Watch & Learn: Timefigure analysis from Graeme North

Well, that was worth waiting for. I don’t mean the jumps season opener at Chepstow, of course, of which more later, but City of Troy’s comeback at Newmarket in the Dewhurst on his first start since running away with the Superlative Stakes back in July.

As I wrote after that performance, the 117 timefigure he achieved there was outstanding historically from a two-year-old over seven furlongs so early in the year. As I also wrote, wide-margin winners in the Superlative haven’t always gone on to hit the heights that might have been expected but that accusation seems unlikely to be levelled at City of Troy any time soon after a Dewhurst win that was just as visually appealing as his Superlative romp.

Other horses might have run faster Dewhurst winning times this century – U S Navy Flag tops that list - while such as Frankel and Pinatubo (both ran 125 timefigures, as did New Approach and Teofilo) might have posted faster headline timefigures but none has won by as far as City of Troy whose three-and-a-half length winning margin is the biggest in the race since Xaar in 1997.

A 115 timefigure on a day when time ratings were very straightforward to return might be middling so far as Dewhurst winners since 2000 go but a 10lb sectional upgrade after running the fastest final three furlongs of the day takes his overall time rating to 125 which is second only behind Pinatubo (126) for those winners in the period since Timeform started publishing sectional upgrades.

It’s hardly surprising that City of Troy is such a short-priced favourite for the QIPCO 2000 Guineas. Of those high Dewhurst timefigure horses, Frankel won it by a wide margin before going onto make history as Timeform’s highest-ever rated horse, New Approach was beaten a nose in it before winning the Derby and Pinatubo finished third in it beaten just over a length before winning the Prix Jean Prat (Teofilo never ran again).

The likes of Henry Longfellow, Rosallion, Dancing Gemini and Ghostwriter, all of whom have run much faster timefigures this year than those City of Troy beat in the Dewhurst, promise to test him more sternly in the Guineas but if he can put them to bed as readily as those he has encountered so far then he’ll deserve some of the plaudits that have prematurely already come his way.

Was the ground against City Of Troy?

I read several posts over the weekend that City of Troy won the Dewhurst despite the ground. In my experience, the ground is an overrated factor in assessing racehorse performance.

Sure, it’s important and sometimes the overriding factor when dealing with extremes – very soft or heavy, or very fast – but most horses aren’t hostage to the state of the surface in between unless it has been overwatered and become loose with race results more often decided by other contextual factors such as pace and position.

The ground at Newmarket might have been given out officially as soft but it wasn’t. The winning time of any race is decided by the ability of the horses involved, the weights carried, the pace of the race, wind conditions and the speed of the surface, and there is no more accurate definer of the speed of the racing surface - the ground, in other words - than how those times, adjusted for weight carried etc, compare to a set of standards compiled from thousands of races run over the same course and distance in preceding years.

All ground descriptions Timeform use in their race analysis are time-based and are frequently different from the official description, or those given by jockeys interviewed after winning the first couple of races on a card. The ground at Newmarket on both days as defined by Timeform was bang in the middle of good to soft and slightly quicker on Saturday than Friday (Racing Post had their time-based ground as good) and clearly didn’t hinder the fine-moving City of Troy one bit.

Sometimes it’s the unexpected things outside of racehorse performance that give you a bigger clue to their potential and for me the most telling indicator that City of Troy is a more exciting prospect that most two-year-olds that have come out of Ballydoyle in recent years is how very talkative the usually reticent Ryan Moore was when asked about the horse in a post-race interview.

For all his Classic triumphs and associations with numerous top-class horses, Moore has never ridden an outstanding one. His highest-performing ride until now has been Derby winner Workforce (Timeform 132) and his highest-performing two-year-old before City of Troy came along was Air Force Blue (123). If City of Troy rates a fair bit higher in time as seems likely, I suspect it will be natural progression that enables him to achieve that and nothing else.

There was some good two-year-old action at Newmarket other than from City of Troy, most notably Ancient Wisdom in the Autumn Stakes.

Third behind Rosallion when last seen in the Listed Pat Eddery Stakes at Ascot that has worked out so well, Ancient Wisdom won on Saturday despite looking uncomfortable on the undulations, changing his legs numerous times while hitting the ground hard before looking more at ease on the climb in the final furlong where he created quite an impression.

I doubt that he beat much but a 115 timefigure in the circumstances is highly commendable and suggests he’s more than up to winning Group races at a higher level next season.

