Tony Calvin previews the weekend's international rugby union action

Recommended bets:

2pts France/Wales HT-FT at 10/1 (8-1 or bigger acceptable)

If you gave Ireland a four-try, one-point bonus victory over Italy at the Aviva on Saturday right now, I suspect the home management might just take it and move on to the all-important final round of Six Nations matches next week.

After all, that would be a case of the bare-minimum accomplished and see them harden slightly as second favourites to take the title behind odds-on chances England.

They probably wouldn’t be too happy, as edging home by a point would have meant some nervous moments and a badly under-par performance against the tournament’s whipping boys, but this is Ireland’s first blow-out since losing 24-12 at Twickenham in February and they are blooding four uncapped players in the squad, so we probably should not be expecting cohesive fireworks from the home team.

So the dilemma and pitfalls, for potential backers of 1/66 chances Ireland on the general 28-point handicap line are clear.

I was obviously pushing it to suggest that Andy Farrell would be content with scraping a win – though I think it made for a passable intro, which was the intention - but these are strange times, and playing a Six Nations game lacking a crowd and the unlikely focus that comes with a braying, alcohol-fuelled atmosphere is perhaps not compatible with precision, clinical international rugby.

We have seen some bizarre scorelines in the Premiership since its return – Wasps tonking Bristol 47-24 is a recent case in point - and it is not hard to see a similar scenario unfolding here, if the teams play fast and loose, and without their usual structure.

Not that Italy tend to have that much structure, and run in tries for fun at the best of times.

It was only back in February that Wales put 42 unanswered points on them in Cardiff, and Scotland didn’t give them a sniff in a 17-0 home defeat, either.

Ireland to win to nil at 11/1 (Boylesports) anyone?

Those Italian performances were woeful and error-strewn, but they can mix it and score points if the opposition get bored and throw it around, as France did in a 35-22 victory after getting their bonus-point try on 59 minutes.

Ireland do tend to run away with this fixture though, and they have covered that 28-point handicap in the last four Dublin meetings, with winning margins of 32, 39, 43 and 37, with Italy’s 22-15 win in Rome in 2013 punctuating some proper hidings home and away.

And on paper this Ireland three-quarter line should be having their opposites for breakfast, lunch and dinner.

And still have plenty of room for a late supper after they have chewed them up and spat them out.

As ever, the Italian pack should pretty much stand their ground – though their front five is very light on caps - while their back-row is once again an impressive-looking unit (on paper at least), but you do fear for their backs.

Italian coach Franco Smith has picked a young and inexperienced side, and none more so than his left-field selection of fly-half Paolo Garbisi.

I’ll be honest with you, I had never heard of him until the team came through, and a quick google revealed why, as apparently he has only played three times at PRO 14 level, making his debut in August, so how he is going to cope if the likes of Bundee Aki come barreling down his channel is anyone’s guess.

But, to give him his due, he did score a try, and kick three conversions and a penalty in Benetton’s 35-24 loss in Ulster at the start of the month – the Italian side led 24-21 at one point – so maybe he does have a bit of star quality about him.

However, all this chat doesn’t bring us any closer to a bet.

I could not play on the handicap line given what could be a soul-less occasion in the Aviva, with the foot-off-the-pedal factor looming large – though I would side with Ireland giving away the start, if pushed, even if they were not convincing back in the winter and spring – so I had a dig down into the secondary and special markets.

The usual punt with Italy is getting with them on the first-time handicap before they fall away – in this case generally around the 13.5 point mark – but I genuinely could not find a bet that I was willing to have myself.

Sometimes that happens, and you shouldn’t fight it.

I did look at some of the other weekend internationals though, and France v Wales in the Stade de France on Saturday night promises to be an absolute cracker.

Both France and Wales are treating this as a full-on international ahead of resuming their Six Nations campaigns next week, and have picked their best available XVs.

And pretty much their best sides, with France going into the game as around 1-2 favourites on home soil.

Now, if Italy on the first-time handicap is a popular bet with many, then backing France/Wales HT-FT double-result – that is France to be leading at half-time, and Wales to be winning at full-time, for the uninitiated – should always be looked at.

I suggest you have a little tickle at 10/1 here (Unibet, 888), and the generally available 8-1 and 9s elsewhere in the marketplace is very acceptable if you can’t access that or it goes quickly.

Matches between these sides have tended to be very tight affairs in recent years, with the winning margin a converted try or less in six of the last seven meetings, and the other result was a nine-point victory.

France led 17-9 at half-time in their most recent encounter with Wales in the Six Nations earlier in the year and held on to win 27-23, but they were clinging on for dear life at the end and Wales would have won that game comfortably – and should have anyway – but for a second-half interception try that was basically a 14-point swing.

But in their two previous clashes, France threw away 16-0 and 19-10 intervals leads, though, to be fair, Wales may have used up all their Six Nations luck in the latter, their 20-19 World Cup quarter-final win when they were awarded a very dubious try and were also the beneficiary of France seeing red.

So you could argue that the France/Wales HT-FT bet should really have copped on the last three occasions, fortuitous or not. It has definitely been a case of France dominating the first half, and Wales the second.

And in their previous four games, the leading margin at half-time was never more than four points (four, one and three points twice), indicating that these are tight, see-sawing fixtures.

And it is not just head-to-heads that give this bet credence, as France do tend to fall away whatever the opposition, even with Shaun Edwards doing the barking it seems.

They lost the second-half 17-7 to England in this competition after going in 17-0 up, and it was even 12-12 after the interval against Italy in February.

Wales are 7/5 just to win the second half, by the way.

I have to credit rugby analyst Russ Petty from Twitter for these stats – always good to namecheck when you steal someone else’s work to help bolster a case - and France’s performances at home since 2019 have seen them collectively lead 105-23 at half-time, but only win the second half 79-72.

And while France have been ahead at half-time in in 16 of their 19 Tests since November 2018, they have won the second half just seven times.

I do like the look of this French side, and their bench, but with statistics like that I am betting against them if and when it gets down and dirty.

I just hope they go down the tunnel in front on 40 minutes to give us a shot at capitulation, especially as the Wales bench has plenty of points potential late on as well, notably from winger Louis Rees-Zammit.

It’s a big weekend for rugby union, with Scotland v Georgia and Exeter v Wasps in the Premiership final, so buckle up egg-chasers.

It would have definitely been England v Barbarians too, until the latter lived up to their name and 12 players went out on the hit-and-miss (well, it sounds like they went out for dinner actually) on Wednesday, broke Covid restrictions, and got kicked out of the squad.

Replacements, to enable the game to go ahead, are currently being sought if you fancy a game.

Back next week.

Preview posted 0940 BST on 23/10/2020