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Watch and Learn: Timefigure analysis from Graham North

By Graeme North

Horse Racing

Wed May 01, 2024 · 7M ago

Our timefigure guru Graeme North analyses the big action from last week in England, Ireland and France.

Straight into the action this week and in a sign the Derby is just over the almost-upon-us Guineas horizon, two domestic Epsom trials were staged last week with seemingly easily the more significant of the pair being the bet365 Classic Trial at Sandown which featured the reappearance of last year’s Timeform 114-rated Zetland Stakes winner Arabian Crown.

He brought by far the best form to the table and not surprisingly didn’t even need to quite repeat that to stamp his superiority on proceedings under a smart ride (timefigure just 101, 12lb below the form rating Timeform gave him) that left little to chance.

Sent straight to the front without going off hard, he bided his time in front turning in as those held up scrambled to make inroads, clearly had the race in the bag in the penultimate furlong then strode clear in the final one which he ran faster than all bar four other horses all day on the round course according to Course Track.

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Fourth-placed Portman, who closed the gap slightly in the final strides, would have finished a length and half closer by my calculations kept closer in touch early on but he looks more of a Queens Vase type than a legitimate Derby candidate unlike Arabian Crown who possesses a good mix of speed and stamina.

He’s clearly the most talented of those that took part and won’t have any issues with an extra two furlongs but post-race quotes of 6/1 for the first Saturday of June look on the meagre side.

Earlier in the week at Epsom, Chief Little Rock (second to the Timeform 118-rated Ancient Wisdom when last seen) was sent off favourite for the Betfred Blue Riband Trial but couldn’t hold off not just Bellum Justum, who’d taken three runs last year to break his maiden, but Defiance too who’d finished sixth in the Royal Lodge on his second and final run last season.

The first two are in the Derby and though there was much to like about Bellum Justum’s attitude before prevailing in a 94 timefigure, not least his penultimate furlong which was reported as the fastest all day among those races on the round course, the runner-up emerges as the better horse once final three-furlong upgrades are taken into account and more superior than that those even if the final furlong is considered in isolation. That said, the form looks a rung below the level displayed by Arabian Crown later in the week.

Going back to Sandown, there were three other races over the same trip as the Classic Trial with the best of them being the Group Three Gordon Richards Stakes which went to the progressive Okeechobee in a time around two and a half seconds faster than Arabian Crown.

Despite that much stronger earlier pace, Okeechobee still ran the last three furlongs just 0.02 seconds slower than Arabian Crown, race fitness and a better suitability to the trip just enough for him to get the better of the reappearing Desert Hero (third in the St Leger when last seen) on his way to a smart 116 timefigure.

Goodwood Odyssey looked a handicapper to follow when staying on strongest in a good three-year-old handicap in which there was no hiding place (timefigure 90, just shy of his 96 form rating) while Siyola might only have posted a 61 timefigure in the novice but took the honours for the joint fastest penultimate furlong of the day which she shared with Lord North and ran faster than Mile winner Charyn whose furlongs either side (third last and final) were the fastest of the day as he made short work of some underwhelming rivals off a steady pace in a 91 timefigure.

The introduction of comprehensive sectional timing in Ireland on the back of exact reporting of raceday distances has been welcome, but no data is better than bad data which has the potential to mislead and Course Track’s published returns from Cork’s fixture last Friday seem dubious to say the least.

On ground that started off officially as soft to heavy and was then changed to soft after race two, all but one of the winners supposedly ran times over the last two furlongs anywhere between a second and getting for two and a half seconds per furlong faster than they ran the whole race with four of those winners, all of whom ran over a mile or more, supposedly running three consecutive sub 12-second furlongs throughout the last three furlongs.

Experience tells me something doesn’t add up here with the furlong measurements almost certainly the culprit and it’s a course I’m increasingly wary about for timing purposes.

Happily things made more sense at Navan on Saturday where Kyprios made a winning comeback in the Vintage Crop Stakes and Ezeliya won the Group Three Salsabill Stakes.

Kyprios had a stone at least in hand of his rivals at the weights on his best form and didn’t need to run close to that level but a fastest final furlong of all the winners on the day reads very well even if his overall timefigure (90) was just ordinary.

Ezeliya, who is out of a mare that was placed in the Irish Oaks, looks a sure-fire improver at a mile and a half and in a more strongly-run contest than this one (timefigure just 90) was but she didn’t look the biggest on the pictures I saw and looks a fair way off Oaks-winning level right now.

