Watch and Learn: Timefigure analysis from Graeme North after Derby trials

Even ahead of the upcoming Dante Stakes, for which seven rivals are declared, I’m as certain as I can be in this great game that we would have already seen the 2024 Derby winner had he sadly not suffered a career-ending injury shortly after passing the post in the Boodles Chester Vase.

I wrote last week about how sectional analysis uncovered almost forensic insight into the ability of Notable Speech, in advance of the 2000 Guineas, not precisely quantifiable from either visual interpretation (for all he’d won two of his three starts in striking fashion) or overall race times, and the comments I made about him apply equally if perhaps not more so to Hidden Law.

Like Notable Speech and the 1000 Guineas winner Elmalka, Hidden Law made his debut on the all-weather, in his case at Southwell back in March when he was sent off second favourite but was touched off by Cadogan Place who was also making his debut and started favourite.

Looking at the race through old-style eyes it didn’t on the face of it look outstanding form or a race to keep a notably close eye with the race run at a crawl and the overall timefigure a very lowly 38, but dig deeper and the abilities of the first two, who quickened seven lengths clear of the remainder, can be viewed in a totally different light.

Hidden Law got the bigger upgrade (38lb) from Timeform on account of a faster final three furlongs but even then his overall timerating only came to 76. Upgrades from three furlongs out are all well and good when the race begins in earnest at or around that point, but what if the race doesn’t start to develop until much later such as just inside the two-furlong marker as was the case here or even later?

In order to answer this question as best you can, you need an extension to a basic sectional upgrade model that also incorporates and interprets times recorded for each of the final two individual furlongs, is weighted more heavily towards those than what went before and with the upgrade formula and finishing pars tweaked (so they better reflect the shortened sectional distances relative to the overall race distance, because a 115% finishing speed in the final furlong, for example, is harder to achieve and therefore more meritorious than a 111% finishing speed across the last two furlongs).

Having played around with such a model for the last two years, experience has taught me that 38lb upgrade for Hidden Law arguably rises to an almighty 80 at Southwell (it might be more or less elsewhere depending on the course configuration) using a weighted model that advances the final furlong most while Cadogan Place had his upgrade elevated from 32lb to 65lb.

A combined figure of 118 for a Southwell runner-up isn’t one that will sit at all well with racing traditionalists (Cadogan Place emerged with 103) but it’s all too easy to forget that routes into Group races are far more wide-ranging than they were even as recently as five years ago, and Hidden Law’s two subsequent runs show how accurate that initial estimate was.

A five-length win in a Newbury maiden was worth 81 on overall time but 111 using the approach outlined above (hand-taken sectionals at Newbury are compromised by camerawork unfortunately) while his Chester Vase win came in a much healthier 104 timefigure, which Timeform upgraded to 108 on sectionals from three furlongs out but which comes in at 123 – 5lb higher than he posted at Southwell - using sectionals much closer to the finish where he was at his most impressive.

Cadogan Place was all at sea on the track, so I’d put a line through this run and expect a better showing elsewhere next time but I doubt he’ll turn out to be as good as Hidden Law ended his career. The waning Dubawi as one scribe would have him was a non-stayer in the Derby himself, while none of his seven representatives have finished any closer than fifth, but I suspect strongly that Hidden Law would have ended that hoodoo. Sadly, we’ll never find out.

With Epsom in mind, what then to make of the other trials run this week, the Dee Stakes, the Lingfield Derby Trial and the Leopardstown Derby Trial?

The Dee Stakes was possibly the least relevant of the three. Hot favourite and clear form pick Jayarebe looked all at sea on the track to me and was surely a natural for Chantilly I thought instead of Epsom only to find out he isn’t even entered, which looks an oversight, and though runner-up Bracken’s Laugh ran the last three furlongs faster than the winner Capulet, so emerging with a bigger upgrade if those concluding sectionals are given greater weight, neither his overall timerating (99 using that metric) nor Capulet’s (96) get the blood pumping.

No more overwhelming on the clock was the trial at Leopardstown won by Los Angeles. Last seen winning the Criterium de Saint-Cloud, a race that has worked out well admittedly and was also contested by Bracken’s Laugh (fifth of seven), the Derby trial was steadily-run with the winning time slower than the following fillies maiden and not even a focus on the concluding sectionals last two furlongs adds much gloss to proceedings.

In contrast, the Lingfield Derby Trial, sponsored by William Hill, was well run with the winner Ambiente Friendly running out a four-and-a-half length winner in a 113 timefigure over the pace-setting Illinois (third behind Los Angeles at Saint-Cloud) with the remainder a further three-and-a-quarter lengths behind. This run, while not totally unexpected according to the betting, doesn’t really stack up with his previous runs (well held by Jayarebe on reappearance and beaten a similar distance by Dante favourite Ancient Wisdom on his final start last year) but on the flip side this was his first start on fast ground and a similar set-up at Epsom will give him top-four claims for all Illinois would be entitled to finish close the gap next time under a more conservative ride.

