Watch And Learn: Graeme North timefigure analysis of the Randox Grand National Festival

“Aintree can be a depressing place when the rain is falling and the mist is upon the course, and it can be sad, too, when a National field is reduced to a round dozen before they come to the ‘Chair’ fence opposite the stands, but the sad occasions are heavily outnumbered by the times when the light is good and the National field rises to the occasion, and one sees a race with which there is none to compare in the world.”

So wrote B. W. R Curling, formerly ‘Hotspur’ of the Daily Telegraph in his book ‘British Racecourses’ back in 1951. For better or worse, and there will presumably still be some traditionalists who are reading this column, the days when the National was reduced to a dozen runners or less at the conclusion of the first circuit are long gone; modifications to the fences, number of runners, starting procedures, watering policy and even governance of entries by the National Fence Panel, an industry quango tasked with rooting out ‘undesirables’ and whose veto this year prevented the participation of the 2024 Midlands Grand National Mr Incredible on potential safety grounds (the horse had failed to finish or even start in nine of his last 12 races) have manifestly resulted in fewer inflammatory incidents than of old even though the modern-day test, more akin to a long-distance Gold Cup handicap these days and a much better spectacle for it in my opinion, still demands precision and respect at speed as Broadway Boy and his rider found to their cost after taking a nasty fall at Valentine’s second time round.

His tumble was seemingly partly a consequence of going off too hard in company with his stable-mate Beauport on ground that for it was well watered could still uncontroversially have been called good with the winning time (after a standing start) just over four seconds slower than Tiger Roll recorded in 2019.

While the remit of this column is to try and analyse performances against the clock, the paucity of races run over not only the National distance but the Grand National course itself makes landing the exact merit of the Grand National winning time on a pin extremely difficult, not least since the extent of watering on that part of the track (even if exact details are provided which they weren’t this year) will almost certainly be vastly different to the remainder of the course given the pressures the executive are under and, surprise it might seem for me to say it, but performance ratings would seem even to me a better validator of Grand National performance than timefigures.

Since 2000, 12 performances have been rated 160 or better by Timeform and, unsurprisingly given the recent changes that have been made, including a massive boost to prize money, the seven highest of them have all come in the last six running's with Nick Rockett’s 166 the highest winning performance recorded in the race this century and I Am Maximus’s 168 the best non-winning performance in the same period and third behind only the unforgettable Crisp (173) who was denied agonisingly by Red Rum in 1973 and Suny Bay (171) in the modern era.

For what it’s worth, Nick Rockett’s timefigure was 138, 11lb lower than the highest (149, Noble Yeats) posted by a Grand National winner since Timeform started returning timefigures.

Grand National Day took place on ground that former champion trainer Paul Nicholls called ‘perfect’ and judged on Timeform’s going allowances was little different to Friday if slightly faster than it had been on Thursday’s opening day, yet was disappointingly still considered to be too fast by the ever cautious Nicky Henderson who withdrew hot favourite Lulamba from what looked a very winnable Grade 1 Turners Mersey Novices’ Hurdle while Gordon Elliott also withdrew another high-profile entry, Teahupoo, from the Grade 1 Ivy Liverpool Hurdle.

In Lulamba’s absence, Cheltenham absentee Honesty Policy salvaged another disappointing Festival meeting for Elliott, whose season-long Timeform run-to-form metric remains a barely believable eight per cent down on what has come to be expected from him in recent years, hinting at a malaise at Cullentra stables beyond the increasingly part-time participation of stable jockey Jack Kennedy, out again for an extended period, these days, though his 122 timefigure played into the hands of the ability he’d shown hitherto at two miles, possessing too much finishing speed for Regent’s Stroll who (in a hood for the first time) finally showed something approaching the ability to go along with his home reputation so putting down the foundations for an exciting novice chasing campaign next season.

With no Teahupoo to worry about and the ground in his favour, 2024 Liverpool Hurdle winner Strong Leader looked to have good prospects of retaining his crown but he found his sloppy jumping holding him back and had to give best to Hiddenvalley Lake who had been third in this race last year but had looked an improved performer when second to Crambo in the Long Walk back in December and registered a career-best 150 timefigure here.

Kalif Du Berlais landed the other Grade 1 race of the day, the Maghull Novices’ Chase, benefitting from another excellently-judged, ground-saving front-running ride at the meeting from Harry Cobden, setting just an ordinary pace (winning timefigure just 136) and having too many finishing guns for his four opponents including the Arkle fourth L’Eau Du Sud who seldom looked like bolstering Dan Skelton’s sinking champion trainer hopes torpedoed in spectacular fashion by Willie Mullins one-two-three-five-seven finish earlier in the day in the big race.

