Ben Linfoot seeks out the best Value Bets from Cheltenham on Festival Trials Day and at Doncaster in their feature, the Sky Bet Chase.
Recommended bets: Value Bet, January 27
1pt win Ballyhill in 1.50 Cheltenham at 7/1
1pt win Arctic Gold in 1.50 Cheltenham at 16/1
1pt win Thumb Stone Blues in 3.15 Doncaster at 12/1
Festival Trials Day at Cheltenham should answer some important questions.
Would Bristol De Mai be a player in a soft ground Gold Cup? Can Finian’s Oscar reinvent himself as a staying hurdler in time for the Stayers’ Hurdle? Is Ballyandy going to run in a handicap at the Festival or will he be aimed at a higher grade?
As a betting card, though, this is trappy. Bristol De Mai would win the BetBright Trial Cotswold Chase easily on his best form and if the treatment for ulcers has worked post-King George we might well see a different horse to the one that fluffed his lines at Kempton.
It's a bit different in the galliardhomes.com Cleeve Hurdle as the market leader in that race, Finian's Oscar, hasn't got the form to justify his market position, but he's got the potential, even if it is heavily factored into his odds.
The JCB Triumph Trial gives Apple's Shakira a chance to get some more Cheltenham experience under her belt and, though this race has produced some big shocks in the past, this really should be a cruise for her and I wouldn't want to be taking her on.
It's the handicaps that offer the best betting opportunities, then, though the Timeform Novices' Handicap Chase has suffered a disappointing turn out of just seven. Quite a few that are running in the following handicap could have run in the novice race, but the prize money pool for the Crest Nicholson Handicap Chase (1.50) is almost £50,000 bigger so it's not really a surprise.
The favourite for the Crest Nicholson, Coo Star Sivola, is an interesting horse.
He's shown some good form in novice chases at the track this season, firstly behind Finian's Oscar and then secondly when splitting 147 and 145-rated rivals Kalondra and Movewiththetimes in December.
I presumed he was a major beneficiary of the new handicapping exemption that says horses finishing close-up to higher-rated rivals in Class 2 or below novices' races cannot be raised in the handicap.
After contacting BHA handicapper Chris Nash it turns out he is a beneficiary, but only by 1lb. If the handicapper could’ve raised him for his last two efforts, he would’ve done, but only to a mark of 136.
I like Coo Star Sivola and think he could improve now switched to handicaps but he is very short at 4/1 and 9/2.
Indeed, I was really taken with BALLYHILL’S improvement at Cheltenham on New Year’s Day and I thought he should probably be favourite for this, so at odds of 7/1 (General) he’s worth a bet to continue his upward curve.
He could well be another one that’s benefitted from the new system, as he didn’t go up a pound for finishing close-up behind Sceau Royal and North Hill Harvey in a couple of novice chases in October.
After that he was sent off 6/4 for a handicap at Aintree, but perhaps that came as too tough a test too soon, as he was a touch disappointing in fifth.
However, he’s really improved since stepping up in trip. A faller back at Aintree in December, he showed that experience hadn’t dented his confidence with an impressive win at Cheltenham on New Year’s Day.
He jumped well, travelled well and battled to see off Shantou Flyer, a horse that was only 3lb higher than when winning the same race the year before. I think that’s a nice piece of form and he could well go in again off just 5lb higher now things have clicked for him.
His trainer, Nigel Twiston-Davies, won this race last year with Foxtail Hill and I also want his other representative in the same contest on Saturday on side, as ARCTIC GOLD simply looks too big at 16s (General).
He's another one that brushed off a fall at Aintree with a good performance at Uttoxeter last time, where he just went down to Town Parks after a crucial mistake two out.
The positive is he finished his race well and he showed no signs of fear following his fall over the National fences, where he was still going well in the lead four out in the Grand Sefton.
He traded at 2/1 in-running on Betfair that day, and he's traded at odds-on in-running on four of his last six starts, something that might well suggest he flatters to deceive.
However, I'm more of the opinion that he's just been a bit unlucky and it would be no surprise, for a horse from this yard, if everything clicked for him now he runs at his local track.
On his best hurdles form he's well-treated and he's racked up enough chasing experience now to put it to good use. With Tom Humphries, who won aboard Arthur's Gift here in December, taking a further 7lb off, he might just love this off his light weight.
Over at Doncaster it's the Sky Bet Chase and L'Ami Serge is a clear favourite at 3/1.
He's 7lb better off than he would be in a handicap hurdle but tackles a fence for the first time on a racecourse since a defeat at Exeter back in 2016.
Davy Russell takes the ride for the first time and he could be a good fit for a horse that is a very tricky ride given his tendency to find nothing off the bridle.
He's handicapped to win this, but he's not a horse to trust at a short price and eight second-place finishes in his last 14 starts tells a good portion of his story. In his two starts this season he's traded at 1.36 and 1.57 in-running on Betfair and found a way to lose.
The percentage call is to take him on and there are several viable alternatives in a competitive renewal.
Tenor Nivernais could go well from the front considering how he's galloped his rivals into submission on the back of breaks before, while Coologue is now 2lb lower than the mark he ran off when second in this race two years ago.
Warriors Tale and Wakanda are two other solid options, but if you like the latter then you might be tempted by the persuasive claims of Kim Bailey's THUMB STONE BLUES at 12/1 (General).
On a line through Delusionofgrandeur it could be that Thumb Stone Blues is well-weighted against Wakanda.
Second to Delusionofgrandeur at Catterick, by just over four lengths in receipt of 2lb, the winner franked that form at Wetherby next time when a neck behind Wakanda in third, getting 2lb himself.
Thumb Stone Blues gets 16lb from Wakanda on Saturday, that's including Ciaran Gethings' 3lb claim, and by my maths that gives him a fine chance of beating the second favourite.
On top of this Kim Bailey has previous in this race, having won it with The Rainbow Hunter in 2014. That horse came into the race on the back of a 63-day break and Thumb Stone Blues has been off 64, a mini absence that has suited him before.
Indeed, last March he arrived at Doncaster off a 68-day break and put in one of his most impressive performances over hurdles, winning a novice event by 25 lengths.
The galloping nature of the track clearly suits and it's with that in mind I think his recent efforts over fences can be improved upon.
Second at Fakenham and Catterick on his last two starts, those courses are on the sharp side and he seemed uncomfortable at both venues despite responding well to pressure.
The galloping nature of Doncaster and the long home straight look sure to suit him better, and it could be that a significant degree of improvement will be forthcoming.
He could do some damage off his low weight and, though the one negative is his inexperience in what looks a red-hot handicap, he's well worth chancing at the available price.
Posted at 1700 GMT on 26/01/18.
Ben Linfoot's Value Bet aim: The Value Bet is designed to generate long-term profit by searching for overpriced horses in the feature weekend races and at the big Festivals in the UK. Running total: +366.89pts to advised stakes/prices (from inception of Value Bet column in January 2010 to current).
