Watch And Learn: Graeme North timefigure analysis following 2025 Cheltenham Festival

Attendances might have been down again, forcing the new Cheltenham chief executive Guy Lavender to address the slump by initiating a thorough review, the number of beaten odds-on favourites (five) was the highest since 2020, while the number of false starts was, annoyingly, even higher, causing the defeat of at least one odds-on favourite according to connections.

However, other than that events at the 2025 Cheltenham Festival were reassuringly familiar. Ireland landed the Prestbury Cup, Willie Mullins trained ten winners again with arguably more of an iron fist than ever on things given he didn’t even have a runner in the Hunter Chase this time around, and Irish-trained runners dominated the handicaps. Not only in terms of number of runners but also, after a reverse in 2024, number of winners with their four-one haul in handicap hurdles compared to home-trained runners being the fourth time they have achieved that score or better since 2018.

The 2025 meeting kicked off on the Old Course on ground that was officially called ‘Good To Soft’ (Watered) and which Timeform judged on times (or, to be more exact, going allowances which is the difference between the times the winning horses have recorded and the standard times for those distances after allowance is made for additional yardage if any, weights carried and abilities of the horses involved among other things) to be the third fastest opening-day surface since they started returning jumps timefigures in 2016.

It was just about slow enough to be called good to soft by us, if slightly faster on the chase course.

Kopek timefigure of 159 seriously impressive

As has become customary, the fireworks on the clock on the opening day came in the opening Michael O'Sullivan Supreme Novices' Hurdle, on this occasion by the hot favourite Kopek Des Bordes. Wearing a hood, he took the first Grade 1 of the meeting (which featured, worryingly, just one British-trained runner who was 125/1 to boot) in a 159 timefigure at the conclusion of a strongly-run race that saw the time from the first hurdle jumped for the leader to the flight at the top of the hill 1.4 seconds (around eight lengths) faster than the Champion Hurdle and 2.6 seconds (around fourteen lengths) faster than the Fred Winter over the same course and distance.

That’s better than all other winning Supreme timefigures since 2016 other than the outstanding 178 recorded by Constitution Hill; the stiff task that faced the runner-up William Munny besides an indication of how well he ran is shown by the fact his 156 timefigure is the joint fourth-best in that period, fittingly alongside the one recorded by his trainer’s Marine Nationale in the 2023 Supreme when he was partnered by a rider in whose memory this year’s race was named. Romeo Coolio’s 149 back in third has also only been bettered by six other non-winners of the Supreme.

With that result in mind, it’s hard not to see the Irish dominating the two-mile novice chasing division next year but Irish-trained horses filled seven of the first eight places in the 2024 Supreme when the winning timefigure (149) was relatively pedestrian and still managed to get usurped by one of two British challengers in this year’s Arkle.

That victory by Jango Baie, after odds-on favourite Majborough had all but come down after a howling error two out, still didn’t look on the cards approaching the last fence where the field began to cluster, but the strong gallop (timefigure 158, well below the 169 El Fabiolo posted in 2023 or the 165 Gaelic Warrior managed last year) played into the hands of this two-and-a-half miler, who missed Cheltenham last year and had his last three runs (including two chase wins) over further.

He proved a very able - if unlikely-looking for a long way - deputy for the absent Sir Gino as he stormed home up the run-in after touching 300/1 in running.

The Ultima was controlled from the front by Myretown, whose slick jumping out including an absolute winger at the final fence still didn’t impress the RaceIQ crowd, who rated him only ninth overall on their Jump Index metric, the resulting timefigure being an unsurprisingly ordinary 118 while the Close Brothers Mares' Hurdle was ‘controlled’ too by Champion Hurdle absentee Lossiemouth who didn’t lead but stalked her inferior if still smart stablemate Jade de Grugy before sprinting clear to win by seven and a half lengths in a lowly 106 timefigure, testament to a very steady section in the middle of the race which in some respects makes the performance of third-placed Take No Chances marking up.

Burdett Road, Winter Fog and Brighterdaysahead all arguably need their performances marking up in the Champion Hurdle, not because of anything they did (or didn’t do as it happens on the clock, the last-named disappointingly falling away to nothing after travelling strongly) but because they were hampered at the last.

In a race of changing fortunes, Constitution Hill might well have won had he not fallen while State Man would definitely have won; as it turned out, the unconsidered mare Golden Ace was able to take advantage of multiple shortcomings elsewhere without really advancing her own form much, a finish from three out that was around thirteen lengths slower than Kopek Des Bordes despite the much stronger early pace in that race all combining to an ordinary 126 timefigure.

Fred Winter winner Puturhandstogether won readily by six lengths in 118 after the first-time blinkered Hot Fuss had gone for home too soon while Haiti Couleurs was another all-the-way winner on the chase course in the concluding National Hunt Challenge Cup.

