Watch & Learn: Timefigure analysis from Graeme North

Last week was a much more interesting one than usual over the jumps with, unusually, something of interest pretty much every day. And as if to say ‘move over, your time is up’, the jumps brigade also took the traditional end-of-season finale on the Flat, the November Handicap, with the rains coming just in time for the mud-loving Metier.

Long before then, the week had got off to a fascinating start with the first appearance in Ireland this season of the 2022 Grand National winner Noble Yeats who must have been mentioned more often in this column last year than any other horse over jumps.

Pulled up on his reappearance in unfamiliar surroundings at Auteuil just two weeks earlier, Noble Yeats looked better than ever to me as he went head-to-head with the 152-rated Run Wild Fred on the final circuit at Wexford before pounding that rival into submission in a smart 143 timefigure.

It might be that consecutive falls late last season have affected Run Wild Fred’s confidence, and he’d be one I’d be very wary of piling into next time out after his tame head-high finish. However, it was hard not to be impressed by the running Noble Yeats still looked to have in him crossing the line and it’s interesting to note that he ran the final circuit – the distance from the last fence jumped before the winning line on the penultimate circuit to the winning line on the final circuit - faster than Impervious, the winner of the following two-mile beginners chase. Impervious had won at Grade 3 level last season.

Still just a seven-year-old, Noble Yeats' jumping looked more assured here than it was at times last season and I’ve no doubt he can scale new heights.

The following day’s Warwick card featured the chasing debut of Stage Star in a novice event that attracted a small field but was at least more competitive than most of its ilk with only one of the four runners starting at bigger than 4/1.

Detractors might point to his winning timefigure (123) being only 17lb faster than the nine-year-old Hawthorn Cottage (officially rated 112) managed over the same trip later in the afternoon, but that was due solely to a much steadier earlier pace and he came home from the third-last over seven seconds quicker and from the second-last five seconds faster. Like Noble Yeats, Stage Star featured often in this column last winter but didn’t quite go on as that one did, though he has since had a breathing operation.

He’s not a slow horse by any means, as his comparable fractions with Jonbon from three out showed when they both won novice hurdles on the same card at Newbury 12 months ago, despite Stage Star winning his race over half a mile further. Impressive though he looked, whether he’ll scale the heights over fences that he promised to over hurdles remains to be seen, with those two flops last season still fresh in the mind.

Stage Star’s trainer Paul Nicholls has been on fire this month and he won two of the three maiden hurdles at Chepstow on Wednesday with promising prospects.

The highest timefigure of the trio (113) was posted by Knowsley Road over two and a half miles, but I’d be very surprised if Tahmuras, who won the second division of the two-mile novice, doesn’t turn out easily the best.

His winning timefigure might have been only 88, and he arguably had the run of the race from the front, but he came home from three out, two out and the last easily the fastest of the trio, no mean feat considering the other winner over the same trip, the David Pipe-trained American Sniper, won a far more steadily-run race.

Rated 116p by Timeform, I’d say the sectionals Tahmuras posted here suggest he’s a mid-130s horse and he’ll have no trouble defying a penalty. The runner-up Bubble Dubi is also worth a mention, coming from well back to take second and he looks a banker for a similar event himself.

There was some good action on Friday on both sides of the Irish Sea with the Grade 2 WKD Hurdle taking pride of place at Down Royal and the Haldon Gold Cup dominating an Exeter card moved to form ‘West Country weekend’.

Last year’s Champion Bumper runner-up American Mike got Gordon Elliott, who targets this fixture, off to a winning start over hurdles in the Down Royal opener, though an 82 timefigure and a final circuit (as well as a finish from three out and also the last) barely any quicker than the 97-rated Jungle Prose managed in the next over an extra two furlongs is rather underwhelming.

His stable-companion Pied Piper registered a 111 in the feature hurdle in what was little more than a spin out, but the preceding listed Mares Novice was much more soundly run and went to the promising Magical Zoe, the youngest runner in the field, in a 128 timefigure as she came from the back of the field to power past some more experienced rivals.

Mighty Potter didn’t achieve much on the clock (96) in his beginners chase and his jumping can only improve, but it was an adequate debut over fences.

