Ben Linfoot seeks out the best Value Bets on day one of the UK turf Flat season at Doncaster, including the Lincoln.
Value Bet Selections
Andrea Atzeni, who has won the last four renewals of the Racing Post Trophy and two of the last three St Legers, is the current king of Doncaster and he could well add a first Lincoln to his Town Moor collection on Saturday.
The Sardinian jockey was all set to ride ante-post favourite Morando until a late setback ruled out Roger Varian’s charge, but Atzeni hopped from the old favourite to the new one and his mount Yuften has a good chance of justifying his market position this weekend.
He stayed on well to land the Balmoral Handicap on his second start for Roger Charlton last October, despite hanging to his left, and he’s rated just 4lb higher following that victory.
Subsequently gelded, he shaped really nicely when a close third in the Lady Wulfruna Stakes at Wolverhampton three weeks ago and that should’ve put him spot on for this assignment.
It’s hard to pick holes in his chance and 9/2 looks a fair price, but I am reluctant to get the heavy artillery out for a Lincoln favourite that has won just twice from 13 starts on turf - none of which were at Doncaster.
With that in mind I’m drawn to the 14/1 about OH THIS IS US who does have Doncaster form having won a seven-furlong handicap off just a 4lb lower mark at the track last November.
He has been campaigned mainly at that distance on his most recent starts, but he has won over a mile before and I don’t think the trip will be a bother to him at this track on what looks to be a drying surface.
You can’t be too confident about ground conditions the day before any turf race in England at this time of year, but with the going described as ‘Good to Soft, Good in places’ on Friday, which has been dry and warm (for Yorkshire in March), the turf should be perfect for him.
Light showers are forecast Saturday, but I’m working on the presumption the ground will be pretty close to being ‘Good’ and if that is the case Oh This Is Us has a fine chance of maintaining his upward curve.
Recent evidence from Meydan suggests he’s running better than ever. He travelled beautifully when just failing to reel in Salateen on February 9, while he got caught in traffic from his inside draw when running on for fifth behind Suyoof last time.
Both of those efforts hinted that a step back up to a mile would be a good idea and he’s the only horse in the field that has been running out in Dubai, something three of the last six Lincoln winners had done (Sweet Lightning, Ocean Tempest and Secret Brief).
With pace spread all over the track stall two isn’t likely to be an inconvenience and Ryan Moore rides him for the first time. He’s a speedy, improving sort and I like him at 14s.
A good portion of the Lincoln field is made up of exposed horses that are sliding down the weights and it’s difficult to pinpoint the sort of improving four-year-old that historically have done so well in the race.
Bravery, who was fourth in the Irish Guineas for Aidan O’Brien, is interesting on his debut for David O’Meara, but he hasn’t been missed by the market considering his recent form and he might need softer ground, too.
Sky Bet are paying SIX places (1/5 odds) on each-way bets in the Lincoln!
If it was a soft-ground Lincoln I’d be very keen on Richard Fahey’s four-year-old, Dolphin Vista, but the ground looks to be a bit too quick for him as well and I’d rather back his stablemate ANOTHER TOUCH for the consolation Spring Mile at 2.25 at the general 14/1.
He’s also been out in Dubai for a few months yet didn’t run after being balloted out of his races, but Fahey reports him to be in great health and if he has improved from three to four he’ll be tough to keep out of the frame.
The son of Arcano was second at Doncaster on his seasonal reappearance last season and he improved steadily throughout the campaign, winning at Newmarket in August before finishing off his season with a good run at York behind Weekend Offender.
Kevin Ryan’s horse got first run on him that day, but Another Touch travelled really well in behind and only went down by a neck after a prolonged tussle up the Knavesmire.
Fahey has hit the ground running this season and he also saddles the favourite in Nimr, but he’s done his improving on the all-weather and he isn’t certain to translate that improvement to turf (was well beaten off 7lb lower on his last turf run at Doncaster).
At over the double the price of Nimr I’d rather side with Another Touch, with the returning Paul Hanagan taking the reins on the horse for the first time.
Frankie Dettori rides Nimr and his presence on BLUE BAYOU in the opening Cammidge Trophy (1.50) is partly why I believe Brian Meehan’s filly is worth taking a chance on at 25/1 (general).
This Listed sprint is wide open and Birchwood is worth taking on given he hasn’t raced over six furlongs since his two-year-old days. Mobsta needs a bit of dig in the ground to be seen to best effect and Absolutely So was well below form in a similar race at this track on his final start last season.
With doubts over those at the top of the market this is ripe for a boil over and if Blue Bayou can bounce back to the sort of levels she reached as a juvenile she has every chance.
Narrowly beaten in the Group Two Duchess of Cambridge Stakes by Illuminate and Besharah on just her second start, Meehan said afterwards that ‘she is as good a two-year-old filly as I’ve trained’ which is some compliment considering the juvenile fillies he’s had on his books.
She then won the Group Three Sweet Solera Stakes following a tardy start, while her fifth behind Minding, Ballydoyle and Alice Springs in the Moyglare after that wasn’t a bad effort either.
Things didn’t go her way as a three-year-old as she was well beaten in the Guineas and then finished near last in the Sandringham on her only other start last year.
Perhaps she didn’t train on, but it’s encouraging connections have persevered with her and that she’s out early as a four-year-old with Dettori booked for the ride.
Some of her family improved at four, with half-brothers Hatta Fort and Caramack both putting in career-best efforts in victory early on in their 4yo careers and they were over six furlongs as well.
Dropping back to this trip looks a good idea considering that and her early form as a two-year-old, and at 25s it’s well worth taking a chance that she can bounce back at this level after a complete no-show in her Classic season.
Finally, I like the look of FERGALL at 16/1 (general, has been backed Friday afternoon - you may get 20/1 in the advert prices Saturday morning) in the Betfred ‘Home of Goals Galore’ Rosebery Handicap at Kempton (3.15).
There’s the possibility of a strong pace in this with Noble Gift, Sennockian Star, Dutch Uncle and other prominent racers in the line-up and that could well play into the hands of hold-up merchant Fergall who stays further and has been in good form over hurdles.
In fact, his last two runs over timber were two of the best of his career, both coming at Ascot behind Sternrubin and Brain Power.
He is relatively lightly-raced for a 10-year-old hurdler and I wouldn’t hold his age against him in this, while a mark of 84 could underestimate his abilities in this sphere somewhat.
The son of Norwich has had just three starts on the Flat, all on the all-weather, and he won his maiden at Lingfield comfortably before running a big race at a big price at Kempton last September.
He was 66/1 that day but was only beaten two lengths in third after being short of room at a crucial point.
Trouble in-running could scupper him again on Saturday, but at 16/1 it’s worth chancing Josephine Gordon can navigate a smooth passage through the field from stall four.
Ben Linfoot's Value Bet aim: The Value Bet is designed to generate long-term profit by searching for overpriced horses in the feature weekend races and at the big Festivals in the UK. Running total: +366.14pts to advised stakes/prices (from inception of Value Bet column in January 2010 to current).
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Posted at 1700 BST on 31/03/17.
