Watch And Learn: Graeme North timefigure analysis

“There are a few things that just aren’t done. Asking a woman her age, for instance, or openly questioning Sleepy Hollow about their performance.”

So wrote regular contributor ‘Glenn’ in 2011 in a discussion on The Racing Forum in response to yet another tiresome post questioning the worthiness of Timeform ratings to which he added, rather kindly, “They’re the best around. They’ve been around since 1948, so they’re obviously very good. We can leave exact statistics to our imagination.”

That shallow Sleepy Hollow moniker still endures occasionally in uninformed circles and was even referenced by my former colleague Jamie Lynch in his final written article for Timeform which you can read here in which he detailed extensively as well as somewhat emotionally the long-standing thought processes at Timeform alongside the desire to continually improve its offering by incorporating and often leading the way with cutting-edge data.

That article appeared in 2019 since when further advances have been made and what better week to test out some further potential improvements in the sectional pipeline currently being trialled than current fortnight where a good number of Classic hopefuls come under the spotlight in various trials?

In a nutshell Jamie’s article argues that tradition and modernisation can co-exist quite happily, and that observation might also be levelled at the preparations Classic hopefuls take nowadays on their way to the Betfred 1000 and 2000 Guineas.

Back in the day, if you had a filly a run in either the Fred Darling or the Nell Gwyn was the tried-and-tested method and if you had a colt it would be the Greenham or the Craven, and unless you are Aidan O’Brien whose last 1000 or 2000 winner not sent straight to Newmarket was Winter in 2017, those avenues are still persuasive.

But with Charlie Appleby breaking the mould somewhat by winning the 2000 last year with a colt who hadn’t even run on the turf or in a recognised Trial but had made his debut in January on the all-weather the lesson nowadays is surely that a Classic winner can emerge from anywhere.

With that thought in mind, some of the novice and maiden races that took place last week might well be more predictive so far as the Classics are concerned than the Fred Darling or the Greenham and in the case of one winner, Cosmic Year, who scored at Kempton, the ante-post market certainly seemed to think so.

Fifteen went to post for the Fred Darling which is the biggest field since Alcohol Free won a 17-runner affair in 2021 and though the starting prices might suggest a degree of caution in assessing the result with five of the first six home starting at 33/1 or bigger, the race was strongly run and in scoring by three-and-a-quarter lengths from Hey Boo, Duty First created a bit of history by posting the highest timefigure (109) in the race this century, so eclipsing the 107 recorded by Lahaleeb in 2009 and 104 by Alcohol Free.

Whether she goes close if she is supplemented for the 1000 remains to be seen but though neither Lahaleeb (tenth) nor Alcohol Free (fifth) made the first four in that contest they both went on to win Group One contests in their three-year-old seasons (Alcohol Free also managed it at four) and those historical precedents suggest that whatever you might have thought about her prospects beforehand, Duty First is a very smart filly, a much better one already then her four-race two-year-old career indicates. She is clearly deserving of a place in the 1000 line-up.

Given the race was so well run, you wouldn’t expect an upgrade of any significance to her timefigure but using her finishing split times available from RaceIQ she’s worthy of a 1lb upgrade bringing her overall timefigure to 110.

None of the horses immediately behind her were compromised by the manner in which the race was run so the result on the day looked the right and fair one and leaves the likes of Simmering and Mountain Breeze with plenty to prove although the connections of both were quick to blame the ground which was officially good to firm in places and they can justifiably look to Elmalka, who was beaten in the Fred Darling last year before going on to land the 1000, for inspiration that all is not yet lost.

It's not unusual for the Greenham to be run in a slower time than the Fred Darling but Jonquil’s 84.42 compared to Duty First’s 83.95 – a difference of 0.47 seconds, or 8lb at seven furlongs – was the first time the colt's trial had been the slower of the two since 2013.

The reason for that was the pace was much steadier in the Greenham than the Fred Darling with the leader Al Qudra reaching the four-furlong point around a second-and-a-half slower than the leader had done in the fillies’ race.

As such, it wasn’t unexpected that both Jonquil, who’d posted a combined timerating of 96 after incorporating an average 22lb upgrade for each of the last three furlongs on his debut last year, before disappointing on his only subsequent outing, and the runner-up Rashabar, who was second when last seen in the Jean-Luc Lagardere, should have earned themselves upgrades on top of their respective 101 and 97 timefigures, but a maximum of 6lb and 4lb respectively for each using the best of their last three furlong times, at least in respect of what they might have been expected to run given what had gone on up until those points, so taking their overall timeratings to 107 and 101 respectively, is perhaps a little less than I would have expected.

Certainly, Rashabar’s Lagardere form took a bit of a knock with Misunderstood managing to finish only third on his reappearance in the Prix de Fontainebleau the following afternoon, a race I’ll cover in my next French weekend review.