Two-year-old Camille Pisarro took the same maiden River Tiber won last year in good style even if his timefigure (57) was slow on account of a steady early pace, around two seconds slower through the first two furlongs than 2023 Coventry fourth Givemethebeatboys ran on his way to a hard-fought success in the following well-run listed contest (timefigure 103) over the same distance.

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The eye-catcher here, however and for the second time this season, was runner-up Betsen who once of all travelled best all over his rivals but lost out on the nod. He might still be a maiden after three starts but a drop back to five furlongs on a fast surface (he’s yet to encounter anything quicker than good to soft) should prompt a chunk of improvement and he’s in my notebook for the Palace of Holyroodhouse Handicap at the Royal Ascot.

Camille Pisarro might not have run a fast time but there has been a change at the top of the two-year-old timefigure hierarchy since last week’s column with Monday Naas winner Sparkling Sea recording a 95 timefigure that will surely see her lining up in the Albany with solid claims.

Her performance narrowly surpasses the 94 recorded by Cowardoftehcounty and gives Irish-trained juveniles the first four places on the grid at this early stage. Best of the domestic trained runners so far is Blewburton (84) who ran out a decisive winner in tough conditions at Leicester last weekend to continue Eve Johnson Houghton’s excellent start with her youngsters.

Johnson Houghton has already saddled four individual two-year-old winners in Britain or Ireland which at the time of publication is one more than Karl Burke and two more than the seven other trainers who’ve sent out two each.

Interestingly, Amy Murphy hasn’t finished any closer than fourth with the juveniles she has run here but in a nod to Willie Mullins she’s the leading trainer of winning juveniles numerically in France currently with all three of her runners there having scored ta the first time of asking and she runs one of those, Rock Hunter in the presumptuously-named Royal Ascot Trial Stakes at Ascot this week where he’ll come up against one of Johnson Houghton’s previous winners Tananger.

French juvenile races are generally easier to win at this time of the season compared to those in Britain and Ireland (Haynes took a youngster to France earlier this month who dotted up having been third at Southwell previously) and both an overall time and sectional comparison between Rock Hunter and the older winner of the claimer over the same distance on the same card suggests he ran to a fairly ordinary 75 on the clock that day.

It will be interesting to see how he gets on, but whatever happens I expect some shake up in the existing hierarchy in the next week or two with plenty of expensive breeze-up purchases on the verge of a first run.

France staged its first Group One of the season, the Prix Ganay, on Sunday. Victory went to the unconsidered Haya Zark who’ll struggle to confirm this form given the five horses who followed him home all ran a faster last 600m than he did, none more so than 2023 Grand Prix de Paris winner Feed The Flame who made up over four lengths from too far off the pace.

Pensee Du Jour blitzed home nearly as fast in the following Group Three Prix Allez France and is worth bearing in mind for a similar event along with fifth-placed Quisisana who was compromised for the second start running by being held up too far back.

The latest jumps season had a sad sting in the tale with news of the loss of top-class chaser Shishkin who was unlucky not to have won the King George at Kempton on Boxing Day and may have built more of an impressive CV had he been sent over three miles or more earlier in his career.

Jonbon soars over the last at Sandown

On a happier note, Henderson ended a jumps season he’d probably rather forget with victories for both Jonbon (169 timefigure, a career best) in the Celebration Chase and Fantastic Lady (141 timefigure, also a career best) in the Oaksey Chase on a bet365 sponsored card, though perhaps fittingly given he was crowned leading jumps trainer Willie Mullins took the feature Gold Cup with Minella Cocooner in a lowly 108 timefigure whilst also taking the Select Hurdle for good measure with Impaire Et Passe (100) who confirmed Aintree Hurdle placings with Langar Dan in a contest that developed into something of a dash for home.

Much had been written about the form of the Henderson stable before and during Cheltenham, with just one winner and 17 pulled ups between February 21 and March 15, but that’s a record another former Gold Cup winning trainer Henrietta Knight would have been swapped for her own since her underwhelming return to the training ranks.

One third place, a maximum performance rating of 95 (one of only two higher than 80) from her horses and 12 pulled ups from just 23 runners might not dampen her legacy but is a stark indication once again that past glories don’t guarantee future custom or success.

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