Watch & Learn: Timefigure analysis from Graeme North

You know it must be a quiet week on the timefigure front when the leading timefigure on the Flat in the seven days just gone was posted not in one of the eight Group races that took place in Britain or Ireland but by a horse who didn’t even manage to finish in the first three in his race and is trained by Gordon Elliott.

The horse in question is Coachello who posted 108 when finishing fourth behind Batal Dubai in the opening handicap on Northumberland Plate day, but useful though he is, having won a listed race in Meydan back in January, there were far more interesting horses running elsewhere last week whose performances are worthier of a deeper dive here with the majority of them running, not unexpectedly, at the three-day Curragh Irish Derby meeting.

I’ve written before that the Curragh, much like its jumping equivalent Punchestown (which – groan – has now also started to stage Flat racing) is the hardest Flat course in Ireland to return timefigures from with races over shorter distances often having to be treated separately to races over seven furlongs and a mile with those distances too often having to be split from races over further.

Other than the five-furlong races at Naas last Wednesday requiring calculation independent of the two races run at the nearby trip of five furlongs and 205 yards, the recent remeasurement Irish racecourses have undergone hasn’t thrown many glaring curveballs at timefigure calculations. And other than the blanket-finish five-furlong handicap on Sunday won by Harry's Hill returning a figure slower than I might have anticipated, happily the Curragh figures turned out to be robust.

Fast times galore at the Curragh

The notable feature of the three-day meeting was the number of fast times returned, which may have had something to do with distance re-measurements but might also have been a consequence of very fast conditions with a strong wind helping the runners down the straight on Sunday when a good number of horses were withdrawn because of conditions.

To put those times into some historical perspective the one recorded by Harry’s Hill was the second fastest at five furlongs since 2016; Bucanero Fuerte’s Railway Stakes win was the fastest at six furlongs in the same period with other weekend winners at the trip Commanche Falls, Matrika and Coumshingaun also making the top five; Aussie Girl’s victory off an official mark of 80 was also the fastest over seven furlongs, faster than Pinatubo’s nine-length demolition job in the 2019 National Stakes; Blues Emperor’s win (official mark 87) at a mile was yet another to top the list while Via Sistina’s Pretty Polly win was the second fastest at a mile-and-a-quarter and Auguste Rodin’s Derby win was the sixth fastest at a mile-and a-half.

Once weights carried, weight-for-age, ability and wind conditions among other things are compensated for, fast times don’t necessarily convert to fast timefigures as evidenced by the headline 100 figure Auguste Rodin managed in the Dubai Duty Free Derby.

In a race that lacked any foreign representative and saw him sent off the joint-fourth shortest-priced favourite this century, he was no more than workmanlike in landing the odds in a time which despite the conditions was over six seconds slower than Galileo clocked in 2001, which remains the fastest this century.

A 17lb upgrade from three furlongs out takes his overall time performance to a more respectable 117 but he’s looked more about stamina than speed so far and connections of King of Steel might view this as a missed opportunity to exact revenge for a narrow defeat at Epsom given how close the runner-up pushed him under a seemingly less aggressive ride.

Pretty Polly heroine could be big York player

A much more impressive overall performance came from Via Sistina in the Yulong Pretty Polly Stakes. A 107 timefigure was the second best recorded by any horse last week but a 14lb upgrade takes her overall rating to 121.

She didn’t look well placed entering the straight but she must be a seriously good filly to power through in the manner she did to hit the front over a furlong out, so fully backing up the impression she’d made when winning the Dahlia Stakes by six lengths on her reappearance. I’m not sure she has got the full credit this effort deserves and I wouldn’t be taking her lightly if she turns up in the Juddmonte International.

In the feature two-year-old races, Royal Ascot form was franked with Coventry third Bucanero Fuerte winning the Gain Railway Stakes and Albany second Matrika winning the Airlie Stud Stakes.

Bucanero Fuerte, who I noticed in Total Performance Data’s Royal Ascot striding data had the longest stride of all the youngsters in the Coventry as well as the slowest turnover, posted a smart 106 timefigure, upgraded to 110 after sectionals are incorporated, in getting the better narrowly of Unquestionable with Norfolk fourth His Majesty over four lengths back in third. Getting back up on the line after being headed, it’s not difficult to see him improving another 7lb when he tackles seven furlongs.

