Watch And Learn: Graeme North timefigure analysis

Whenever I use statistics to support an opinion or simply provide some background context, whether those statistics relate to fastest race times, biggest winning distances or shortest starting prices, I’m always reminded of an article I read in a national newspaper several years ago by a multi-award winning journalist who explored famous French trainer Andre Fabre’s record at British racecourses and was surprised to learn that he had saddled runners at far flung low key venues he had never expected him to have runners at.

Only Fabre hadn’t, of course – the data was rogue as a simple sense check really ought to have confirmed. One of the more surprising venues Fabre has visited, albeit only twice this century, is Salisbury and he won the Group Three Sovereign Stakes there in 2018 with Plumatic. Unsurprisingly, Fabre didn’t have a runner there last week, but the track attracted another very rare visitor in the shape of Aidan O’Brien who my careful research tells me has saddled just five runners at the venue since 2000.

Unfortunately for him, or the punters who sent them both off odds on, neither The Parthenon in the Listed Stonehenge Stakes nor Butterfly Wings in a novice managed any better than third. The Parthenon, a maiden winner at Gowran after his Curragh debut, was particularly disappointing, finishing last of three on ground that was perhaps too fast for him given he’d had little problem coping with a steadily-run race at Gowran.

With York starting this week, I recreated the focus of the aforementioned article and looked at O’Brien’s runners this century across different British courses. In total, he's saddled 395 winners from 2590 runners at a strike rate of just over 15%, though the number of winners and losers would surely be higher and lower respectively had not so many of his runners been sacrificed as pacemakers.

How does Aidan O'Brien's record at York compare to other UK tracks?

Most of his winners (107) as well as runners (789) have come at Ascot while his best strike rates at tracks where he saddled more than 40 runners have come at Chester (a mighty 41.7%) and Lingfield Park (27.9%). For those readers looking for some guidance on whether to side with him at the Ebor meeting, York is high up on the number of winners – 35, behind only Ascot, Newmarket and Chester – but among those courses where he has saddled at least 40 runners the lowest strike rate with 12%.

O’Brien might not have had any luck at Salisbury, but he won both Group races in Ireland on Saturday as well as winning the Prix Morny with Whistlejacket so mirroring the exploits of William Haggas who won both Group races in Britain the same day having also bagged a big prize in France a few days earlier with the potentially top-class Economics.

Haggas’ double was initiated by Al Aasy in the Group Three Geoffrey Freer Stakes. Only three of the five that went to post held significant claims but even the concession of weight to that better pair didn’t stop Al Aasy and he wasn’t hard pressed to follow up his Group Three Glorious Stakes win at Goodwood by two lengths or run anywhere near his best to beat a below-par Al Qareem.

Al Aasy has been called some names in the past, including by his trainer, but he ran a 115 timefigure last year and might yet get back to that level again this year off the back of a stronger pace dropped back to a mile-and-a-quarter (he doesn’t need 13 furlongs). Haggas’ second winner came courtesy of Tiber Flow in the Hungerford Stakes.

The three-year-olds Kikkuli and English Oak both started shorter in the betting, particularly Kikkuli who was second in the Jersey but who’d been set a bit to do since in the falsely-run Prix Jean Prat at Deauville, but neither finished in the first three in a somewhat muddling contest where the usually more patiently ridden Popmaster briefly threatened to slip the field before giving best as Tiber Flow got the better of a tight four-way finish in a 103 timefigure, 5lb below his best on turf and 8lb below his best on all-weather. With his string in such good order, it’s worth noting that Haggas has saddled more winners than any other trainer at York’s Ebor meeting this century and at an impressive 15% strike rate too.

O’Brien’s first Group winner at the Curragh was Continuous who won a fair renewal of the Royal Whip by half-a-length from the International Stakes runner-up Trustyourinstinct and the Oaks and Irish Oaks fifth Caught U Looking.

Is Grosvenor Square big Leger player?

An 85 timefigure and a modest upgrade is well below the level he is capable of, but it was a step forward from his Hardwicke Stakes fifth and sets him up nicely for a productive second half of the season. Continuous’ biggest win last season, of course, came in the autumn in the St Leger and his stable-companion Grosvenor Square will likely head there after making all to win the Irish St Leger Trial by 20 lengths or, to be more precise, 3.58 seconds.

Grosvenor Square had tried similar tactics in the Curragh Cup on his previous outlining only to be reeled in by an outrageous finish by his stable-companion Tower Of London but there was never any likelihood of a repeat faced with more insignificant opposition and whether his win (to quote the names of two of his rivals) was A Piece of Heaven (third) or Absurde (fourth) depends what camp you are in.

The fact that 80/1 runner-up Courageous Strike could run each of the four furlongs fastest of all despite an official rating 22lb lower than A Piece Of Heaven and 32lb lower than Absurde is perhaps the best pointer to the worth of the form with the winning time translating to an ordinary 103 timefigure and 8/1 for the St Leger doesn’t make much appeal.

If there was an outstanding timefigure at the Curragh on Saturday, however, relative to the ability of the horse that posted it, it came in the nursery which was won by Girl Like You. A half-length win off a mark of 77 with the third another length and a half behind doesn’t ordinarily lay the foundations of a supersonic time performance, but there were three other races over the same six-furlong distance with which to compare the winner's time against, two of which were handicaps, as well as two other races over the shoulder distances five furlongs and seven furlongs and that’s about as concentrated a set of race distances as you could wish for to work with at the Curragh.

Both the first two are well bred individuals representing top yards (Joesph O’Brien and Aidan O’Brien) and this looks form to keep a very close eye on with the third home South Shore Island like the winner also suggesting a return to seven furlongs won’t go amiss. Girl Like You’s winning timefigure was 92, significantly above her 86 performance rating, and could feasibly have been 3lb higher at 95.

Girl Like You wasn’t the only two-year-old that caught the eye on the clock last week. At Dundalk, Bernard Shaw whose debut effort at the Curragh in one of the hottest maidens of the year (five of the next seven who finished behind the winner Hazdann, a rare winner by Harzand as a two-year-old over seven furlongs, and have run since won next time out with the other two either finishing second or finding trouble in running over a trip likely too far) earned him a Timeform large P, scored by nine lengths.

He received a performance rating of 97 for that and a bare 92 timefigure but factor sectional upgrades in and that time rating comes rises to 99. A $1,800,000 yearling purchase out of the Canadian Oaks winner, his sire Into Mischief is a multiple champion sire in North America but hasn’t had much success here so it will be interesting to see how his career progresses.

Strong form that must be followed

At Newbury Englemere recorded a 91 timefigure when winning the St Hugh’s Stakes, her third win from six starts, but if you want a race to follow for the remainder of the season look no further than the mile maiden won by Anniversary at Newmarket. In finishing 14 lengths clear, all the first four posted timefigures of 88 or higher with Anniversary coming in at 93.

Having all the first four return such a high timefigure in a two-year-old maiden is extremely uncommon - indeed this is only the seventh time it has happened since 2010 – and unsurprisingly is a reliable indicator of high-class form.

The last time it happened in 2020 was when subsequent Group 3 winner One Ruler beat a field that included four horses who also went on to achieve Timeform ratings of 108 or higher while the last time it happened at Newmarket (also in 2020) subsequent Chester Vase winner Youth Spirit beat a field who included the Jersey Stakes runner-up Naval Crown and the Breeders’ Cup Turf winner Yibir. Nathaniel, Sir Ron Priestly, Markaz and Line Of Duty are other top horses who featured prominently in other runnings of the magnificent seven so don’t say you haven’t been warned!

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