Watch and Learn: Timefigure analysis from Graham North

Last week was a very busy one on the Graded front over jumps with no fewer than thirteen races currently hanging on to that status staged either here or in Ireland. A couple of those races had been salvaged from postponed meetings the week before, so skewing the figures from what had been set out in the Calendar, but given that six of that motley baker’s dozen could only attract a meagre four or five runners and only the Albert Bartlett River Don Novices' Hurdle at Doncaster luring more than seven, it’s hard not to conclude with another Graded race bonanza forthcoming this weekend there are far too many opportunities at the top level.

It is what it is for now, however, and while runners might have been scarce clues for the spring Festival clues weren’t, and I’ll start at Cheltenham where the track hosted an engrossing card on what has become known as ‘Trials Day’.

Spectacular Sir was exceptional

Anyone wanting a clue for the real thing (which is now a mere forty-two days away at the time of this article going to press according to one of the many rival Festival countdown clocks out there) didn’t have to wait long with Sir Gino laying down a spectacular marker in the opening race, the JCB Triumph Hurdle Trial. I’ve written about Sir Gino in this column several times this season, notably after his transfer from France to Nicky Henderson’s yard after winning at Auteuil and more recently after his promising hurdles debut at Kempton where all the foundations were in place for the sort of seriously impressive performance he managed at the weekend.

I don’t doubt he’s a top-notch juvenile and will take all the beating in the Triumph itself, not that’s nothing the market isn’t telling you, with perhaps the only potential upstart being a horse we haven’t seen out over hurdles outside France yet, Salvator Mundi, who was a length and three quarters behind him in that listed race at Auteuil when the pair drew fourteen lengths clear of two next-time-out winners and who is engaged at the Dublin Racing Festival this weekend.

As at Kempton, Sir Gino wasn’t flashy on overall times, posting a relatively ordinary 118 timefigure in a steadily-run race, but his acceleration from the last was exceptional, covering that distance to the line half a second faster than the 2023 Triumph winner Lossiemouth managed later in the card despite carrying 5lb more. The keen-as-usual Burdett Road, a Royal Ascot winner and now deposed Triumph favourite, had no answer to his turn of speed and I found his action on the run-in rather unlikeable.

Destiny calling

Next in was the Timeform Novices’ Handicap Chase and there are few races in the Calendar with such a rich recent history of producing Cheltenham Festival pointers. Subsequent Turners (Golden Miller) winner Stage Star took the race in 2023 while Mister Whitaker in 2018 and Simple The Betts in 2020 also won it en route to Festival handicap success, besides which 2022 and 2019 winners Imperial Alcazar and Kildisart both went on to reach the frame.

There must be a very good chance that the latest winner Ginny’s Destiny will uphold that tradition. He might have been awarded a performance rating by Timeform just 1lb inferior to Stage Star but so far as timefigures are concerned he rules the roost among the sextet mentioned, a 156 timefigure 7lb higher than Stage Star managed and 2lb higher than Imperial Alcazar posted. He might have been fortunate to have beaten Grey Dawning on his previous start after the latter had clouted two out, but that form had been made to look all the better after Grey Dawning’s Classic Chase romp in a 161 timefigure at Warwick and there’s not much doubting in both Ginny’s Destiny and Grey Dawning the home team have a couple of novice heavyweights to match anything the Irish have to offer, at least beyond two miles.

I’m not entirely sure what to make of the Paddy Power Cotswold Chase, a race that has a reputation as a Gold Cup Trial but for which race the latest winner Capodanno isn’t even entered. Thumped in the Savills Chase by his stable-mate Galopin Des Champs at Leopardstown over Christmas despite taking the seemingly favoured wide route, his win in receipt of weight from the other five runners among whom two fell and another was hindered by broken tack probably says more about the merits of the others unaffected on the day than him.

Certainly, the slow overall time (timefigure just 101) and finishing splits from each of the last three fences little different to those posted by the two earlier winners over two and a half miles indicate that a good helping of speed wasn’t a bad arsenal to have had on your side which wouldn’t make me give up yet on Stay Away Fay who has still to run in a race over fences that has tested his stamina as heftily as the Albert Bartlett did last year.

He could be very smart indeed

Unfortunately, there was no El Fabiolo in the rescheduled Clarence House Chase and that seemingly left the way clear for Jonbon at odds of 4/1 on to take care of four older rivals but he was very fizzed up beforehand went down by a neck to Elixir De Nutz after making a shuddering error at the fourth that almost brought him to a standstill. That he could recover to push the winner, whose 148 timefigure was just 2lb shy of his best, albeit having unwantedly hard race in the process, is testament to his huge ability but also it seems to me his vulnerability at two miles.

If there’s one thing that’s become increasing apparent about Henderson’s campaigning of his better chasers in recent years, it’s an unwillingness to step them up in trip until their best days are behind them. Gold Cup hope Shiskhin belatedly got the go ahead over three miles in the Aintree Bowl last year and Altior was kept to two miles in his final season when it was clear he needed further. I’d be amazed if Jonbon isn’t more effective at two and a half miles than two and the Ryanair and not the Champion Chase is surely the race for him now Allaho has been ruled out.

