Watch and Learn: Timefigure analysis from Graham North

March 10th, 2019; January 15th, 2020; December 4th, 2021; and November 15th, 2022. Four racing epiphanies in each of the last four jumps seasons, the instant realisation you have witnessed something very special.

To fill in the blanks the first of those was Chacun Pour Soi’s chasing debut in Ireland; the second was Shishkin’s first novice hurdle win at Newbury; the third Constitution Hill’s hurdling debut at Sandown; and fourth, more controversial perhaps, though still an outstanding effort within his own division given his turn of foot and closing sectionals made Gerri Colombe (who also won on the same card) look pedestrian, was the debut hunter chase victory of the still highly promising Ferns Lock.

And you can add to that list November 25th, 2023.

It took me a while to process the enormity of what Gaelic Warrior achieved on his chasing debut at Punchestown, the way he achieved it and the almost blasé reception it received in the ante-post markets for Cheltenham.

Make no mistake, this was an astonishing chasing debut from a horse who started off the 2022-2023 jumps season with a similar demolition job against far weaker opposition at Tramore, coming home 16 and a half seconds (over a furlong) ahead of the runner-up, and ended it with an easy ten-length victory stepped up to three miles for the first time in the Grade 1 Irish Mirror Novice Hurdle at the Punchestown Festival.

Gaelic Warrior’s versatility in terms of race distance had been showcased in between by his victory in the valuable two-mile handicap hurdle at the Dublin Festival and it was that speed that burned off his rivals once he jumped to the front at the weekend.

He never got as far as 16 seconds clear on this occasion but he steadily increased his advantage to the extent that he was almost seven and a half seconds clear jumping three out and he ran what I call the ‘mid section’ of the race, the distance between the final fence jumped before the winning post on the penultimate circuit and three from home on the final circuit, over eight seconds faster than Favori de Champdou managed in the Grade 2 Florida Pearl (over an extra five furlongs) and over 12 seconds faster than the Timeform 147-rated Idas Boy in what was a well-contested handicap chase.

Whether it was tiredness or a collusion between horse and rider that they’d done enough which led to a slowish finishing time from three out I’m not entirely sure but given the amount of time Paul Townend spent looking round before easing him up I’d bet long odds on it was the latter.

Timeform’s basic 128 timefigure isn’t outstanding by itself but a 33lb upgrade takes that to 161 and by my calculations, focussing solely on the time he took to run that ‘mid-section’, he could have posted something north of 170 had he maintained it to the line.

'Good enough to win any of the three novice events at Cheltenham'

It probably doesn’t need saying but that level is good enough to win any of the three novice events at the Cheltenham Festival. I doubt he’ll be targeted at the Arkle but I’d have him as a very short-priced favourite for either the Turners or the Brown Advisory (surely still his preferred option) and the reason he isn’t anywhere near that short is that his only two defeats so far have both come at that meeting.

Sure, his jumping has room for refinement but he never looked like falling and it’s sobering to think that if he is every bit as good as he looked here - and I don’t doubt he is - then Impaire Et Passe must be a top-class hurdler to have beaten him so readily in the Ballymore. Constitution Hill beware!!

There wasn’t much wrong with Favori De Champdou’s effort (timefigure 136) in the Florida Pearl but having finished 16 lengths behind Gaelic Warrior in the aforementioned Irish Mirror at the Punchestown Festival his connections will be hoping that rival stays at shorter distances.

His own 28-second sectional from two out compared favourably with that posted by Idas Boy, but he was helped by Flooring Porter hanging badly left once the loose got involved and with Affordale Fury (second in the Irish Mirror, ten lengths behind Gaelic Warrior) never really travelling and neither Sandor Clegane nor Quilixios bringing much to the table it was probably a case of him having not much to beat.

Even so, he looked better the further he went and it’s easy to imagine him ending up in the National Hunt Chase.

Bandit looks bet in the Triumph

Over the smaller obstacles on the same card, Champion Hurdle runner-up State Man accomplished a straightforward task in the Unibet Morgiana Hurdle with the minimum of fuss with neither his overall time (timefigure 137) nor his sectionals being outstanding.

On such a busy weekend with high-profile contests on both sides of the Irish Sea coming thick and fast it’s easy for a performance to slip under the radar and I was impressed with opening-race winner Mighty Bandit.

A 123 timefigure gets elevated to 127 after sectionals are included but I’d suggest he’s a fair bit better than that even. He ran a final circuit over a second faster than State Man by my calculations, matched him pretty much from three out and two yet then ran home from the last almost half a second faster.

That’s a very decent showing from a three-year-old in my book and why he’s still 16/1 for the Triumph I’m not sure, but I’ve helped myself to a good chunk despite already having struck two bets in the same market .

