reference to how far removed a horses finishing speed is from what might be expected in a well-run race at the courses and distances involved.

'Passing trees’ and ‘who can even name the runner-up’ were just two observational gems from that misguided scoffing and the pair won’t need reminding that Without Parole, whose 117 timefigure is 7lb higher than any other winner at Yarmouth this century, went on to win the St James’ Palace Stakes while the runner-up who no-one would remember (Ostilio) also scored at the Royal meeting before ending the his season with a win in a Group Two at Longchamp.

The fundamental reason timefigures and upgrades have the ability to be so powerfully predictive (though they don’t always follow through as blow-out two-year-old Asadna showed last year) but which is so often overlooked or misunderstood completely is that not only are they relative to the performances of other horses on the same card but also all the horses that have run at the track in previous years whose times (overall and sectional) and performances provide the bedrock standards that future horses can be measured against.

So, how does all this relate to the latest running of the 2000 Guineas? On traditional timefigure analysis, City Of Troy held the best claims beforehand as he had posted the two best timefigures, 117 in the Superlative Stakes last July and 115 in the Dewhurst; next came Ghostwriter on 110 on his Royal Lodge performance closely followed by Rosallion on 109 with a bit of a gap then to Alyanaabi on 106 and Haatem on 105.

Incorporating sectional upgrades into the mix shed a slightly different light on proceedings, however; thanks to a 10lb upgrade in the Dewhurst, City Of Troy led the field among that cohort by an even greater margin with his 125 combined rating 12lb clear of Alyanaabi (113 after 7lb from the Dewhurst) with Ghostwriter (112, 2lb from the Royal Lodge) relegated to third and Haatem (110, 5lb from the Craven) promoted to fourth.

More significantly than that, however, two unbeaten horses who couldn’t have been given a chance on bare timefigures alone - Notable Speech and Night Raider - entered the fray because of the tools that now exist enabling their visually impressive wins in steadily-run races to be upgraded almost forensically.

Notable Speech held the better claims of the pair given a 37lb upgrade on the top of a 82 timefigure achieved at Kempton the previous month, which gave him a combined rating of 119, sufficiently convincing evidence for Timeform to go public and rate him as having better claims than all bar the disappointing City Of Troy who clearly didn’t give his running.

That 119 combined rating was indeed mightily prophetic – in beating Rosallion by a length and a half with Haatem a further length and three quarters back in third and Ghostwriter fourth, Notable Speech posted a 120 timefigure on the back of a near 99% finishing speed in a soundly-run race.

Rosallion (whose Jean-Luc Lagardere win last autumn was characterised by a sharp turn of foot but for which a timefigure wasn’t available) ran a 117 in second, upgraded to 119 after a 2lb upgrade is taken into account, while Haatem ran a 112 (upgraded to 115) and Ghostwriter 109 (upgraded to 111).

City Of Troy aside, this looks as solid a result as could have been expected beforehand and as Arc and French Derby winner Ace Impact also showed last year, whereas a win on the all-weather on debut in January might once have been considered an unconventional preparation for a Classic winner, it shouldn’t be any longer!

City Of Troy is still arguably the generational leader but has it to prove it after Saturday, while Night Raider is surely worth another chance after pulling too hard. I’d also expect Rosallion will show himself better than this too under a more patient ride.

The QIPCO 1000 Guineas the following day was no less fascinating and fired double-barrel talking points with valid arguments made, not that the trainer of the winner Elmalka Roger Varian would agree, that both third-placed Ramatuelle and fourth-placed Tamfana (a discussion on social media in which even her trainer David Menuisier became embroiled) could have won had things panned out differently.

Before examining their merits of both camps, it’s worth reminding ourselves that for all barely a length covered the first five home, the Guineas was soundly run (if not quite as strongly run to halfway as the 2000 had been the day before) with Elmalka’s winning timefigure (108) just 4lb below the performance rating Timeform awarded her on the back of a finishing speed that diminished rapidly to just over 96% in the final furlong.

There’s no doubt that Tamafana looked unlucky, rattling home in the quickest final furlong after being forced to switch when still travelling strongly in rear two furlongs out, but in a scenario like this – a well-run race, big drop off between the finishing speeds of the penultimate and final furlongs – the positional advantage is nearly always with those (if good enough) ridden with restraint and by having her effort delayed latest of all Tamafana undoubtedly conserved her energy longest before her eye-catching late flourish.

In contrast, Ramatuelle, who spared my blushes having doubted her ability to stay a mile after her reappearance in the Prix Imprudence, was in the heat of the battle all the way, took it up under three furlongs out and was still a couple of lengths clear inside the final furlong at one point before fading noticeably close home.

