Ben Linfoot Value Bet: Glorious Goodwood day three tips

Recommended Bets: Value Bet Glorious Goodwood Day Three

1pt win Hold Sway in 1.50 Goodwood at 10/1 - has some really strong form to his name and could relish these conditions with Silvestre de Sousa on board from inside draw

1pt win Rumpole in 1.50 Goodwood at 28/1 - looks the type to improve for stepping up in trip and nothing wrong with his maiden form either. Ground could be an issue but huge price

1pt win Dubka in 2.25 Goodwood at 9/1 - relishes soft ground and big improver on the surface. Stays well and worth forgiving last run now she returns to ideal conditions

1pt win Megan Lily in 5.20 Goodwood at 12/1 - another filly that should enjoy running on this surface and has ideal draw, too, could get on a real roll on stands' rail

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The rain came down in significant fashion at Goodwood on Wednesday and though there’s now a dry forecast through to Saturday, Thursday’s runners, at least, will have to have the tools to handle really testing ground.

Connections of Churchill, who won a Classic on yielding, thought the ground too soft for the son of Galileo in Wednesday’s Sussex Stakes, but, bafflingly, not stablemate Lancaster Bomber, a son of War Front who needs it rattling fast.

Gleneagles was hardly seen when his career nosedived, so it is with hope we don’t see a similar scenario with Churchill, a horse that looked so promising when winning two Classics in the spring.

Hopefully we don’t have any problems with Winter running in the Qatar Nassau Stakes, as she’s also a dual-Classic winner and her presence in Thursday’s feature makes it an excellent renewal.

This is her first go at the trip, though, so whether connections will be happy to let her take her chance remains to be seen. If she does run, she could be worth taking on in what will be the stiffest test of stamina she’s faced by far.

The one that punters have unsurprisingly come for is Sobetsu, Charlie Appleby’s Group One Prix Saint-Alary winner at Deauville in May (see YouTube video below). She handled softer ground well that day and drops back to 10 furlongs following a below-par run in the Oaks.

She’s interesting, but the 16/1 quotes available on Wednesday afternoon have long gone and she’s generally 8/1 now. I wouldn’t put you off any double-figure prices about her, but the market is a bit messy at the moment and with the potential for a big Rule 4 I’ll concentrate on the undercard.

Godolphin could get the day off to a flyer in the opening Matchbook Betting Exchange Handicap as HOLD SWAY holds really solid claims at 10/1 (Ladbrokes, Coral).

Appleby’s horse has some very good form to his name and looks to have plenty more to offer from a lenient mark of 87.

In his maiden win at Newmarket in May he beat John Gosden’s Zenon by a length, a horse that has won twice since and is now rated 94. The third, Mutarabby, who reopposes in this race, was three lengths in arrears and he also runs off 94 now after winning at Chelmsford.

On top of this Hold Sway’s subsequent form from Sandown, where he was third, was boosted by the second On To Victory after he was runner-up to Londinium at Goodwood on Wednesday.

That’s a really solid block of form in the context of this handicap and things should be run to suit, too. He’s a prominent racer that handles cut in the ground and he’s drawn to attack in stall five.

Gelded since he was last seen, there’s plenty of reasons to expect significant improvement from this horse and it’s always a positive to see Silvestre de Sousa booked on your selection.

He’s the main pick in the race but I also can’t resist a small dabble on Hughie Morrison’s RUMPOLE at 28/1 (General).

This horse’s maiden win has also worked out really well as the horse he beat by two lengths, Daira Prince, has won twice subsequently and is now rated 86.

Rumpole could be well-handicapped off a mark of 80, then, and he hinted as much last time when he was beaten a head off that rating at Windsor.

That was over a mile, and he shaped like he wanted the step up in trip that day, as he battled on really strongly once headed in the closing stages.

He’s a half-brother to 10-furlong winner King Of Dreams, out of a Hurricane Run mare, and though he was beaten on soft ground at Doncaster I wouldn’t be quick to rule him out of things on account of the ground. Not at 28/1, anyway.

DUBKA has been well backed for the Lillie Langtry (2.25) and though the double-figure prices have gone about her I still want her on side at 9/1 (Ladbrokes, 8/1 generally).

This filly is from a good family as her dam, Rosika, was a Listed winner and she’s a half-sister to Rambling Rose, another Listed winner who was the dam of Notnowcato.

Notnowcato handled cut in the ground well and Dubka has also shown a preference for soft conditions in her lightly-raced career so far.

In two runs on soft she won on her handicap debut by nearly five lengths and was then second to Bateel in the Pinnacle Stakes at Haydock in June.

That was a career-best effort and she’s worth forgiving her latest run at the same track, as that came on much faster ground.

She shapes like a real stayer and will love the conditions. Ryan Moore takes the ride, too, and I don’t think he would’ve had any problems riding the Aidan O’Brien-trained filly Wild Irish Rose off 8st-9lb, so maybe that’s a hint in itself.

Finally, Richard Fahey’s MEGAN LILY can bounce back in the closing Tatler Handicap at 12/1 (General).

She has a really good record in soft ground as she finished second at York in May in such conditions before winning at a wet Chester on her next start off a mark of 87.

The daughter of Dragon Pulse is just 2lb higher on Thursday, with Adam McNamara taking 3lb off again, and she’s drawn close to the stands’ rail, which looked the place to be on Wednesday, to boot.

She wasn’t actually beaten that far at Chester last time from a wide draw, so the hope is she remains in good form and that the ideal conditions can help her get back in the winning groove.

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Ben Linfoot's Value Bet aim: The Value Bet is designed to generate long-term profit by searching for overpriced horses in the feature weekend races and at the big Festivals in the UK. Running total: +397.39pts to advised stakes/prices (from inception of Value Bet column in January 2010 to current).

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Posted at 1700 BST on 02/08/17.

Updated at 1716 BST with Megan Lily bet