Timeform's Graeme North is back with a detailed look at what the clock told us about recent action and some big performances at Sandown.
Last weekend’s mixed fixture at Sandown boasted a good number of Group or Graded races across both codes but while Saturday’s card saw the 2021-22 domestic jumps season end with Paul Nicholls landing a notable five-timer - albeit in calmer waters than might have been expected with several big names either on the sidelines or contesting Punchestown instead - Friday’s bet365-sonsored Flat card provided a tantalizing glimpse into the future with no shortage of potential on show.
The feature event, the Group 2 Mile, saw the return of last year’s Coronation Stakes and Sussex Stakes winner Alcohol Free but though she had plenty in hand on her 2021 form she managed only third behind another of her own sex, Lights On, who on the face of it turned in a career-best effort.
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A winning timefigure of just 61, however, suggests the form might not be all it seems, and sectional analysis confirms that the best horse in the race on the day was instead the race-fit runner-up Mutasaabeq who was backed beforehand as though he would finally make a breakthrough at pattern level and would have done so, and clearly too, had he not got pocketed in despite there being only six runners.
For all he should have won this, it’s worth remembering he looked a very different horse in big-field pattern affairs so far to the one that has bossed lesser small-field contests (biggest field for last three wins is five runners) and I’d be wary of concluding just yet that this is conclusive proof he can make the breakthrough at Group level.
The Mile was one of several races on the card where the result didn’t tell the full story, with the title of ‘unluckiest’ loser on the day going to Cash in the Classic Trial in a contest that bore an uncanny resemblance to the 2021 edition.
Then, subsequent King Edward VII winner Alenquer had got the better of the Derby and King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes winner Adayar but only after the latter had been set plenty to do and emerged the clear best horse on sectional upgrades.
Whether this year’s winner Westover or runner-up Cash will reach the same heights remains to be seen, but as in 2021 the runner-up came from a different parish to the winner despite the steadily-run nature of the race earning a 5lb higher upgrade from Timeform calculated from four furlongs out on the back of a last half-mile just over half a second faster.
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Discover Sporting Life Plus BenefitsThe more detailed sectionals available via Course Track, however, paint his finishing effort in an even better light. Not only did he run the last three furlongs and last two furlongs approaching 0.9 seconds (or approximately five lengths) faster than Westover but he ran the last furlong 0.67 seconds faster in a time of 12.1 seconds that was easily the fastest on the day on the round course and 0.39 seconds faster than next-best-fastest-final-furlong-finisher Mutasaabeq managed over two furlongs shorter.
Cash was awarded a Timeform large P symbol - used rarely, and only on horses who are expected to make significant improvement - after his only run as a two-year-old and given the abundant stamina in his pedigree I’d expect him to stay further for all his sire Shamardal hasn’t yet had a top-class representative (or a Group 1 winner) over a mile-and-a-half as a three-year-old (though Tarnawa did win the Breeders’ Cup Turf as a four-year-old).
There was no recognized Classic Trial for the fillies’ on the Sandown card, though the winner of the Nordoff Robins Charlie Watts Memorial, Emily Upjohn, is surely destined for one and maybe the Oaks itself after winning by nine-and-a-half lengths, the biggest winning margin of the week.
Ordinary her rivals might have been and modest too was her overall 77 timefigure, but a 12.7 second final furlong and a closing sectional of 109.8% translates into a sectional upgrade of 29lb taking her overall timerating to 106.
A winner at Wolverhampton on her only previous start last November (stable mate Aerospace who was much better backed and awarded a large P and is also by Sea The Stars has yet to reappear) Emily Upjohn has Derby winner Harzand fairly close up in her pedigree and won’t have any problems with a mile-and-a-half.
Wanees was another horse on the card that won with more authority than his winning margin – just half-a-length in his case – would suggest.
An opening handicap mark of 84 following wins in minor events at Ascot and Salisbury was seized on by some as evidence he was well handicapped, and a 7lb rise for this win might be more than connections would have anticipated but surely won’t stop him winning again given the amount he was set to do in yet another race that wasn’t run at a proper gallop, getting up late on after the runner-up had poached a clear lead and value for another two lengths at least.
