Ben Linfoot seeks out the best Value Bets on day one of Aintree's Grand National meeting.
Value Bet Selections
The Grand National meeting at Aintree starts with a bang with four Grade One contests opening the card on day one and picking your battles is key with plenty of stars on show.
I’m not averse to the idea of taking on Top Notch in the Manifesto, but would do so with either Cloudy Dream or Frodon and both their prices have little juice in them in a tight little contest.
Cue Card looks vulnerable as well in the Betway Bowl, as he looked beaten when falling three out in the Gold Cup unlike last year, but finding one to take him on with isn’t easy.
Perhaps Empire Of Dirt is the one to be on back up in trip to three miles, but he has a lacklustre effort in the Ryanair to overcome and I’m not sure I’d be ploughing in at 11/4 on the back of that run.
That leaves the JP McManus hotpots, and while Defi Du Seuil looks a nice introduction to the Aintree meeting for Barry Geraghty, on just his fourth start back from injury, I’m not so sure Buveur D’Air is the steering job odds of 4/11 suggest he is in the Aintree Hurdle.
Clearly he’s the one to beat after winning the Champion Hurdle, but that victory came in a weak renewal of the race and on his first go at 2m4f he’s worth taking a shot at.
On pedigree he could even improve at the trip being a half-brother to Punchestowns and Tistory, but he’s shown plenty of speed on his journey to the top of the two-mile tree and you don’t really want an unknown element as important as the trip as a question mark when taking such short odds.
It leads me to think there is value elsewhere in the race and at 14/1 (Betfair Sportsbook & Paddy Power, 12s generally) I reckon that value lies with IDENTITY THIEF who is worth backing.
Henry de Bromhead’s horse has had a torrid time over fences, pulling up lame on Boxing Day, unseating at the first in the Irish Arkle and then running poorly when on a recovery mission at Leopardstown last time.
It’s no surprise connections revert to hurdles on the back of that sequence and if he can pick up where he left off over timber he could give Buveur D’Air a real race.
Good enough to beat Top Notch in the Fighting Fifth, Identity Thief struggled when sixth behind Annie Power in last year’s Champion Hurdle but he’s better on a flatter track and he bounced back to form when second to Vroum Vroum Mag at Punchestown.
He had My Tent Or Yours three-and-a-half lengths behind that day and it was just his ninth start over hurdles.
The Kayf Tara gelding still has more to offer over timber and he hasn’t had many chances to prove himself on better ground, something that connections have always thought would bring out the best in him.
He’s interesting over two-and-a-half miles, too, as he won his maiden hurdle over the trip, with strong stayer Snow Falcon beaten in second.
The combination of hurdles, course, trip and ground could be the perfect mix for him as he bids to get back on track following an unsuccessful stint over fences and at 14/1 he’s overpriced to shock the hot favourite.
In the Randox Health Foxhunters’ Open Hunters’ Chase at 4.05 McManus has another strong favourite in On The Fringe who is going for a hat-trick in the race.
He failed to deliver in another hat-trick bid at Cheltenham last time, however, and it could be his battle scars are catching up with him now at the age of 12.
Cheltenham winner Pacha Du Polder is second-favourite and also has solid claims, but he has come up short a couple of times in this contest and failed to keep up with the gallop last year, finishing tailed off.
If you are prepared to take the two market leaders on this is wide open and I’m taken by the 50/1 (bet365 1/4 odds 1,2,3,4) about DARWINS FOX.
Rated 144 in his pomp for Henry de Bromhead, there aren’t many in this field that have been better than him in terms of class and the best run of his career came at Aintree when he was a staying-on second over two miles in the Red Rum Handicap Chase two years ago.
He loves good to soft ground, as it was at Aintree two years ago and as it will be on the National course on Thursday, and this 2m5f trip in the conditions looks ideal.
Tactically he should be suited to the contest as he likes to race prominently and new trainer David Christie did well to get him qualified by running him in hunter chases at Musselburgh and Leicester in March just 11 days before the deadline.
The fences are an unknown, and he probably isn’t as good as he once was, but at 50/1 he’s worth an each-way bet and the general 40s is fine too.
Finally, I like the look of RAVEN’S TOWER at 28/1 (bet365 & Betway, 25s generally) in the Betway Red Rum Handicap Chase at 4.40.
This horse didn’t get to grips with the hustle and bustle of the Grand Annual at last year’s Cheltenham Festival, but Ben Pauling’s charge wouldn’t have got in this year’s renewal and that could be a blessing in disguise.
Kept fresh for this since Sandown in mid-February, Raven’s Tower struggled in the mid-winter ground at Ascot, Wetherby and the Esher track, but he has been dropped 6lb following those runs and he’s really interesting off a mark of 129.
A winner off 128 in an Ascot handicap over hurdles, he broke his duck over fences (in style) in a novice handicap off 127 and on November 5 this season he won here at Aintree in similar ground off a mark of 128.
This race could well have been the plan since then and it could well be this track is perfect for him as it was one of the best efforts of his career. He had some real Aintree specialists in behind too, like Katachenko and Parsnip Pete, two previous winners of this race, which leads me to the conclusion that the form is better than the subsequent exploits of those in behind would have you believe.
Others towards the top of the weights have more solid profiles, but nothing stands out at the prices like Raven’s Tower, who is handicapped to win, will love the ground, has course form, is still only seven and is trained by one of the best young handlers in the game.
Ben Linfoot's Value Bet aim: The Value Bet is designed to generate long-term profit by searching for overpriced horses in the feature weekend races and at the big Festivals in the UK. Running total: +362.14pts to advised stakes/prices (from inception of Value Bet column in January 2010 to current).
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Posted at 1700 BST on 05/04/17.