Unsurprisingly, champion-elect Mullins dominated the opening day, rattling off a four-timer in the opening four Group races, kicking off in the Manifesto Novices’ Chase, a race named after a former Grand National winner ridden to victory by Lester Piggott’s grandfather Ernest, with Impaire Et Passe who had won at this fixture last year in the Aintree Hurdle when beating Bob Olinger and Langer Dan and was equipped with cheekpieces for the first time after missing Cheltenham.

Beaten by Ballyburn and Croke Park at the Dublin Racing Festival, he reversed form with the latter (who was very weak in the market and is surely a three-miler) in no uncertain terms while also putting Arkle winner Jango Baie in his place in a respectable if not outstanding 142 timefigure with the pair split by the seemingly somewhat-fragile Gidleigh Park who has taken big strides forward this season in his limited appearances.

An on-song Lulamba would surely have won the Boodles 4-Y-O Juvenile Hurdle contested largely as it was by horses who missed the Triumph in favour of the Fred Winter with one of those horses, Murcia, able to turn tables with the winner that day, Puturhandstogether, on much more favourable terms as well as a quicker surface not dissimilar to the one on which she’d created such a good impression when sprinting away with a Listed hurdle in France last summer, scoring by six lengths here in a 123 timefigure.

Supposed two-miler and right-handed mudlark Gaelic Warrior confounded more than one assumption held against him, though quite why those notions were still in place given he’d won convincingly at the Cheltenham Festival in 2024 and had run out a wide-margin Grade 1 winner on quick ground on his only previous attempt at three miles, when returning to his best and quashing it would seem any surviving pretensions Grey Dawning has to being a Gold Cup horse in the Bowl (timefigure 141).

Mullins made it four on the spin when Lossiemouth took full advantage of Constitution Hill’s second-last hurdle fall in the William Hill Aintree Hurdle; the contest had been steadily run and was just taking shape when the former Champion Hurdler hit the deck again, a bit too far out to be equivocal as to what might have happened had he stood up for all Lossiemouth was in the better position when it happened, but given the level she ran to without being fully extended he’d have had to run to this season’s best to have prevailed which may or not of course be as good as he is nowadays. Hopefully, he’ll be given the go ahead for Punchestown but it would hardly be a surprise if he isn’t.

Paul Nicholls has always had a soft spot for Aintree, not least in recent years when he’s found it easier to win races there than at Cheltenham, and he landed the Friday opener, the Mildmay Novices’ Chase, with his sole Cheltenham scorer Caldwell Potter who proved his trainer’s assertion that he’s better than a handicapper after another Cobden masterclass, executing front-running tactics to perfection in a career-best 147 timefigure, just 4lb below his performance rating, for all the race took a twist or two when Dancing City came down, bringing down Quai De Bourbon and badly hampering Handstands.

Salvator Mundi reversed Supreme form in no uncertain manner with clear form pick Romeo Coolio in the Top Novices’ Hurdle but the Supreme third wasn’t even sent off favourite in an ominous warning of things to come, that dubious honour going to Tripoli Flyer who’d been a late withdrawal from the Supreme but proved to be the first of two big disappointments at the meeting for Fergal O’Brien, looking a shadow of the horse who’d won at Kempton in February.

Salvator Mundi’s 151 timefigure would have seen him finish third in the Supreme had he handled the course which connections felt he didn't which is a piece of positional handicapping that, to me at least, makes plenty of sense.

Jonbon maintained his unbeaten record away from Cheltenham with a ready win over Protektorat in the Melling Chase, though looked to be nearing the end of his tether at the end of a strongly-run race (165 timefigure) and would have surely been given a bigger scare by the runner-up had the ground been softer, or perhaps even by the now-enigmatic El Fabiolo had he stood up, while the Sefton Novices’ Hurdle went to Julius Des Pictons, trained by Jamie Snowden who has done well here over the years with his limited runners, in an ordinary 125 timefigure after Mister Meggit had hit 1.11 in running before making of a horlicks of the last and losing three places on the run-in. It was still worthy of celebration all the same if only because British yards supplied the first four horses home.

The Flat turf racing season in France is just getting under way nicely, with two trials today at Deauville and three more at ParisLongchamp this Sunday. Those races will be reviewed and previewed along with anything else of interest in my French-centric column which returns this weekend, but for now I’ll touch on Calandagan, the horse who I believe was the best middle-distance three-year-old in Europe last year and who made his first appearance of 2025 in the Sheema Classic at Meydan.

Ridden by his new retained rider Mickael Barzalona for the first time since his debut at Deauville in August 2023, he wasn’t able to making his return a winning one, finishing second to the Japanese Derby winner Danon Decile, but he ran the last three 200m sections fastest of all from an unpromising position in as steadily-run race and calculating sectional upgrades from each of 600m out, 400m out and 200m out he emerges with a 5lb bigger upgrade confirming what it looked visually - that he was the best horse in the race. The Coronation Cup, reportedly his next port of call, looks his for the taking.

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