Things might have gone smoothly for Willie Mullins at Punchestown on Saturday but they didn’t on Sunday when Galopin Des Champs was only third in the John Durkan Memorial and Punchestown and Champion Bumper runner-up Tullyhill was beaten 1/8 on his hurdling debut.

I mentioned a couple of weeks ago that the form of the 2023 Gold Cup was looking increasingly shaky and events at both Punchestown and Haydock in the Betfair Chase did little to alter that opinion.

The distance of the John Durkan- just short of two-and-a-half miles - might have been on the short side for Galopin Des Champs but the same could be said equally if not more so about Fastorslow who’d beaten the Mullins star (as well as Bravemansgame) in the Punchestown Gold Cup.

That race hadn’t been truly run and neither was the John Durkan with the winning timefigure a lowly 120 after last year’s Turners fourth Appreciate It had been allowed his own way out ahead to the extent that he was still in front approaching the last fence.

With Blue Lord disappointing given the steady pace and his two-mile credentials, and Asterion Forlonge and Stattler both looking to be there for a pipe-opener, this probably isn’t form to place too much faith in but there’s no doubting the winner has a smart turn of foot running the distance from the last fence to the winning line getting on for two seconds faster than Imagine managed in the earlier Grade 2 two-mile chase.

If Galopin Des Champs was disappointing Tullyhill was more so, racing a bit keenly admittedly but even so dropping out far too quickly for comfort. His conqueror Shannon Royale posted closing sectionals that compared very favourably with the listed ex-French winner Hispanic Moon (who carried far less weight and ran over a shorter distance) and his win paid something of a compliment to exciting novice Willmount who’d beaten him in a point to point.

Don't get carried away with Dream debut

Earlier in the week at Thurles, Mullins had given Klassical Dream his first run over fences in a beginners chase and the former Sky Bet Supreme winner and high-class hurdler won very easily but I’m not convinced he achieved very much.

Thurles remains one of the Irish tracks Timeform don’t return timefigures from because their historical data (winning times at supposed race distances, since when they have change the course layout anyway over fences after too many falls at what was then the second last) doesn’t allow calculations of accurate standards.

Klassical Dream wasn’t pressed in front, running inter-fence times in comparison with the Timeform 99-rated handicapper Mcgrath From Clune that would only give him a figure in the low 120s at best using that metric.

Jumping well and winning impressively allowed an easy lead up against significantly inferior rivals is a much easier feat to achieve than when doing it against more talented horses at a much faster pace as Gaelic Warrior managed (runner-up Inothewayurthinkin is a 140 Timeform horse) and he’s got much more to do for me to prove he can reach the same level over fences.

Plenty of talk in this column from Ireland then – and I’ve not even covered Mister Policeman and Halka Du Tabert, both of whom made promising reappearances – but that’s where most of the significant action is these days and there was little to get excited about over at Ascot where Shishkin was the big attraction of the day – or was supposed to be – only to plant himself at the start of the Grade 2 Spa Chase.

More questions than answers after Betfair Chase

His refusal to race left the way clear for Pic D’Orhy to labour to an unimpressive win in a 144 timefigure in which he covered the final circuit no quicker than had the equally underwhelming Chianti Classico in the opening three-mile handicap, even running the distance from two out two seconds slower. Boothill took the honours over fences such as they were on a thin afternoon at the Berkshire track but probably wouldn’t have won had Saint Segal stood up at the last.

So, what to make of the Betfair Chase, a race won in spectacular fashion by the subsequent Gold Cup winner A Plus Tard in 2021.

Last year’s winner Protektorat couldn’t do the same double and he trailed in a well-beaten fourth this time around on his first start since a breathing operation so adding to a very patchy record in the top races. Theoretically that ought to have left the way clear for odds-on favourite Bravemansgame who’d finished three places and eight lengths ahead of him in the Gold Cup but four defeats on the spin now since his 2022 King George win and all by different opponents have taken a lot of the shine off his reputation.

Royale Pagaille didn’t look an obvious winner beforehand having finished fifth or worse in each of the last three Gold Cups, but Haydock is something of a specialist chasers track, even more so when the ground is riding more testing than it did at the weekend, and whether this represents a resurgence in his fortunes is a point for debate.

A 143 winning timefigure and some modest sectionals – his time from three out was the slowest of the four chase winners on the card – suggests to me his win was largely a result of others underperforming and I don’t see any reason for now to think he’ll fare any better in the 2024 Gold Cup than he has so far.

Intriguingly, that prize increasingly looks like it might well have a new name on it in next year. That name could be Gerri Colombe, of course, a favourite of this column who has been well supported in the market for the King George, or maybe L’Homme Presse who seems to have been forgotten about not having run so far this season but I’ll be looking among the entries to see if Gaelic Warrior’s name appears among them.

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