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Cheltenham Festival tips day one | Ben Linfoot Value Bet: Prince to go Close
Our flagship racing tipster Ben Linfoot seeks out the best Value Bets on day one of the 2018 Cheltenham Festival and he's backing five horses at big prices.
Recommended Bets: Value Bet Cheltenham Festival day one
0.5pts e.w Debuchet in 1.30 Cheltenham at 40/1
1pt win Ramses De Teillee in 2.50 Cheltenham at 12/1
1pt win Cogry in 2.50 Cheltenham at 16/1
1pt win Tycoon Prince in 5.30 Cheltenham at 20/1
1pt win Ibis Du Rheu in 5.30 Cheltenham at 28/1
For details of advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record
It’s the Cheltenham Festival, but not as we know it, not for a long time anyway. The ground is heavy, soft in places and it’s at least 20 years since it started this testing.
With the ground in mind it’s natural to think there will be plenty of unfathomable results, but, while there are likely to be a fair few shocks, I’m not seeing too many negatives for the big guns on Tuesday afternoon.
If anything Buveur d’Air’s chance is enhanced on testing ground in the Unibet Champion Hurdle. He loves getting his toe in and while chief rival Faugheen also relishes this sort of ground, he does have plenty to prove now after two below-par runs.
His latest second in the Irish Champion Hurdle was a step in the right direction, but that was only 38 days ago and it would be some feat from both horse and trainer if the 10-year-old was up to the challenge, even in first-time cheekpieces.
Footpad and Apple’s Jade also look the class acts in their races and will have no problems with the conditions, either, so the big day one four-timer has every chance of going in if Getabird lands the opening Sky Bet Supreme Novices’ Hurdle.
However, he looks by far the most vulnerable of the quartet of short-priced favourites on day one and he’s worth taking on.
If Ruby Walsh somehow managed to negotiate a soft lead then Getabird will be hard to peg back, but that looks unlikely in this big field with the likes of Us And Them, First Flow, Lostintranslation and maybe Paloma Blue, if he pulls his way to the front like last time, in opposition.
Tactically he may have to adjust and I don’t think he has anywhere near as much in hand as odds of around 7/4 suggest. I’m happy to take him on and though Kalashnikov, Summerville Boy and First Flow are respected, there is one at a huge price that’s worth a small each-way punt and that horse is Mags Mullins’ DEBUCHET at 40/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3).
Second in the Weatherbys Champion Bumper last year, this horse was 14/1 for the Supreme at the start of the season but has drifted to big odds after failing to light up the novice hurdling scene in a couple of runs this campaign.
However, he improved plenty from his first to second start and ran perfectly well when sixth in the Deloitte last time behind Samcro, especially given his jumping was average. He certainly didn’t gain ground on the field at his hurdles but if he can jump better with that run under his belt he’s no forlorn hope.
Despite not impressing at his hurdles he still managed to finish ahead of Sharjah, a horse that is 20/1 for the Supreme, and just four lengths behind Paloma Blue, a 12/1 chance in the Festival’s opening race.
We know from last year’s bumper he enjoys a big field at Cheltenham and he raced widest of all that day, looking like an extremely impressive winner before Fayonagh flew from the back to deny him up the hill.
Both Back In Front and Cinders And Ashes were beaten in the Champion Bumper before returning the following year and winning the Supreme, though, and despite his slow progress over timber he could well spring a shock at fancy odds in a race that looks more open than the market suggests.
The Ultima Handicap Chase at 2.50 is going to be a real test of stamina in the conditions and true stayers that go well in heavy ground look a better option than the flashier types.
I’m not sure Gold Present wants it this soft and I’d be wary of backing him off a big weight despite his talent and good form, while Coo Star Sivola looks short enough to me after going up half a stone for winning a bad race at Exeter just 18 days ago.
With David Pipe having won this race three times in the last decade and an average of one Festival handicap for every year that he’s had a licence, his team of handicappers are always worthy of respect and RAMSES DE TEILLEE (12/1 General) looks one of his best chances of the week.