Don't rule out 1000 Guineas for Ylang Ylang

Ylang Ylang reversed Rockfel Stakes form with the errant Shuwari in the Fillies’ Mile. Her recovery effort after being hampered by the hanging runner-up just as Ryan Moore was about to ask her for her effort is the sort of mental fortitude that tells me she’ll train on next year despite an apparent lack of size.

A 107 timefigure (no upgrade) for that effort is the joint-highest by a two-year-old filly this year in Britain or Ireland along with Fallen Angel and Porta Fortuna, her form lines with Vespertilio are arguably the strongest among her sex in Ireland and I’d be very wary of thinking the 1000 Guineas will be too sharp a test for her.

The 1000 might yet end up being a target for Godolphin’s Devoted Queen who made a very taking debut in one of the maiden races, displaying a very sharp turn of foot. Her 22.82 last two furlongs (Course Track) was the fastest of all the winners on the day by 0.6 seconds earning herself a 43lb upgrade on a base 56 timefigure, suggesting she’s already a 100 filly.

One of the Classics is probably on the agenda for another Godolphin youngster, Arabian Crown, who won the Zetland Stakes in a 104 timefigure from a horse I was impressed with last time out, Gaspar de Lemos. A 3lb upgrade takes his overall time rating to 107 and he looks a likely type for the Sandown Classic Trial next spring.

Realistic approach with Chepstow winners

It seems to me the ‘jumps season opener’ two-day meeting at Chepstow wasn’t showered with the same advance fanfare it had got in 2022 which is probably just as well given that none of the winners across the two-day fixture then even turned up at Cheltenham in March.

Predictably, it didn’t take long, however - two races to be exact - before the C word was aired with Captain Teague receiving 8/1 quotes (later pushed out after lack of interest, presumably) for the Ballymore after winning the Grade 2 Persian War Novices’ Hurdle.

A 133 timefigure is a none-too-shabby start of course, and no doubt his hurdling technique which looked clumsy at times will become more polished as he gains experience, but Captain Teague, who was third in a Champion Bumper at the latest Festival that looked a bit substandard and hasn’t exactly been working out well, looked all about stamina to me and the Ballymore is no race for slow types.

If there’s a C word applicable to him, it’s almost certainly the Challow Hurdle over the New Year at Newbury, a race his stable has won before with Persian War winners and which will provide the sort of test on heavy ground that he already looks to need at two-and-a-half miles.

Nicholls’ Knappers Hill was expected to make a winning debut in the listed novice chase on the Saturday but couldn’t catch the more experienced Unexpected Party. Knappers Hill, who won the Elite Hurdle and Select Hurdle last season, was the best of these over the smaller obstacles but even though a 145 timefigure first time out over fences is a decent foundation on which to build, I’d like to see him again as he didn’t strike me as a natural over fences.

Earlier in the week Punchestown had played host to a clash between 2021 Gold Cup winner Minella Indo, dual Glenfarclas Chase winner Delta Work and 2023 Gold Cup third Conflated in a Grade 3 run in the memory of the dual Irish Gold Cup winner Carvill’s Hill.

On the face of it this was a satisfactory return for Minella Indo, but neither his overall time (timefigure 133) nor his final circuit time or sectionals over the last three were flattering in comparison with the very ordinary handicap chase that followed it and I doubt this form will have much relevance several months down the line. If there was anything to take from the race it was the disappointing performance of Conflated whose last-of five effort was another blow for the form of the latest Gold Cup.

Concern over one of the Grand National changes

The changes to the 2024 Grand National announced last week attracted a great deal of comment with plenty of it being adverse. Among the headline proposals I’m behind the reduction in field size from 40 to 34 but the most controversial and for me sinister introduction is the power awarded the Grand National Review Panel (a nameless group of industry experts, apparently, whoever they are) to prevent horses taking part in the race if they have been adjudged to have made jumping errors in more than half of their previous eight races.

As the person who devised Timeform’s ‘Jumpability’ ratings, a rating assigned to a chaser that expresses its jumping prowess after considering any falls or errors he or she has made, as well as where and under what conditions those falls or errors took place, this proposal needs to be as transparent, fair and professionally administered as possible.

Not all mistakes or errors are equal, and one made at Cheltenham in the mud at the end of a gruelling three miles in winter is very different to a fall or bad error at Kelso in a summer jumps contest where they’ve pottered round. The review panel will need to demonstrate they understand that difference and have accounted for it accordingly, otherwise this has the potential makings of a kangaroo court.

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