There were understandable cries for the aforementioned Lossiemouth to take on Constitution Hill in the Champion after her sparkling return to action in the Unibet Hurdle but it seems she’ll take the unimaginative route and head for the Mares’. A 107 timefigure is well below what she is capable of, not that she has ever been asked to run a fast time, a question she still has to answer, and the overall form looks unexceptional with the three-year older runner-up Love Envoi dropping back markedly in trip while third-placed First Street back in third hasn’t been in much form all year.

The other two races on the Cheltenham card, the Cleeve Hurdle and the final Novices’ Hurdle, went to Noble Yeats and Gidleigh Park in 136 and 127 timefigures respectively. Former Grand National winner Noble Yeats hadn’t been any match for useful French recruit Sa Majeste at Limerick over Christmas but was much better suited by this longer trip, ridden out to hold the evergreen Paisley Park by a head in a field full of veterans and potentially earn himself a crack at the Stayers Hurdle. Gidleigh Park’s performance was easily his best yet by my estimation, running a marginally faster final circuit than Noble Yeats and coming home from the second last almost two seconds quicker. When he learns to settle, he could be very smart indeed.

River Don winner a name to note

Doncaster’s Saturday card hosted three races, including the Supreme Trial Rossington Main Novices’ Hurdle which was back at its traditional home having been abandoned at Haydock the previous weekend. Jonbon was successful when the race was last held in 2022 and the Henderson yard, also successful in it in 2019 with Mister Fisher, went home with the prize again courtesy of Jeriko Du Reponet. He’d run a very fast late sectional at Newbury on his previous outing but despite finding himself in another steadily-run race (timefigure just 79) wasn’t anything like as impressive, possibly on account of some surprisingly quick ground, having to dig deep to see off four rivals, none of whom could have been described as notably useful or particularly promising beforehand. Not surprising then, to see his Supreme odds drift out.

The star attraction in the Yorkshire Rose Mares’ Hurdle was Gala Marceau, still the only horse to have beaten Lossiemouth (at last year’s Dublin Racing Festival) even if she has been beaten twice by her stablemate since. As it turned out, Gala Marceau fell foul of another stablemate on this occasion, Ashroe Diamond, but given she didn’t have race fitness on her side and was far more headstrong of the pair in a steadily run race (winning timefigure just 99) she would be no forlorn hope to reverse the form should the pair meet again very soon.

The River Don looked a well up-to-standard renewal. Runners-up in the last two renewals have been the subsequent Cheltenham Festival winners Stay Away Fay and The Real Whacker while 2022 winner Mahler Mission was unfortunate not to add his name to that roster having fallen two out when clear in the latest National Hunt Chase. The latest winner Kerryhill looks a smart prospect too. He jumps hurdles too big to think he might go onto emulate Stay Away Fay in the Albert Bartlett and even a 10lb upgrade from three out only takes his overall time rating here to 127 for this performance, but he’ll leave this well behind over fences in which discipline his trainer Ruth Jefferson is best known. Wodhooh (timefigure just 75) was barely slower from three out than Jeriko Du Reponet despite running a near-identical circuit time in the listed fillies’ juvenile hurdle but surely isn’t up to taking on Sir Gino.

Visually impressive Jade

Lack of pace was once again a feature of Doncaster’s Sunday staying feature, the Warfield Mares’ Hurdle, which went to Marie’s Rock in an 84 timefigure after she outsprinted You Wear It Well. She ran the distance from the last hurdle to the winning line faster than any of the other four hurdle winners on the card, who included the very promising Dysart Enos, but in view of the slow gallop her finishing splits were far form exceptional and I suspect this form isn’t as good as it might look. Little to add to what I’ve written previously about Dysart Enos other than her hurdling still has plenty of room for improvement.

Earlier in the week, Monkfish had made a satisfactory return in Ireland, winning the four-runner John Mulhern Galmoy Hurdle on just his fourth start since winning the 2021 Brown Advisory. Once again, the pace was slow (105 timefigure) but a slow pace at Gowran over three miles in deep ground is a very different test to three miles at Doncaster on good ground and any flaws in his fitness would have surely been exposed had they existed. The opposition wasn’t great – twelve-year-old runner-up Summerville Boy is well past his best – and he’d have to be a NRNB bet at Cheltenham given the state of the ground will surely dictate where he runs next.

Other Graded winners in Ireland last week worth a quick mention are Jade De Grugy, Zarak The Brave and Embassy Gardens. Jade De Grugy won the same race Ashroe Diamond had won the year before – the Solerina Mares Novice Hurdle at Fairyhouse– in more impressive fashion, visually at least, than her predecessor did, quickening clear from two out in a race that hadn’t really begun until the home turn (timefigure just 109) but given the number of her rivals already struggling by then I’d be wary about the strength of this form. Neither Zarak The Brave nor Embassy Gardens pulled up any trees on the clock, not unexpectedly given they had just three rivals each to beat, and there was another unsatisfactory element to Embassy Gardens’ win with runner-up Sandor Clegane sticking doggedly to the inner while Paul Townend on Embassy Gardens (132 timefigure) took the wide route so often favoured on the chase course at Naas.

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