Ben Linfoot Value Bet: Tips for Newmarket, York and Ascot on Super Saturday

Recommended Bets: Value Bet

1pt win Robot Boy in 2.10 Ascot at 16/1

1pt win UAE Prince in 3.05 York at 12/1

1pt win Garcia in 3.05 York at 25/1

1pt win Gossiping in 3.25 Newmarket at 9/1

1pt win Ornate in 4.15 York at 20/1  

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The Darley July Cup is always eagerly anticipated but this year’s renewal is extra special thanks to what looks an above-average crop of three-year-old sprinting talent taking on their elders.

Caravaggio and Harry Angel look out of the very top drawer and it was the Ballydoyle-trained horse that was just too strong for his Godolphin rival in the Commonwealth Cup at Royal Ascot last time.

Those two could well fight out the finish again here as it could be really tough for the likes of Limato and The Tin Man to give 6lb to the flashy three-year-olds and it’s very hard to quibble with quotes around 11/10 for Caravaggio.

I’m not sure I want to take him on and there’s really no need to on a Saturday with good handicaps popping up all over the place.

They don’t get much better than the John Smith’s Cup up at York and the race has a handful of slow burners in it that could finally realise their full potential.

Roger Varian’s UAE PRINCE is certainly in that bracket and at 12/1 (General) he’s worth backing to finally deliver on the reputation he’s had since before he set hoof on a racetrack.

Sent off at 4/5 for his debut in a Leicester maiden in April 2016, he could only manage third behind Imperial Aviator and Ulysses but returned to the same track to win his first race later last season before disappointing in handicap company at Doncaster on his final start at three.

However, Varian’s patience began to pay off at Ripon on his first start as a four-year-old on April 20 when he won the Silver Bowl off a mark of 93 and he did it nicely despite his wide draw.

That earned him a crack at a Listed race at Ascot and though he was only fifth of nine after being sent off 9/4 favourite he was far from disgraced against a bunch of rivals rated significantly higher than him and the winner, Desert Encounter, was an excellent third in the Eclipse just last week.

Gelded since and given time off the track, he’s gone really well fresh a couple of times in his lightly-raced career and he just has the profile of a horse that could end up being rated much higher than his current mark of 97.

Varian and Andrea Atzeni teamed up to win this race with Farraaj in 2014 and Atzeni is going for his third win in five years in the contest having won it the year before with Danchai as well.

UAE Prince is the main pick but I also can’t resist having a go on Richard Fahey’s GARCIA at 25/1 (Sky Bet, Bet Victor).

This horse has previous in a decent handicap having won the Silver Bowl at Haydock last campaign off a mark of 89 and he’s only 6lb higher here after a stop-start time of things since.

He finished midfield in last year’s Britannia Stakes before ending his campaign with a good fourth in a mile handicap at Ayr in September off Saturday’s mark, staying on nicely in the closing stages.

That performance suggested he needed further than a mile and his pedigree suggests he does too. His dam won the Lingfield Oaks Trial and his half brother Salvation was a mile and a half horse as well.

The step up in trip looks sure to suit and it’s his absence and inexperience that looks factored into his price at 25s. However, he’s a horse that goes really well fresh and we all know Fahey, who has won this race three times, can get one ready after an absence.

Fahey has a fantastic record in the bet365 Bunbury Cup as well but he has to rely on Withernsea at Newmarket this year and he might struggle on faster ground now he’s edged back up the weights again.

The one I want to be with is Gary Moore’s GOSSIPING at 9/1 (General) as he’s absolutely thriving and it’s anyone’s guess how far he can progress now he’s on a real roll.

A winner of five of his last seven starts, Gossiping has improved 20lb since being gelded and moving to Moore’s and the best effort of his career came at Goodwood last time.

He won pretty easily off a mark of 88 that day and an 8lb rise may well not be enough to halt his winning run, especially as he loves these big-field handicaps over seven furlongs.

The son of Dubawi goes really well fresh after a mini break, too, so his absence of 51 days looks perfect judging by his efforts following similar absences recently.

Connections look to have found the key to him and central to that is Shane Kelly holding him up and getting him settled. He’s done that really well during Gossiping’s winning streak and if he times things as nicely at Newmarket as he has done at Goodwood in recent starts there’s no reason why Gossiping can’t go in again.

Back at York it’s the John Smith’s City Walls Stakes (4.15) and Robert Cowell’s ORNATE is overpriced at 20/1 (General) to cause an upset.

The four-year-old has won just once from 16 starts and has run poorly the last twice, but he has genuine excuses for those efforts and he was pretty consistent prior to that, while I’ve always felt he’s needed a speedy five furlongs to be at his best.

Soft ground at Haydock and a first start on Tapeta at Newcastle were the valid excuses for his last two runs and before that he’d run well in Group Three contests won by Brando and Marsha.

He’s only had the four runs for Cowell who is a master at training sprinters and it’s interesting he reapplies the hood for the first time under his care here as he ran consistently well in it on his last four starts for William Haggas.

The son of Bahamian Bounty doesn’t have much to find with the best of these on his very best form and that man Atzeni takes over in the saddle. 

Finally, it’s the totescoop6 Heritage Handicap over five furlongs up at Ascot as well and perhaps it can be third-time lucky for ROBOT BOY at 16/1 (General).

David Barron’s horse was a close fourth in this race off a mark of 106 two years ago and lost out by a head to Royal Birth last year off 95 – the mark he runs off on Saturday.

As he showed in this race last year he’s highly competitive off a mark of 95 and he won off that number at Wolverhampton in February as well.

Rated 101 on the all weather, he was far from disgraced off 99 on his last run on turf up at Musselburgh last month and a 4lb drop to a mark we know he’s dangerous off is a key factor.

With the stalls positioned stands’ side he’s going to be racing in the middle of the track on the far side, but he doesn’t have to lead and he might be able to get a nice tow into things off Yalta and El Astronaute.

He’s been in good form all year, and now he returns to a track he runs well at off a mark he can win off he’s of interest at big prices in an admittedly competitive race.

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Ben Linfoot's Value Bet aim: The Value Bet is designed to generate long-term profit by searching for overpriced horses in the feature weekend races and at the big Festivals in the UK. Running total: +371.99pts to advised stakes/prices (from inception of Value Bet column in January 2010 to current). 

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Posted at 1700 BST on 14/07/17.