Lion has some way to go yet in Champion terms

Wednesday’s opening Turners Novices’ Hurdle has been won by some very good horses in recent years including Bob Olinger and Envoi Allen who have been successful at more than one Festival and the Champion Hurdle is reportedly on the agenda next year for the latest winner The New Lion.

The New Lion wasn’t able to match either Bob Olinger’s winning time performance in the race (159) or the 152 posted by Envoi Allen but showed a fighting side to his character that hadn’t been required previously in ready wins in his preparatory races which included the ‘graveyard’ Challow at Newbury.

A 150 timefigure on the back of a winning time slightly faster (but finishing sectionals from each of the last three hurdles notably slower) than Jimmy Du Seuil, who carried the same weight managed in the Coral Cup, doesn’t shout Champion Hurdle winner to me, as Impaire Et Passe (148 timefigure in this race in 2023) who went on to be tried down that route found out, given he outstayed The Yellow Clay and Final Demand who had both been Grade 1 winners over longer trips already this season.

Jimmy Du Seuil was having his first race since the 2024 Punchestown Festival and just his third since finishing thirteen lengths second to Ballyburn in the 2024 Turners equivalent; he’d run a 142 timefigure that day but bettered that here with 146 and sprint finish (equivalent to 10lb as measured by Timeform) that would see his overall time rating grow to 156, enough to think he’s improved a lot in his absence and is ready again for a crack at Grade 1 company.

The aforementioned Ballyburn was in action in the intervening race, the all-Irish Brown Advisory, but it wasn’t he who landed the spoils after being ridden with restraint as if connections doubted his stamina, leaving him to pull hard and jump more ponderously than previously, but his stablemate Lecky Watson who had fared worst of the three re-opposers from last year’s Albert Bartlett but maintained his unbeaten record over fences with a defeat of the horse, Stellar Story, who had him back in fifth in the Albert Bartlett but was inconvenienced once again by the oddly steady pace set by Dancing City.

That left Lecky Watson (whose two preparatory runs had come at two and a half miles) to display the greater finishing speed.

The feature event, the Champion Chase, saw another odds-on favourite turned over as Jonbon was reportedly unsettled by the tape release at the standing start, leading to a tardy getaway and ultimately a bad jumping error which put him out of contention but from which he did well to rally and finish second.

Old rival Energumene looked a shadow of former days, as did Captain Guinness, so with Quilixios (who’d not looked a top two-mile chaser beforehand, eighth in the 2024 Arkle and readily beaten by Jonbon in the Tingle Creek) coming down at the last Marine Nationale wasn’t left with a lot to beat.

That said, he was strong at the end of a frantically-run affair, a 163 timefigure up to standard for a race he won by eighteen lengths, and this is almost certainly a better guide to his merits relative to the well-beaten Solness than their meeting at the Dublin Racing Festival when Solness had been aided greatly by an uncontested lead and a very wide course.

Jazzy Matty was the second winner in two days to have had a preparatory run over hurdles before his Cheltenham chase engagement, allowing him to win the Johnny Henderson in a 138 timefigure; Bambino Fever took a very-steadily run Champion Bumper in a modest 73.

File that under 'top-class effort'

The going for the switch to the New Course on Thursday, a day of four handicaps, started on ground not dissimilar to what has passed on plenty of occasions in 2016 with the Dawn Run Mares’ Hurdle kicking off proceedings.

The level of the winning performance has varied between 133 (Golden Ace, oddly enough, in 2024) and 143 (Laurina) since 2016 and the latest winner Air Of Entitlement comes in at the higher end of those figures, not least on the clock where her 138 timefigure is the third highest winning performance in the race and 5lb better than her stables’ Telmesomethinggirl who put up a 133 when scoring in 2021.

Caldwell Potter, who might yet be better at three miles, posted a 144 in the first of the handicaps, allowed his own way out in front and impressing even RaceIQ with his slick jumping that saw him take several lengths out of the field in a style reminiscent of his stable-companions Stage Star and Ginny’s Destiny over course and distance at their peak.

The Turners was the first of three races on the card over the extended two and a half mile trip, with the fastest of them by some way (over four seconds, or getting on for twenty-four lengths faster than Caldwell Potter and over thirty lengths faster than the other distance winner Jagwar) being the Ryanair which Gold Cup absentee Fact To File won with great authority (nine lengths) in a top-class 173 timefigure surpassed only since 2016 by the outstanding Allaho in both 2021 and 2022 (179 both times).

French raider Il Est Francais wasn’t at his best and though his trainer said afterwards in an interview with Paris Turf that he thinks he’s better right-handed it’s hard to see him giving Fact To File a match at Kempton in a King George seeing as he was beaten straightforwardly enough by Banbridge in the 2024 renewal in a 156 timefigure.

The aforementioned Ginny’s Destiny managed only seventh behind Jagwar, another future Cheltenham Festival winner who had run last time out in the Timeform Novices’ Handicap Chase, at the end of a steadily-run Plate (127 timefigure) in which the runners were well bunched for much of the way.

