Watch and Learn: Timefigure analysis from Graham North

No doubt the Aintree executive breathed a collective sigh of relief at around quarter past four on Saturday afternoon when not only were there no fallers in the Randox Grand National but just four unseats (the lowest combined figure of falls and unseats this century), no serious injuries and not a hint of disruption by Animal Rising either.

The majority reaction on the uncompromising beast that is social media to the changes that had been made since last year – standing start, smaller run to the first fence (which was supposedly the same height as ever but looked tiny) and fewer runners - was unsurprisingly very different to the more accepting view expressed by racing professionals.

Plenty of the former expressed resentment at the changes that have diluted what was in their opinion a once-a-year unrivalled spectacle into something more akin to a cross-country chase (ironic really, given that the Grand National originally came into being as a cross-country steeplechase with very little of it taking place on the racecourse itself) while many of the latter agreed the changes were very beneficial leading to a better watch.

I can’t say I enjoyed the latest contest any more than the famous ones I grew up watching and I think it very unlikely we will again get a race like the one where Red Rum ran down an exhausted Crisp on the run-in or Andy Pandy being a long way clear when coming down at Becher’s Brook second time around, but equally it was just as if not more enthralling than many others with so many in with a chance for a long way. That's even if jumping ability, once the name of the game, is no longer the powerful asset it was with the winner I Am Maximus clear bottom of Timeform’s ‘jumpability’ ratings which attempt to assign a ‘jumping’ rating to a chaser indicative of its jumping prowess.

In a microcosm of what the race has become, I Am Maximus had been noted by Timeform as putting in an error-strewn round on five of his previous nine races over fences but ended up proving too well handicapped for his rivals while jumping barely adequately (Racing TV’s Race IQ data had him losing 16 lengths compared to eventual third Minella Indo, for example) , while the horse who topped the jumpability ratings, Coko Beach, jumped fine but found himself too harshly handicapped off a mark of 161 having twice cut little ice in the race previously off much lower marks.

In other words, the National ought to be approached going forward just like any other long-distance handicap chase with the once revered ‘Aintree factor’ no longer relevant. I Am Maximus’ winning timefigure was 145, a fair way below his 167 performance rating, suggesting the changes made to ensure a less frenetic dash over the early fences were to a large degree successful.

The National took place on ground that was officially Soft (Good to Soft in places) which was a far cry from the quagmire that was feared ahead of the meeting.

Much of the uncertainty surrounding the opening day centred on the well-being or otherwise of the Nicky Henderson string and though the leading trainer at the meeting for the best part of this century had a couple of disappointments, he would surely have taken beforehand the two winners he left with, including Sir Gino who landed the Grade One juvenile hurdle readily from the overly-keen JCB Triumph runner-up Kargese in a smart 146 timefigure despite some kamikaze hurdling.

The master of Seven Barrows wasn’t able to follow up with Shishkin in the following race, the Bowl, with the steady gallop causing him to look one paced while allowing the prominently-ridden runner-up Ahoy Senor to prosper back at a track he goes very well at, but the winner Gerri Colombe has never been one well suited by a steady pace either so it’s to his credit he followed up second place in a strongly-run Cheltenham Gold Cup with a win in this very different kind of contest (timefigure just 121).

Impaire Et Passe got the best of a very controversial finish to the Aintree Hurdle in a smart 152 timefigure without looking to me like the horse that thumped Gaelic Warrior in the Ballymore last year so providing Paul Townend and Willie Mullins with their second winner of the afternoon after Il Etait Temps whose easy Manifesto win over Turners two-one Ginny’s Destiny and Grey Dawning in a 159 timefigure suggested he might have run in the wrong race at Cheltenham.

It’s On The Line followed up his Cheltenham win in the Hunters’ Chase in a 127 timefigure while Sans Bruit denied Mullins a treble in the Red Rum under a superbly judged front-running ride from Bryony Frost, scoring in a smart 141 timefigure.

Incidentally, one of the shortcomings of giving horses, even experienced ones, jumpapability ratings is the necessarily small sample size of races over fences they have taken part in but the same can’t be said about jockeys who in contrast will have taken part in hundreds if not thousands of races.

Applying the same jumpability formula to jockeys in an expression of their ability to keep falls, unseats and errors to a minimum sees Frost in third place (behind Harry Cobden and Ben Jones) in the current standings among the 200 or so riders who have ridden in at least 250 chases this century. This listing shouldn’t be confused with ‘strength in a finish’ or overall rider ability which are best measured by other metrics, but two other female riders besides Frost feature in the top ten which ought to interest sixth-placed Ruby Walsh given one of them is Lilly Pinchin who he famously talked up as the next big thing a couple of years ago. Robbie Dunne, for what it’s worth, languishes in 121st place.