As it stands the data, and particularly that last-furlong data where her finishing speed collapsed to 92.7%, indicates to me that Ramatuelle (who’d beaten Tamfana in the Prix Imprudence) was the one who deserved more credit. What the data doesn’t reveal of course is how much ground Tamfana lost by being switched around runners or how much that lost momentum compromised (or even augmented) her finishing effort.

What seems certain, however, is that we are likely to be denied another clash; Ramatuelle holds upcoming entries at as short as six furlongs whereas Tamfana (whose trainer admitted on social media they had messed up and had added salt rubbed into his wounds the day after when his prize colt Sunway got turned over unexpectedly in a Derby trial at Saint-Cloud) will reportedly head to the Prix de Diane.

Elmalka looks sure to step up to a mile and a quarter at some point too and may well have further improvement in her with this having been just her third run, while Ylang Ylang found this trip too sharp at this stage of her career as expected but ran a sound Oaks trial all the same.

Other Newmarket eyecatchers

Three other horses caught my eye on the clock at Newmarket, though one of them, Sea Just In Time, who looked a top-class prospect, did so on sectional upgrades (12lb better than the horse that followed her home, Precious Jewel, who looks promising herself if not in the same league) rather than overall time (timefigure just 63).

Caviar Heights took the following listed race over the same trip in a time around five and half seconds faster that equated to a very smart 113 timefigure in a race in which the third horse finished over 20 lengths behind, paying a fine compliment to his Feilden conqueror Jayarebe in the process, while the mile and a quarter distance also provided the other eye-catching timefigure with Oaks prospect Friendly Soul following up her debut Kempton win with a ready defeat of Kalpana who herself had run out a ten-length winner of a handicap here at the Craven meeting as the pair came clear.

Earlier in the week at Ascot, Jasour had made a welcome return to form in the Commonwealth Cup Trial when reunited with Jim Crowley for the first time since their deeply impressive July Stakes win last summer. That win, where he looked potentially a top-draw sprinter, was followed by two blowouts, overdoing things in front in the Prix Morny then pulling far too hard in the Middle Park, but this convincing win in a 109 timefigure passing all of the field impressively just as he had in the July Stakes suggests his career is right back on track.

Other good timefigures relative to their contemporaries or divisional rivals on an interesting card were posted by Rock Hunter (94, an improvement on his Chantilly form under faster conditions and joint-third highest this year among the two-year-olds at the time of writing behind Monday’s Curragh listed winner Whistlejacket who was beaten convincingly by Cowardofthecounty on his debut but now heads the division by a long way on 106) and Quddwah whose 108 figure in the Listed Paradise Stakes represented another big step forward in his short career so far.

There were several talking points too at Punchestown last week in a Festival not unexpectedly dominated by Willie Mullins who won seven of the 11 Grade One races but not the meeting highlight, the Ladbrokes Punchestown Gold Cup, where his Cheltenham Gold Cup winner Galopin Des Champs was overturned once again by his old nemesis Fastorslow.

The Gold Cup was an odd affair in which the detailed Course Track data revealed that not only did Galopin Des Champs run a faster final half-mile than Fastorslow but the third Hewick did too and perhaps most surprisingly of all fifth-placed Appreciate It as well.

This looks very muddling end-of-season form as does the novice won by Il Etait Temps who’d twice finished well behind stablemate Gaelic Warrior earlier in the season, including in the Arkle, but turned around that form in a race that played more to his strengths than the ride Gaelic Warrior received did to his own as he sprinted each of the last furlongs fastest of all.

Galopin Des Champs and Gaelic Warrior were among the eight horses who started 6/4 or shorter across the week who got turned over, but Teahupoo, Lossiemouth, Ballyburn and State Man all had little trouble following up their Cheltenham wins. Spillane’s Tower continues to go from strength to strength and has done nothing to dispel my earlier-stated opinion that he’s a potential 2025 Grand National winner, while the 10lb and 5lb rises respectively meted out by the Irish official handicapper to Hgranca De Thaix and Perceval Legallois in what was surely the strongest piece of handicap chase form all week still leaves them looking two of the best handicapped horses in Ireland.

More Watch And Learn columns

• Arabian Crown lays down Derby marker
• Is Rosallion further behind City Of Troy?
• Grand National reflections: Farewell to the Aintree factor
• Fairyhouse Easter: Journey worth taking
• Doncaster: Horses to follow from Lincoln Meeting
• Cheltenham Festival: Even Gerri career-best can't floor Champs

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