The same comments also apply not only to the concluding Kim Muir which went to the previous year’s fifth Daily Present in a modest 84, but the two other hurdles on the card, the Pertemps which provided a one-two for the Nicky Henderson stable as his Doddiethegreat beat better-fancied Jeriko du Reponet in 106 and the feature Paddy Power Stayers’ which went to Bob Olinger in 120.

Those are historically both very low figures, the Pertemps the lowest by some way since 2016 and the Stayers’ the second lowest after Penhill in 2018. Reigning champion Teahupoo had scored in a 149 last year on slower ground but found himself outspeeded by one with classy form at much shorter trips and who was winning his third Festival race after the Ballymore and Turners, for all it’s hard to imagine his win was more to do with shortcomings of his rival’s given the scenario rather than any improvement on his own part at the age of ten on his.

WATCH: Fact To File cruises to Ryanair Chase win

Wendigo run one to be marked up

The three hurdling newcomers, all of whom started at 50/1 or bigger, experienced wildly mixed fortunes in Friday’s opener, the JCB Triumph Hurdle, one pulling up, one finishing seventh and the other, Poniros, causing a 100/1 surprise.

Perhaps that one of them might have won possibly shouldn’t have been such a surprise give all had form on the Flat at least as good as the horse who was sent off 5/4 favourite after three wins over hurdles, East India Dock, who in running a 145 according to Timeform pretty much repeated the 146 timefigure he’d posted on Trials Day when a wide-margin winner from Fred Winter flop Stencil.

On time, at least, the signs are that the latest Triumph was a good-class running; not only did Poniros run the second highest timefigure for the race after the 150 posted by Ivanovich Gorbatov in 2016 but runner-up Lulamba ran faster figures than any other recent winner while East India Dock matched what Pentland Hills achieved in 2019 while surpassing marginally Defi Du Seuil’s figure from 2017 and Majborough’s from 2024.

Not only did Poniros run a time nearly four seconds faster than County Hurdle winner but he also ran the distance from each of the last three hurdles up to a second and a half faster as well. That’s not because the form of the County is in any inferior but because the mid-race section in the County - more accurately the bit from the final hurdle on the first circuit to three out - was contested at a much faster pace, leading to the race beginning in earnest earlier than the Triumph and the finish being slower.

Indeed, the same mid-section in the Albert Bartlett was run a second slower than the Triumph and over three seconds slower than the County, leading to a faster finish from its winner Jasmin De Vaux from the final hurdle to the line.

There are quite clear reasons (to me) for Jasmin De Vaux’s defeat at the Dublin Racing Festival that I won’t mention here as it might prove the basis of another column one day but will be very clear to anyone who goes back and watches the race in its entirety. The speed that allowed him to win the 2024 Champion Bumper was seen to good effect here too in a contest that only needed a 120 timefigure to win it, though Challow runner-up Wendigo would surely have finished much closer had the race turned into more of a test of stamina even before marking up the trouble in running he met and stumble he made after two out.

Concluding Martin Pipe winner Wodhooh, who looked well handicapped on her defeat of subsequent winner Joyeuse at Cheltenham in December, ran the fastest section of all the hurdle winners between three out and two out and wasn’t much slower than Poniros from the last on her way to a clear-cut win in the Martin Pipe in a 126 timefigure in a race in which the hyped-up French import Kopeck De Mee beat only two home.

The three chases provided contrasting figures; the Mares Chase went to Dinoblue in 151, the Boodles Cheltenham Gold Cup went to Inothewayurthinkin in 149 and the Hunters’ to Wonderwall in 109.

Dinoblue’s figure was the highest in the race since its inauguration and confirmation that she’s the best mare in training over fences, just as effective at two miles as two and a half and the beneficiary of a much more aggressive ride than she received in 2024 when failing narrowly to catch Limerick Lace who this year failed to show up.

Wonderwall qualified for the Hunters’ with two easy wins in Irish Opens back in the autumn and was sent off a surprisingly big price considering crack amateur Rob James was also in the plate for his top Irish point yard, but the day belonged to Inothewayurthinkin who was supplemented for the Gold Cup and after this win promises to start the shortest-priced favourite for the Grand National in history, albeit comparisons with previous years are in some ways superfluous given the race now is a vastly different vessel than the one it used to be.

Inothewayurthinkin ran the final circuit getting on for half a second faster than Dinoblue and came home even faster from three out despite running the section between the third last around four lengths slower as he eased into the race.

Conditions looked plenty fast enough for reigning champion Galopin Des Champs, comments that also apply to also-rans Monty’s Star and The Real Whacker, while the one horse that might have been expected to have been ideally suited by them, Banbridge, never showed up.

Hopefully the winner will be back to defend his crown next season, though with the exception of Fact To File and perhaps Grey Dawning, it’s hard to know right now where potential competition will come from.

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