By Le Havre out of a half-sister to the St Leger winner Masked Marvel, he’ll relish the step up to a mile-and-a-quarter.
Most trainers would welcome an Oaks prospect as promising as Emily Upjohn into their yards but John and Thady Gosden unleashed another at Haydock on Saturday when Nashwa ran away with the fillies’ novice over a mile.
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Discover Sporting Life Plus BenefitsHer winning margin wasn’t as far as Emily Upjohn’s - just the six-and-a-half lengths in this instance - and neither was her upgrade (15lb compared to 29lb) as high but the manner of her win was just as taking, powering clear over a furlong out despite having failed to settle in a steadily-run affair.
A Frankel half-sister to the useful mile-and-a-half winner Louganini, she’s clearly improved a lot in the six months since was last seen though her win also paid a compliment to William Haggas’ Golden Lyra who swept her aside with ease when the pair made their debuts at Newmarket last back end.
Haggas seems to have a never-ending supply of potentially high-class talent these days and I suspect his Maljoom is another judged on his two wins at Doncaster and Kempton this season.
The maiden he won at Doncaster has started to work out very well (three other next-time-out winners have come out of it) but it was his latest win at Kempton in a timefigure of 110 that makes me think he’s bound for Group 3 company sooner rather than later.
He might only have beaten three rivals, but it was still some effort to give start and a ready beating to Saga, a horse who’d pushed Coroebus close at Newmarket second time out as a two-year-old and sectional upgrades as calculated by Timeform put him on a 116 overall time rating. That’s a smart level for one who has had only two races and he looks sure to improve again.
I mentioned last week when discussing Prix de la Grotte winner Rosacea that I’d skip through the remainder of the French Classic trials in this column, and the news that Prix Imprudence winner Malavath will be coming over for the 1,000 Guineas has added extra interest to the first fillies Classic.
The seven-furlong Prix Imprudence was run at a much slower tempo than the colts equivalent the Prix Djebel on the same afternoon and produced unsurprisingly a much faster finish that saw Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf runner-up Malavath get the better of last year’s Prix Marcel Boussac winner Zellie by a length-and-a-half.
Sectionals published on France Galop show that Malavath is entitled to be rated another couple of lengths over the result, and given she finished two places behind the Nell Gwyn winner Cachet from almost the worst of the draw at Del Mar last autumn then with more improvement likely back at a mile she would appear to have top-four claims at Newmarket.
Otherwise, I’m not sure much of significance has taken place. The Prix Djebel at Deauville was won by Rock Boy in workmanlike fashion after he had been pushed along in last place at halfway, but the form doesn’t look worth much which can probably also be said about the slowly-run Prix La Force at Longchamp (in which sectionals suggest that Mister Saint Paul was fortunate to beat both Dreamflight and Valmer Magic) as well as the Prix Vanteaux won by Msqe De Sevigne.
With Ancient Rome disappointing, Welwal came out best in a bunched finish to the Prix de Fontainebleau, though the never-nearer Vadeni might well turn the tables on another day, while the horse that had beaten Welwal last time out, Junko, maintained his unbeaten record in the Prix Noailles where the seemingly-exposed third Garachico looked a shade unlucky after completing the last 600 metres fastest of all.
Finally, I’ve written before that there is so much sectional data out there right now that it can seem daunting not least for a newcomer unsure where to start, but the win by The Twilight Lady at Ripon last week at 14/1 shows that often the simple approach is as good as anything else.
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Discover Sporting Life Plus Benefits‘Missed the break and was always struggling to catch up’ was the analysis in the Racing Post after her fifth-of six Musselburgh debut, but Timeform were far more complimentary, noting that the penny was dropping late on after she had run green.
Camera work meant that Timeform were unable to return any sectionals, but those published by Course Track confirmed the penny was indeed dropping late on so much so that she ran the fastest final furlong to the tune of over three lengths!
I’ve often found that throwing out the first furlong sectional by a green newcomer is a good way to go when looking for improvement and this approach is a good way to uncovering horses that drop under the radar. The Twilight Lady ran the fastest last furlong at Ripon too (after the second-slowest opening furlong) and looks to me to have a fair bit more progress in her yet.