The novice and maiden races at Newbury’s two-day meeting often throw up a good horse or two but while the opening two-year-old contest went to subsequent Coventry winner Berkshire Shadow in 2021 and had seen Rashabar finish third in it last year, a bunch finish this year and very modest timefigures (42 for the winner Inca Heights) and sectionals suggest the latest renewal may well be substandard.

Consecrated won the first of the two maidens restricted to three-year-old fillies in an 88 timefigure worth 90 after the best of her sectional upgrades are applied. As he had on his only start last year, Gethin looked a smart prospect, managing an overall 106 timefigure/upgrade combination when defying a penalty in the mile-and-a-quarter novice, while Furthur, the winner of the eleven-furlong maiden, fared better of the two maiden winners who were trained by Andrew Balding (who now has charge of Jonquil with Sir Michael Stoute having retired) on Greenham day even if his overall combined time rating wasn’t madly impressive at 88.

One horse who did post an impressive timefigure/combination earlier in the week, however, on a day when several horses caught the eye on the clock was the aforementioned Cosmic Year who settled subsequently at a general 8/1 for the 2000 Guineas.

He’d won a novice on his only start at Sandown last year when his overall timerating came in at around 101 but he surpassed even that level here with the times he recorded for each of the last two furlongs combining for an upgrade than could be as high as 55lb using updated methodology which on top of his 57 timefigure suggests he’s worth 112 and almost certainly Group Two standard at least.

The same methodology gives Opera Ballo, the horse who Charlie Appleby ran in the same two races in which Notable Speech began his career, 116, and it will be fascinating to see if he can reach or even improve upon that level of achievement when taking in the bet365 Craven Stakes later this week.

The same Kempton card that hosted Cosmic Year had also seen Jane Chapple-Hyam’s filly Kon Tiki defy a penalty in a strong-looking novice in which six of the field were previous winners.

Using her finishing times for each of the last two furlongs (as with Cosmic Year, her race wasn’t anywhere near developing at the three-furlong pole, the usual point at which manual sectionals are taken) she appears to be worth an upgrade of 31lb, not quite high enough overall as yet to make her a potentially leading light in the 1000 Guineas for all her penultimate furlong was 0.2 seconds faster than Cosmic Year managed, but certainly worthy of a place in the line-up.

Fourth-placed Polygram, a stablemate of Cosmic Year and a half-sister to Expert Eye, might have finished fourth but looked second best of those behind the winner to me with her timefigure/sectional upgrade combination coming in at a level that is more than enough to suggest she’s a banker for a similar event on the back of this first run for nine months.

Catalina needs adding to trackers

Across at Leopardstown, the opening race on an interesting card went to Catalina Delcarpio who is another for the notebook.

Six of the seven runners held a Classic entry of one kind or another, which isn’t always significant where fillies are concerned, but the unraced winner, a daughter of Lope De Vega, put them all to the sword with a four-and-a-half length win, sweeping round the outside on the home bend before quickening right away.

The early pace hadn’t been strong, which explains her ordinary 76 timefigure, but a 31lb upgrade using updated methodology takes her to 107 and she’s surely up to winning a Pattern race, possibly an Oaks trial, of some description.

Back in third carrying the famous Aga Khan colours, Etawa also put in a very promising final furlong once the penny finally dropped, enough to think she’s nearer a 90-filly than the bare 66 her overall time suggests.

On the same card and in the same ownership as Etawa, Alakazi made a mockery of the median auction maiden, leaving his debut form (when seventh to current 2000 favourite Twain) a long way behind to win by over seven lengths. He’s arguably worth a 22lb upgrade on the top of his 83 timefigure, making him 105 and he’s not one to take lightly up in grade next time despite the lowly nature of the race type he won here.

Lord Massusus won the listed race on the card in a 100 timefigure, upgraded to 113, and so a good match for what he achieved on performance ratings, once his closing sectionals are factored in.

Paddy Twomey, the trainer of Catalina Delcarpio, was also on the mark at the Curragh later in the week in the Group Three Park Express Stakes with One Look, the filly of his trained to a tee for her debut at the same track back in 2023 when she looked a plausible 1000 Guineas candidate only to struggle to recapture that form at three despite winning twice including a Listed event.

However, a 102 timefigure is her best yet, albeit with a minimal upgrade, so she may yet hit the heights once predicted for her. If there was a performance from the Curragh better than either the bare timefigures or performance ratings suggest it was probably the two-year-old maiden won by three lengths by Green Sense, one of just two fillies in the field, only 80 on time but 96 by my reckoning on improved upgrades which already puts her in the picture for the Albany Stakes at Royal Ascot.

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