Value Bet tipster Ben Linfoot has four big-priced selections for Saturday's feature action at Newmarket and Ascot, including the Sun Chariot.
French trainers have dominated the Kingdom Of Bahrain Sun Chariot Stakes in recent years and the Group One prize could be crossing the English Channel once again thanks to a strong challenge headed by Qemah on Saturday.
She’s one of the star fillies in the field having won two Group Ones, the same number as Roly Poly who won her second race at the top level in the Prix Rothschild at Deauville at the end of July.
That’s a key piece of form with six fillies from the race in opposition again this weekend and the best bet at the prices looks to be SIYOUSHAKE at 12/1 (General) for Freddy Head.
Fourth in the Sun Chariot last year, things didn’t go too smoothly in that race for her as the ground was probably a bit too quick and she was positioned at the rear and on the wide outside when the pace quickened.
Still, she stayed on nicely for fourth and she’s a better filly this year, as her efforts in the Rothschild and the Prix Jean Romanet show.
Her close up Rothschild third, though, is the piece of evidence that suggests she’s been underestimated in the Sun Chariot market.
The daughter of Siyouni travelled well in a prominent position in that contest, looking the likely winner entering the final furlong before just being edged out of things by Roly Poly and Via Ravenna, with Qemah, Persuasive and Usherette beaten in behind.
She only has to find a quarter of a length with Roly Poly on that form and she gets a 5lb pull at the weights, so, at over double the odds of the Ballydoyle filly, she does look to represent a bit of value at 12s.
Jamie Spencer has an interesting mount in Tomyris, as she remains unexposed after just six career starts and on her last two runs she’s shaped as though a step back up in trip to a mile would help her.
She’s not a bad 66/1 chance at all but she does have enough to find with most of the field, as you’d expect for a filly at those odds, but Spencer does have serious claims on a big-priced filly in the preceding contest as well.
The horse in question is CLEAR WATER in the British EBF Breeders’ Fillies Sprint Series Handicap (2.05) and at 18/1 (Sky Bet, Bet Victor, you might get 25s at Boylesports) she’s well worth having on side.
A daughter of Hard Spun, this four-year-old filly bolted up on the Rowley Mile in maiden company when with Godolphin in the May of last year, winning by over four lengths in good style.
That was the one and only win of her career thus far, but she’s been pretty lightly-raced since and arrived at Michael Wigham’s in June with just five runs under her belt.
It took her new trainer a few starts to get to grips with her, but she ran a really good race off a mark of 84 when second to Sainted at Haydock in August and she backed that up, via a below-par effort at York, with an eye-catching run at Salisbury last time.
She eventually finished fourth off a mark of 87, beaten just over four lengths, but she wasn’t ideally positioned on the rail throughout and finished just on the heels of Kassia and Rely On Me after staying on well in the closing stages.
Clear Water doesn’t have a lot to find with Kassia and Rely On Me at all on that form, yet she gets a 2lb pull at the weights with both and is twice the price of the pair as well.
Spencer gets the leg up for the first time and with the Wigham stable in really good form she’s taken to land the spoils at the scene of her most impressive previous performance.
Finally, it’s the totescoop6 Challenge Cup at Ascot and William Haggas’ Mojito heads the market here as he seeks a four-timer after an impressive run of form.
I’m not mad keen to take him on by any means as he looks highly progressive, but this is his biggest test to date and he is up 9lb as well.
Meanwhile, if the Makzeem that turned up at Newmarket last Saturday is in the same kind of form he’s a big price at 8/1, but it is on my mind that this is a quick return to the track and that he didn’t really back up here in the summer after a good second on the July Course two weeks previously.
With that in mind I’m inclined to take the duo on and I’m going to roll the dice and back the fly in the ointment, LORD GLITTERS, who just looks too big at 20/1 (Betfair Sportsbook, Paddy Power) despite his unknown quantity status.
Yes, we are guessing with his handicap mark of 102, but he has a very similar profile to the same connections’ Mondialiste and I’m keen to get him onside now while he is flying under the radar.
Like Mondialiste, he was very consistent in France and won a £12,000 race on his final start in the country before being exchanged for a tidy sum. Mondialiste was bought for €190,000 by Geoff & Sandra Turnbull and they’ve forked out €270,000 for this son of Whipper.
Judging by the Prix Lavandin at Saint-Cloud in May they’ve got another smart tool on their hands as he tanked through the race, barged his way through a gap without flinching and quickened clear of two rivals that have since won similar £12,000 and £14,000 races back at the same track.
On that evidence, he won’t mind the drop back to seven furlongs and he’s also going to love the cut in the ground. With plenty of pace drawn around him on the stands’ side and improvement expected on his first start for David O’Meara, he could well be the one to take down the big two.
However, he is admittedly a risky proposition on his own, so I’m going in with a double-pronged attack of ex-French horses by backing STRAIGHT RIGHT at 12/1 (General) as well.
Formerly with Christophe Ferland, this horse was the subject of a big money transfer in June, to the tune of £450,000, and he was very well backed on his stable debut for Andrew Balding at Newbury in July.
He disappointed that day, but Balding improved him significantly within in a month as he ran third to Johnny Barnes at Goodwood in August, staying on powerfully in the closing stages to steal third off Mukalal, a horse that won at Ascot on Friday afternoon.
That’s not the only form boost from the race as the second, Burnt Sugar, has won since, so has the fifth, Masham Star and the 10th, Shady McCoy, won at Ascot on Friday as well, while several others from the contest have run well in defeat.
All in all, it was a fine effort from Straight Right on just his second start for the yard and he should be really competitive in this off the same mark of 103.
Significantly better off at the weights with Johnny Barnes and Burnt Sugar, the selection is expected to reverse the Goodwood form with those two and potentially deliver Balding a second win in this race in recent years following Intransigent’s 2014 success.
Recommended Bets: Value Bet, Saturday October 7
1pt e.w Clear Water in 2.05 Newmarket at 18/1
1pt win Siyoushake in 2.40 Newmarket at 12/1
1pt win Straight Right in 3.35 Ascot at 12/1
1pt win Lord Glitters in 3.35 Ascot at 20/1
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Ben Linfoot's Value Bet aim: The Value Bet is designed to generate long-term profit by searching for overpriced horses in the feature weekend races and at the big Festivals in the UK. Running total: +351.39pts to advised stakes/prices (from inception of Value Bet column in January 2010 to current).
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Posted at 1700 BST on 06/10/17
