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Watch & Learn: Timefigure analysis from Graeme North | Constitution Hill reaction
Our man on Constitution Hill's victory in the Unibet Tolworth Hurdle at Sandown, some notable performances in Ireland and trainers to follow.
Feedback from last column
‘Sectionals over the jumps (and flat in my opinion) mean absolutely nothing. It’s not a bland American race track!’ was one of the messages that came my way after the column last week, presumably in response to writing ‘Stage Star’s finishing sectional from two out in the Challow was also the best on the card, and he looks a serious contender for the Ballymore….Stage Star’s stablemate Bravemansgame won the Challow last year before finishing third in the Ballymore, but sectionals suggest Stage Star is a better horse and he’s still to be really let loose’.
Disappointingly, from some comments I have seen and heard, it’s not yet certain that either Stage Star or Bravemansgame will head to Cheltenham, but my comment about Stage Star could easily have applied to Constitution Hill’s chances in the Sky Bet Supreme even before he ran in the Tolworth Hurdle at Sandown this weekend.
As I wrote after his initial Sandown win in December, ‘If there was a Festival-winning performance on the card, however, it might well have come from Constitution Hill in the opening novice hurdle. His trainer Nicky Henderson has another strong contender for the Supreme in Jonbon, of course, but while he has a ‘game in hand’ so to speak Constitution Hill already has the points in the bag and goal difference too on account of a 142 timefigure and a finishing sectional from two out that was over three seconds faster than any of the other later hurdles winners managed over the same trip (mindful the ground had probably deteriorated by the final race) and over two seconds quicker from the final flight despite his own race being run at a much faster pace and in a much faster overall time than either of those two contests’.
Since writing that, of course, Jonbon has followed up at Ascot, hardening his place at that time at the top of the market for the Supreme, but even after that run I concluded ‘For me, though, on time at least, his (Jonbon’s) stable-mate Constitution Hill still has the more compelling credentials for the Supreme’.
Since all racecourses that stage National Hunt fixtures, at least over here, underwent race distance remeasurements several years ago and are now obliged (though it doesn’t always happen) to make rails movements and consequent added yardage public, there is little reason to treat race time and sectional analysis with derision.
Paddock analysis another vital clue
It might not be everyone’s first port of call, much like paddock analysis wouldn’t be mine in the height of the Flat season when most horses have had several runs under their belt, but often it can tell you something visual analysis can’t alone and being open to new ideas ought to be a guiding principle for anyone keen on improving their understanding of racing.
It is relatively straightforward over jumps to calculate sectional upgrades along the lines of those that are returned on the Flat (the exact calculation that Timeform uses differs slightly to the one used on the Flat in order to account for more properly the often-smaller finishing sectional distances used compared to the overall race distance) once typical finishing speeds for each course and distance are known.
Standard times for each course and distance are compiled in just the same way that they are on the Flat. Indeed, there’s a good argument for saying that, properly done, sectional interpretation over jumps is no less informative than its Flat equivalent, not least in comparison to somewhere like the States where run-ups, which can affect final time substantially, are often hard to establish even for those well acquainted with time analysis.
Leaving aside for now the rumours that have started to circulate about Constitution Hill perhaps being switched to the Ballymore, I’m not convinced he improved his Sky Bet Supreme chances much, if at all, in the Tolworth. Conventional analysis might say that he did, beating better horses than he did in his initial Sandown win and in a Grade 1 after all and not a novice, but the ability he displayed in the Tolworth had already been apparent on a dissection of his overall race time and closing sectionals on his debut.
His sectional that day calculated from two out was 6lb, giving him a combined 148 time and sectional rating, but had the calculation formula been readjusted to use the distances from the line from the last rather than the second last, using the figures in the second paragraph his upgrade and resultant combined time rating would no doubt have been a fair bit higher.
Constitution Hill’s sectional from two out in the Tolworth was the fastest of all the four hurdles on the day (for all that comparisons aren’t totally straightforward on account of the rain that fell through the day) and was worthy of a 25lb upgrade on top of his 129 timefigure. Recent Tolworth winners (who included the 2019 Supreme winner Summerville Boy) have been a pretty decent bunch overall, but Constitution Hill looks a notch above them and then some more. A return to less testing ground will surely see him step up plenty more on what is already a very high standard for a twice-raced novice.
Eyecatchers from Ireland
Staying in Ireland, Dunvegan and Blackbow took the timefigure honours last weekend, posting 155 and 156 respectively after their one-two finish in the Grade A Dan Joan Moore Memorial Chase at Fairyhouse on Sunday, but whereas Fairyhouse specialist Dunvegan is very unlikely to come across to the Festival Blackbow (who ran disappointingly in the Marsh last March) would be a very interesting runner in the Grand Annual. Forcing tactics around the Old Course (he was held up in the Marsh) at under two miles (assuming no rail movements) would be just his ticket and time is still on his side to fulfill the promise of that electric chase debut at Navan in 2020.
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Cheltenham isn’t the be all and end all, of course, not least for some smaller Irish yards whose sights might be set on some of the lesser races at their own spring and summer Festivals. One horse who could well be up to making an impact in that arena is Dancing Jeremy, who looked a promising recruit to chasing when winning the beginners chase at Cork on Saturday.
A time comparison with the following handicap won by Street Value might not suggest as much with Dancing Jeremy’s race taking around 13 seconds longer to complete, but he came home like a fresh horse in an understandably much quicker time from two out that raised his 69 timefigure to 113 after sectional upgrades are incorporated. Given he wasn’t asked any sort of question, cruising the last fifty yards or so, Dancing Jeremy ought to improve markedly upon this and so long as he stands training – this was his first run for fourteen months – I can see him defying a big rise in the weights.
Trainers to follow
I’ve been asked a few times over the period since this column has been running with whom would I put a horse in training once I’ve finally got some spare cash in place. Hopefully that won’t be too long and Nicky Richards over jumps and Karen Tutty on the Flat would be my answer to that question, but I’ve been increasingly impressed in the last few months by Newmarket-based Alice Haynes, now in her second year of training.
One of only a handful of trainers who entered a juvenile for the first all-aged handicap open to two-year-olds last autumn, and the only one that ended up running despite being well out of the weights, her representative Josies Kid couldn’t quite take advantage of the generous weight-for-age allowance after leading for most of the penultimate furlong. Haynes clearly has an affinity with sprinters - and identifying opportunities for horses out of the weights too it would seem - as, despite being ‘14lb wrong’, her Strong Power broke the five-furlong track record at Lingfield last week by more than a length.
Track records are usually a consequence of conditions on the day rather than an indication of absolute merit - like the previous record holder, Lihou, Strong Power was running off a BHA mark in the 80s - but even so it’s hard not to have been impressed by the progress she’s eked out of him this year and the form of the race he was second in at Southwell on New Year’s Day is almost certainly extremely strong form for the grade. It’s worth keeping an eye out for the fourth from that race, Not Now Zeb.
His recent efforts, including when trained in Ireland, haven’t always been helped by the draw, but he’s just getting his act together for new trainer Scott Dixon and is eligible for weaker races than he has been contesting since brought over here.