There was some overly giddy reaction to the victory of Greaneteen in the Haldon Gold Cup, one of two victories over the weekend by a Paul Nicholls horse carrying top weight in a prestigious handicap. Surprisingly sent off third favourite despite two of his rivals being out of the handicap, Greaneteen was sent straight to the front and was never in much danger.

A 151 timefigure confirms there was a tactical element to his win, however, and a slower finishing time from three out than Masters Legacy posted in the preceding three-miler suggests to me he was probably the only one on the day to give his running. The official handicapper has put him up 3lb and that looks harsh to me.

Earlier in the afternoon, the 2022 Stayers' Hurdle runner-up Thyme Hill had made a winning start over fences. There wasn’t much pace on, as a 104 timefigure suggests, and though he wasn’t far off the top of the tree in staying hurdles that level won’t be good enough against the stiffer competition he’ll face over fences in the new year.

As with Greaneteen, Frodon’s task in the Badger Beer Handicap at Wincanton was made easier by facing several rivals being out of the weights. Carrying 12-00, Frodon might have lumped the biggest weight to victory this century and defied a BHA mark 13lb higher than any other winner in the same time frame but let’s get it straight, he achieved nothing he wasn’t entitled to having once been rated as high officially as 169 and dropped a very generous 6lb since his final start last season.

Successful first time out in three of the last four seasons, ready to go again and coming here on the back of a wind operation, Frodon had pretty much everything in his favour dominating inferior rivals and a 153 timefigure rather suggests he controlled the race from the front a bit within himself.

He’s been put back up to 164 officially, but even more ridiculous than some comments I read that the 12-00 he carried was a welter burden were those suggesting the Gold Cup was a realistic target.

Sceau Royal ran well attempting to win the Elite Hurdle for the fourth time but couldn’t rein in the improving Knappers Hill who wasn’t inconvenienced by the drop back in trip. A 148 timefigure for the winner (he received 6lb from the runner-up) is another marginal career best.

Frodon only ended up running at Wincanton because the race he had been targeted at, the Ladbrokes Champion Chase at Down Royal, in which he beat Galvin and Minella Indo in 2021, was set to be run on unsuitably soft ground.

As it was, the race proved something of a redemption for Envoi Allen who was trying three miles for the first time since being pulled up at the Punchestown Festival in 2021. I don’t yet believe the step up in trip was the making of him as the race wasn’t strongly run - a 114 timefigure and a final circuit time slower than both Final Orders and Fury Road managed tells you that – and his superior speed at shorter distances looked to me the difference between victory and defeat against rivals who largely required a greater test of stamina than the race provided.

If you haven’t yet seen the race it’s well worth watching as the ride he received from Rachael Blackmore was outstanding, getting him to run straight despite wanting to constantly edge left and was top-class horsemanship at its best.

Envoi Allen wasn’t fluent enough at his fences for me to think he’s got it in him to win something deeper at the trip run at a stronger pace, however, but it’s good to have him back on song and his presence in the King George (Frodon’s next target, too) will enliven that race no end.

Al Dancer took the honours at a rain-ravaged Aintree in the first race of the season run over the National fences, the Grand Sefton. The race was largely incident-free despite the reputation of the fences (it has crossed my mind that the fences at some tracks this season have been made smaller) and the winner, who hasn’t always been a fluent jumper over regulation fences, was always up with the pace to score in a 136 timefigure.

A lot of the field were out of the weights, however, and a 5lb rise in his official mark for that looks to me to be an overreaction.

A few weeks ago, in this column I gave a good mention to Lot Of Joy after her game effort in the Irish Cesarewitch where she went far wider than most and made her effort too soon, running extremely well to finish third, so I was interested to see her make hurdles debut at Cork on Sunday.

I’d still be upbeat about her prospects despite getting beaten at long odds on as setting a steady pace over a trip that will prove too short in the longer term wouldn’t have been ideal, but it was hard not to be impressed by the winner Inothewayurthinkin.

A big strapping sort, he quickened up well and it was clear to see why he had been backed from double-figure odds shortly before the race. He can step up greatly on a 104 timefigure in time

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