On the same card, You Got To Me (91 timefigure) took the Oaks Trial by a diminishing half-length from Rubies Are Red with the favourite Danielle a length back in third. According to the Total Performance data, the front-running You Got To Me reached the five-furlong marker 1.35 seconds slower than Illinois did in the Derby Trial yet still ran the last five furlongs marginally slower as Rubies Are Red (1.79 seconds behind You Got To Me at the five-furlong point) reduced that deficit to 0.1 seconds at the line with final furlongs of 11.29 and 11.88 seconds that were both half a second or more faster than anything any of the colts managed.

That suggests to me she got too far back for whatever reason but even then her overall time rating falls disappointingly shy of three figures. Ralph Beckett had also won the Cheshire Oaks Trial earlier in the week with Forest Fairy who got the better of Port Fairy by a head at the conclusion of a fairly-run race (timefigure just 77). As with the examples cited above, however, where the race doesn’t begin in earnest until beyond the sectional point that upgrade (4lb in this instance) gets undercooked and just using her final furlong sectional after which she’d been caught on heels for the best part of a furlong has her coming out in the low hundreds; in other words, probably 7lb better than Port Fairy on this result rather than the cigarette paper suggested by the finishing margins. Whether that’s good enough to win the Oaks remains to be seen.

One other notable performance on the clock from Chester came from Passenger in the Huxley Stakes. A well-beaten supplementary entry in the Derby last year after finishing third in the Dante, he got back on track in the Group 3 Winter Hill at Windsor on his final start but looks a much improved horse this year judged on his Chester run in which he broke the track record by two seconds. A bare 108 timefigure is just 1lb below his Dante effort but concentrate on his final two-furlong sectional and he’s worth 124 by my reckoning – the same as his updated Timeform rating – and there’s surely better still to come back at a mile and a half given how strong he was after being produced to lead.

Metro sectional

“How intuitive a punter would you have to be to have got those Longchamp winners?” wrote a bemused Chris Cook in his Racing Post column The Cook Review this week as he reflected upon a second successive weekend of big-priced winners in the European Classics before continuing, “Metropolitan beat one of his five rivals in his trial race a month ago, earning the in-running comment "never really a factor".”

Had Cook read this column that was published on April 24 he might not have found himself so perplexed. “He looks a live candidate for one of the colts classics in France as does Metropolitan who lost his unbeaten record on his recent reappearance after getting too far back (ran the last 600m fastest of all despite finishing fifth of six) but whose two wins at two had included a trouncing of recent French Group 3 winner Calandagan.”

Hopefully some readers helped themselves to the 25/1 widely available after that thankfully prescient write up and the good news for Cook in his quest to keep up to speed with events in France, as well as regular readers of course, is that I’ll be writing a weekly review of events in France as well as previewing upcoming big races in a new Sunday column beginning on the day of the French Derby, June 2.

By the sounds of it, Metropolitan won’t be turning up there, connections likely to persevere at around a mile, but it struck me straight away that of the horses in the frame behind him Diego Velazquez is the one who would make most appeal in that race anyway with a step up to an extended mile and a quarter just the ticket not only in respect of his strong-finishing effort from the rear in a race dominated by those that raced handily, but also his pedigree (Frankel half-brother to Ormonde winner Point Lonsdale) which is more stamina than speed.

Unfortunately, the tracking data which is so useful in helping unpick the nuances of racing in France (as well as Britain, of course) wasn’t working for the Poulains or any of the following races after getting wiped out by the violent storm that hit the track between the Classics, but it was working for the Pouliches which went the way of Rouhiya who reversed reappearance form with Rock’N Swing to deny narrowly Nell Gwyn third Kathmadu.

The Pouliches wasn’t strongly run – the finishing speed for the last 600m came in just shy of 110% - and the advantage on ground much livelier than many might have imagined earlier in the week was once again with those who raced prominently.

Rouhiya’s last 600m was only the fourth fastest in the field, marginally slower than those of Vespertilio and See You Around, but significantly slower than that of Rock’N Swing who found herself in no man’s land on the home turn in last place after her rider opted to drop in leaving the stalls but still managed to make up more than a couple of lengths on the winner.

Rouhiya had clearly improved from her reappearance, but Rock’N Swing had won that battle with some ease despite getting hemmed in and with better luck in running may well have won this had she not been so far back. The ground – officially good to firm – was presumably the reason for the poor showing of another horse I’ve talked up this year - Louise Proctor – while another of my favourites, Beauvatier, unfortunately looked to go amiss in the Poulains and ended up hobbling past the post.

More Watch And Learn columns

• Notable success in the 2000 Guineas
• Arabian Crown lays down Derby marker
• Is Rosallion further behind City Of Troy?
• Grand National reflections: Farewell to the Aintree factor
• Fairyhouse Easter: Journey worth taking
• Doncaster: Horses to follow from Lincoln Meeting
• Cheltenham Festival: Even Gerri career-best can't floor Champs

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