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Check out Ben Linfoot's Value Bets for the Grand National

Free betting tips: Ben Linfoot Value Bet selections for Grand National day at Aintree

Horse Racing

Sat April 14, 2018 · 7y ago

Our flagship racing tipster Ben Linfoot seeks out the best Value Bets on Grand National day including two in the big race and two on the under card.

Recommended Bets: Value Bet Grand National Day

1pt e.w Regal Encore in 5.15 Aintree at 33/1 (NON-RUNNER)

1pt e.w Maggio in 5.15 Aintree at 100/1

1pt win Debece in 1.45 Aintree at 11/1

1pt win Scheu Time in 6.20 Aintree at 10/1

For details of advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record

Regal Encore was declared a non-runner on Saturday morning due to abnormal blood analysis

Richie McLernon got within a nose of winning the Randox Health Grand National when he was denied aboard Sunnyhillboy by Neptune Collonges back in 2012, but he can finally go one better when getting the leg up on REGAL ENCORE at 33/1 (1/4 1,2,3,4,5 bet365, 888Sport) at Aintree on Saturday.

The 10-year-old, trained by Anthony Honeyball, has had a lovely Grand National prep, starting a year ago when he hunted round for eighth in the big race, never looking like getting involved but gaining essential experience of the famous fences.

Now he’s been around before I’d expect him to be ridden more prominently and, despite his form reaching a new level this season, he’s allowed to race off the same mark of 150 as last year.

Left on that number after a superb third place in the Ladbrokes Trophy (gets a 9lb pull for a nine-length defeat by Total Recall, one of the favourites for this), Regal Encore was pulled up at Ascot just before Christmas but bounced back to winning form at the same track just after the National weights were published.

That win over old rival Minella Daddy showed that he’d improved in the past year, that he’s in the form of his life and that he has no issues with testing ground. It also means he’s 4lb well-in for the National and he looks to have the right mixture of talent and being on the right side of the handicapper.

Second in the Champion Bumper in the first part of his career, he had a profile of a horse that might be considered a disappointment considering his early promise, but he looks to finally be in a place where he can land the biggest of pots.

Conditions are going to be really testing and handling them will be crucial. It turned Heavy, Soft in places on the National course on Friday and we could have a race on our hands like in 2016 when Rule The World strung them out in soft ground.

Of the eight horses that carried over 11 stone that day only two finished and one of those was previous winner Many Clouds, Oliver Sherwood’s charge finishing last of the 16 that made it home.

It could be very hard work for those carrying big weights again and my shortlist consisted of horses in the bottom half of the handicap.

I really liked Captain Redbeard a few weeks ago and I still do, but he’s been backed into the right price and beyond recently while Virgilio, a horse that was going to be my number one pick a week ago, has to prove himself on testing conditions.

He’s got some superb form on good ground on the Mildmay course, has had a wind operation and looks well-handicapped, but I am worried about him after more rain.

I Just Know looks a likely type for Sue Smith and he should be perfectly at home on the ground, but lack of experience over the fences does put me off him which left only a couple on the shortlist.

Raz De Maree was one of those and if he jumps better than he ever has before he could well go close, but, at 100/1 (General 1/4 1,2,3,4,5) I can’t resist an each-way bet on MAGGIO.

He’s 13-years-old and 5lb wrong at the weights, but there is plenty in this horse’s profile to suggest he’s got a big run in him at huge odds.

Firstly, he loves testing ground. He’s run well in Haydock heavy and won on the Mildmay course at Aintree on soft at this meeting two years ago. That was a shock 50/1 success, but he won it by 12 lengths off a mark of 140 and he’s only 5lb higher on Saturday.

It might well have been two years ago and he might well be 13, but he’s been pretty lightly-raced since then with all roads leading to this day. An injury ruled him out of the race last year but since returning this season he’s been gradually brought along, running over hurdles twice before the weights were published before qualifying with a run over fences at Down Royal last month.

They weren’t particularly inspiring runs, but they didn’t really matter. It was all about getting him primed for this day.

He shaped like a real stayer when hosing up at Aintree two years ago and that’s not his only good piece of form on the Mildmay course. He was third off 145 in a handicap chase before that and he also got round in the 2015 Topham, finishing 10th of 30 after always being in the rear following a mistake at the first.

If you like a story in the National, he comes with one. His jockey, Brendan Powell, is aiming to win the race exactly 30 years after his father prevailed on Rhyme ‘n’ Reason, while his owners, Douglas Pryde and James Beaumont, are going for their second big shock in the race having won the 2013 renewal with Auroras Encore.

From the small yard of Patrick Griffin, this would be another big upset. But conditions are in his favour and at the prices he’s worth a small bet.

Grand National Verdict

REGAL ENCORE
Maggio
Captain Redbeard
Virgilio
Raz De Maree
I Just Know

Elsewhere on the card DEBECE looks a good bet at 11/1 (Ladbrokes, Coral) in the opening Gaskells Handicap Hurdle (1.45).

His trainer Tim Vaughan has a good record at Aintree, with 10 career winners at 12 per cent, and Debece wasn’t far off adding to that number in two runs here last season when third on both occasions.

The second of those was the last time he was seen, but it was in the Grade One Doom Bar Sefton Novices’ Hurdle when he was beaten half-a-length by winner The Worlds End.

That run suggests he’s well-handicapped off 141 and both times he’s encountered soft ground he’s won by 19 lengths. On top of that he’s won twice after breaks before, so the absence is not a concern, and he looks a good bet in the card’s opener.

Finally, James Nash’s SCHEU TIME (10/1 General) looks the one to be on in the closing Pinsent Masons Handicap Hurdle at 6.20.

Nash has a good record at Aintree and although things didn’t go so well for his Massini’s Trap at the meeting on Friday the ground looks very much in the favour of Scheu Time after his win on heavy at Thurles last time out.

That was his third run over hurdles and it was by far his best, while his Catterick second reads well after the winner Sam’s Gunner went on to win the EBF Final by seven lengths off 125.

It suggests Scheu Time could be well-treated off 124 and, at 10/1, with Katie Walsh aboard, he looks a decent wager in the finale on handicap debut.

Posted at 1700 BST on 13/04/18.

Ben Linfoot's Value Bet aim: The Value Bet is designed to generate long-term profit by searching for overpriced horses in the feature weekend races and at the big Festivals in the UK. Running total: +388.14pts to advised stakes/prices (from inception of Value Bet column in January 2010 to current).

Click here for the full Value Bet record