The key factor with him is the ground, as he loves it heavy having won on such a surface twice this season, both times around the undulations of Chepstow.
That bodes well for his Cheltenham debut and his form has a really strong look to it, too. At Fontwell in December he was beaten by Get On The Yager, but he gave him 9lb that day and Dan Skelton’s horse went on to win the Rowland Meyrick at Wetherby.
Then he easily beat subsequent Kelso winner Rons Dream, a 137-rated mare, giving her 13lb, before finishing second to RSA Chase hopeful Elegant Escape at Exeter last time.
He travelled really nicely that day before being outstayed by a classy horse, but he shaped as though the nature of a big-field handicap would suit and the handicapper has given him a real chance by dropping him 3lb to a mark of 145.
Only six, he’s improved in a short space of time this season but stays well, jumps well and looks to have an excellent chance off his current mark considering the strength of his form in similar conditions over the last few months.
I also want Nigel Twiston-Davies’ COGRY on side at 16/1 (General).
He’s the sort of exposed horse you wouldn’t normally look for in a handicap of this nature, but this race is a different beast on heavy ground and his experience and staying power could well see him come to the fore.
Second in the Scottish National last April, his ability to stay four miles will be a positive on Tuesday and he’s not short of pace over this trip at Cheltenham as he won over the course and distance back in October from Singlefarmpayment.
That was off a 5lb lower mark, but he’s run well off his current rating of 138 since as he was second off that number to Milansbar in the Classic Chase at Warwick in January.
He was sharpened up at the same track over 2m4f last time when he stayed on for third behind Casse Tete, but that should’ve put him spot on for this. Crucially, we’ve seen him try his heart out up the Cheltenham hill in testing ground before, as he won on soft ground over hurdles on New Year’s Day, 2017.
This could come down to grit and determination and off his low weight, local hero Cogry should be backed to register his third course success, but first at the Festival.
Finally, the Close Brothers Novices’ Handicap Chase closes the card on day one and Gordon Elliott’s second string TYCOON PRINCE looks the best bet at 20/1 (General).
He was a good bumper horse that lost his way over hurdles but he’s rediscovered his form since going chasing and looked a novice of some potential when he thrashed Bunk Off Early at Leopardstown over Christmas.
Stepped up in class to the Grade One Frank Ward Solicitors Arkle Novice Chase last month, he was no match for the mighty Footpad but was upsides Any Second Now when bowing out with a fall at the last.
It wouldn’t have been a surprise to see him beat that horse had he stayed on his feet yet Ted Walsh’s charge is favourite for this race with Tycoon Prince 10 points bigger.
That’s too big a discrepancy, especially with the step up in trip expected to suit Tycoon Prince. He had form over 2m4f over hurdles and is related to stayers including Puffin Billy.
It could unlock further improvement from him over the larger obstacles and, as long as he’s not lost any confidence after his tumble, he looks a big player under Jack Kennedy.
The other one I like at the prices is Paul Nicholls’ IBIS DU RHEU at 28/1 (General).
He’s a lightly-raced second season novice with only five chase starts under his belt, but he was placed in good handicaps at Chepstow and Cheltenham last season off a mark of 146.
Rated 147 at his best over hurdles after winning the Martin Pipe at the 2016 Cheltenham Festival, he looks nicely handicapped here off 141, the assessor dropping him 3lb following his seasonal reappearance at Newbury last time.
That was admittedly uninspiring, but there’s a chance he just badly needed the run and at least he came down a bit in the weights for this assignment.
Just 2lb higher than when he won the Martin Pipe, we know he can deal with the hustle and bustle of the Festival and testing ground holds no fear for him either.
If things drop his way, he has the talent to take advantage.
Posted at 1700 GMT on 12/03/18.
Ben Linfoot's Value Bet aim: The Value Bet is designed to generate long-term profit by searching for overpriced horses in the feature weekend races and at the big Festivals in the UK. Running total: +361.89pts to advised stakes/prices (from inception of Value Bet column in January 2010 to current).
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