Cheltenham form was further upheld in the opening Mildmay Chase on Friday when Kim Muir winner Inothewayurthinkin had too much finishing speed for Turners fourth Iroko, winning going away in a 133 timefigure in the manner of one who’ll relish a return to even longer distances.

Sky Bet Supreme runner-up Mystical Power was half a length too good for the Cheltenham third Firefox at the end of a steadily-run Top Novices’ Hurdle, the winning timefigure a modest 118, while later on in the card in the Sefton Hurdle Dancing City (112 timefigure) reversed Albert Bartlett form with the harried-in-front on this occasion The Jukebox Man so enduring another frustrating day for Fergal O’Brien whose crack mare Dysart Enos had to be withdrawn on account of what connections considered unsuitable ground.

Henderson landed his second winner of the meeting when Jonbon took the Melling Chase with something to spare on his first if belated try beyond two miles, jumping much slicker than he had at Cheltenham last time with his 164 timefigure suggesting he’d probably have won the Ryanair had the stable’s fortunes been in better health at the time.

The Lambourn handler was also unfortunate not to land the feature handicap hurdle with Jango Baie who ran the final furlong almost a second faster than Firefox managed in the novice hurdle (and over three and a half seconds faster than the ‘fastest’ finisher in a plodding finish to the Sefton) according to Course Track having been badly hampered two out but for which he’d probably have won by three or four lengths.

Brighterdaysahead won the opening Grade One on the National day in great style if not a great timefigure (just 116) dispatching several Gallagher second and third Jimmy Du Seuil and Ile Atlantique with ease.

Her trainer Gordon Elliott had looked to have good chances of landing the Liverpool Hurdle with defending champion Sire Du Berlais following his eyecatching finish in the Stayers at Cheltenham but he missed the race due to lameness and in his absence the race went to Strong Leader who’d missed Cheltenham after looking an improved horse in his first try at three miles in the Cleeve Hurdle and proved that point in no uncertain matter with a clear career best despite a sloppy round of hurdling in a high 151 timefigure.

There was also a good gallop on in the final Grade 1 of the meeting, the Maghull Novices’ Chase which Arkle runner-up Found A Fifty was ridden with a bit more restraint than usual faced with several other front runners and he kept on gamely to deny narrowly Cheltenham faller Master Chewy in a 149 timefigure, just 5lb below his best.

Attentions turn to the Flat

The jumps trainers title being fought out between Paul Nicholls, Dan Skelton and Willie Mullins ought to ensure a more competitive end of season than is often the case, but my attention will swing mostly to the flat from now on with Newmarket’s Craven Meeting starting on Tuesday.

Over in France the Classic trials on turf have been under way for several weeks with last year’s top two-year-old filly and colt, Ramatuelle and Beauvatier, both getting their seasons under way last week.

The former was a warm favourite to land the Prix Imprudence over 1400m at Deauville but couldn’t hold off Charlie Appleby’s Romantic Style who had last been seen winning the listed Bosra Sham at Newmarket. The Imprudence was very steadily run – four seconds slower through the opening 800m than the Prix Djebel on the same card – which in theory ought to have suited Ramatuelle given the speed she had displayed at two but she couldn’t make any impression on Romantic Style in the final 200m having run the penultimate section a length faster and sectional upgrades suggest the result was the right one.

Whereas a return to sprinting is probably on the cards for Ramatuelle, Romantic Style is reportedly on track for a crack at the Poule d’Essai des Pouliches but she’ll have to step up another level again I imagine to beat the filly (Louise Procter) who impressed me greatly at Chantilly last month.

The Djebel went to the unbeaten Lazzat who was made to work much harder than he had been in his previous two wins at Cagnes-sur-Mer but being a gelding he’s ineligible for the Poule d’Essai des Poulains. Once again sectionals didn’t point to anything other than the result being the correct one, though the David Menuisier trained Devil’s Point ran better in third than it might look, paying the price for pushing Lazzat hard through the middle of the race.

Beauvatier made his reappearance in the Prix de Fontainebleau at ParisLongchamp. Ridden with typical restraint, he wasn’t able to catch the all-the-way winner Ramadan who had been a very easy winner of a listed event at Saint-Cloud in March, but ran the final 600m faster than the winner if not quite as fast as a couple behind him only for lack of race fitness to seemingly catch him out in the last 200m.

The race looked very muddling, however, and I’d be lying if I said he'd enhanced his Poulains credentials. I’ll deal with the other French Classic trials run recently as well the domestic ones due to commence this week in next week’s column.

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