Free horse racing betting tips: Ben Linfoot Value Bet preview for Newmarket Saturday October 14

The Betfred Cesarewitch has produced some real turn ups in recent years, with 66/1, 66/1, 50/1, 50/1 and 25/1 winners returned since 2008.

With 34 horses charging over 2m2f through two counties and around one bend perhaps it’s not that surprising and it does help explain the fact they bet 8/1 the field, despite the favourite John Constable having outstanding claims.

Formerly trained by Aidan O’Brien, he’s thrived over hurdles on recent starts for Evan Williams and if he translates that improvement to this Flat assignment he’s going to be tough to beat.

We’ve seen many horses that look thrown-in disappoint in this race over the years, though, and with some really enticing each-way offers about (Sky Bet and William Hill are paying EIGHT places on each-way bets at 1/5 the odds) I’m drawn to one at a massive price.

That horse is POYLE THOMAS (66/1 Sky Bet and Hills 1/5 the odds eight places) and he’s well worth a small each-way wager at huge odds.

He’s clearly not the easiest to train, as 15 starts for an eight-year-old shows, but he’s got plenty of ability and is worth forgiving his two runs for his new yard this season.

The first thing to say is that he’s well handicapped, even though he’s 4lb wrong at the weights. When he was with Ralph Beckett he won off 83 and was beaten a short head twice off 90, the same rating he was third off in the Northumberland Plate consolation race, while he was fourth at Goodwood over 2m4f off 92.

Racing off 88 on Saturday, he’s handicapped to have a big say on his best form and George Wood, going for the 'Autumn Double', takes a useful 3lb off as well (Wood rode a 14/1 winner for Poyle Thomas’s new trainer, Michael Madgwick, at Salisbury last week and that was his third victory for the stable this season).

He also has really good form on the Rowley Mile. He wasn’t a bad 11th, by any means, in this very race four years ago, but his best effort came when he ran Desert Encounter to a short head at the track in the May of last year.

That was on fast ground and Saturday’s conditions, ‘Good’ with no rain forecast, are absolutely key to the bet.

In two runs for Madgwick he’s been beaten on soft ground, but he’s much better on a sounder surface and you can put a line through his last run at Ascot as he lost all chance at the start and was eased down late on when winning was not an option.

Before that, he actually didn’t shape too badly at Newbury and it’s that run that gives encouragement with Saturday in mind.

Back on better ground, off a competitive mark, from a perfectly fair draw in 13 and with a good claimer on board, Poyle Thomas can run a big race at odds as big as 80s, although taking the eight places at 66/1 looks the way to go.

Click here to place your Cesarewitch bets with Sky Bet (paying EIGHT places 1/5 the odds)!

It’s a good card at York as well and though this fixture can often be wet they’re racing on ‘Good’ ground on the Knavesmire and no rain is forecast either.

That���s excellent news for EASTERN IMPACT and at 25/1 (General) it’s worth chancing the conditions can see him bounce back to winning form as he’s become really well handicapped.

Rated 113 at his very best, Eastern Impact is now off 97, his lowest mark for three years and, earlier in the season, he was running well enough to exploit such a rating.

A close third off 102 at Wolverhampton, a second off the same mark at Newmarket and his two-and-a-half-length seventh off 104 in the Wokingham could well all have been good enough runs to win off 97, but he has been well below par on his last three runs.

Cut in the ground doesn’t suit him at all, though, while he had no chance when on the wrong side of the track at Doncaster last time, so it’s worth forgiving him those efforts now he’s racing off a really competitive rating on ideal ground.

Finally, SYPHAX looks worth chancing at 11/1 (General) in the Download The Coral App Handicap at 2.05.

He’s far from straightforward but has been crying out for some headgear and Kevin Ryan reaches for the first-time cheekpieces for this return to 10 furlongs.

I don’t think he shaped too badly over a mile last time and going half a stride slower over this trip looks likely to help him, even if he was outclassed when he last tried it in the Dante.

Running in this off 98 is a much more suitable assignment, however, and he was rated 110 at the start of the season following his win in the Acomb at this track as a juvenile.

He looks fairly treated now and his trainer has a superb record when applying the first-time headgear (Timeform stats reveal he has a +£55.55 profit with horses in first-time headgear over the last five years).

Recommended Bets: Value Bet

1pt win Syphax in 2.05 York at 11/1

1pt win Eastern Impact in 3.15 York at 25/1

1pt e.w Poyle Thomas in 3.40 Newmarket at 66/1

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Ben Linfoot's Value Bet aim: The Value Bet is designed to generate long-term profit by searching for overpriced horses in the feature weekend races and at the big Festivals in the UK. Running total: +342.39pts to advised stakes/prices (from inception of Value Bet column in January 2010 to current).

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Posted at 1700 BST on 13/10/17