Matrika wasn’t as taking in winning her race but a 100 timefigure was 1lb better than her effort in the Albany (Carla’s Way showed the longest stride and slowest stride turnover in that contest for what it’s worth) and she may yet do better given more of a break before her next race.

Going forward, of even more interest than those two winners however may be two horses who won maidens at the meeting, Ylang Ylang and City of Troy. The former, a seven-figure purchase by Frankel, is already favourite for next year’s 1000 Guineas and Oaks but more impressive on the clock - and visually too, arguably - was her stablemate City Of Troy who took the maiden his yard won with subsequent 2000 Guineas winner Gleneagles nine years previously in an 87 timefigure upgraded to 102 once sectionals are added on.

A full-brother to the smart Bertinelli, third in the King George V Handicap at Royal Ascot, his final three furlongs was clocked by Timeform at 33.37 seconds, over half a second faster than Via Sistina managed in the Pretty Polly later in the day, and he’s been introduced into the 2000 Guineas betting at 16/1 and Derby betting at 14/1. He’s one to follow.

Nashwa has questions to answer

There were fast times recorded too at Newcastle over the weekend where the five-furlong track record was broken in the Jenningsbet Gosforth Park Cup by Vintage Clarets (timefigure 95, not far off his 103 form rating) who was one of the horses who suffered unfairly in that stalls fiasco at Epsom on Derby Day.

There were records of other sorts broken in the Group 3 Hoppings Fillies’ Stakes later on the card, with Nashwa becoming the shortest-priced favourite to be overturned in the race since the switch to tapeta in 2014 (interestingly, the four shortest-priced favourites have all been beaten) and the winning timefigure being the lowest in the race in the same period.

The reason for the low timefigure was a very modest early gallop that saw Nashwa fail to settle and despite the advantage of a much more prominent pitch than the filly who beat her, Al Husn, who was the horse beaten six lengths by Via Sistina in the Dahlia, she couldn’t hold on as she wandered around. Unsurprisingly, she’s as big as 12/1 for the Nassau, a race Via Sistina is currently trading at 4/1 for behind Blue Rose Cen, who would seem to me an unlikely runner, and Soul Sister.

The wind had changed direction on Plate Day and was much stronger too, leading to slower times. Wider-drawn horses who raced off the pace dominated the finish of the Plate, the exposed seven-year-old Calling The Wind finally getting his head back in front for the first time since 2021, but from a timing perspective the performance of the day came from Tiber Flow who posted a 106 in the Chipchase Stakes.

Crisis, what crisis?

In an illustration that while form may be temporary class is permanent, the trainer best known right now it would seem for a winless Royal Ascot - even though he suffered the same in 2020 - struck with four of his last seven runners in June and has already fired in three winners this month.

A couple of those winners were particularly noteworthy on the clock, chiefly Star Of Mystery who won the Maureen Brittain Memorial Empress Fillies’ Stakes by four lengths with another four back to the second and the same again back to the third. Wide-margin wins in the Empress are not uncommon – Royal Intervention won by four and a half lengths in 2018 and Summer Romance won by six in 2019 – but though both ended up winning in Group company at three (Summer Romance won the Princess Elizabeth Stakes at Epsom while Royal Intervention won the Summer Stakes at York as well as a Group 2 in Germany) both suffered setbacks in the Princess Margaret Stakes at Ascot on their next starts.

The other Charlie Appleby (the trainer in question if you are unaware) youngster to catch my eye was Great Truth at Leicester. The stable was winning the race with an odds-on shot for the third successive year, their previous winner Naval Power going on to win listed events at Ascot and Haydock as a juvenile before running as if amiss in the Dewhurst, and Great Power is probably up to listed standard himself given he did just about everything wrong at Leicester yet still recorded an 86 timefigure upgraded to 90 once his finishing sectional is incorporated. He could improve substantially next time.

More from Sporting Life

• Racecards
• Fast results
• Full results and free video replays
• Horse racing news
• Horse racing tips
• Horse racing features
• Download our free iOS and Android app
• Football and other sports tips
• Podcasts and video content

Safer gambling

We are committed in our support of safer gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.

If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline / GamCare on 0808 8020 133.

Further support and information can be found at begambleaware.org and gamblingtherapy.org