Ben Linfoot seeks out the best Value Bets at Newmarket and Goodwood on 2000 Guineas day, with a trio of horses fancied in the handicaps.
Recommended Bets: Value Bet 2000 Guineas day
1pt win Cote D'Azur in 1.50 Newmarket at 20/1
1pt win Masham Star in 2.40 Goodwood at 12/1
1pt win Pastoral Player in 2.40 Goodwood at 33/1
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There is no standout candidate in the QIPCO 2000 Guineas at Newmarket on Saturday with four colts potentially set to dispute favouritism with Gustav Klimt, Saxon Warrior, Elarqam and Masar the quartet that could do battle in the market and on the track.
Gustav Klimt is the Friday night favourite, but it’s difficult to argue he deserves that mantle on the bare form and he could well be usurped in the betting by one of the others from the fancied four in the build-up to the season’s first Classic.
Saxon Warrior ran like he’d appreciate middle distances as a three-year-old when he won the Racing Post Trophy and he could be vulnerable to a genuine miler, while you could say the same about Masar, to a slightly lesser extent, despite his wide-margin win in the Craven last time.
Both are bred for further and could well step up in trip after this, but for Gustav Klimt and Elarqam a mile in May looks absolutely ideal and it’s the latter that appeals more to me following his two wins last year as a juvenile.
With track experience in the bag by virtue of his Group Three Tattersalls Stakes win last September, he could well follow in the hoofprints of his parents, Frankel and Attraction, by landing the Guineas for Sheikh Hamdan Al Maktoum and Mark Johnston.
At 5/1 he’s not really a bet for this column, though, and I wasn’t really tempted by an each-way wager on something at a fancy price given the quality at the top of the market.
Perhaps it would be dangerous to assume Murillo is a pacemaker for Ballydoyle as he had some good form as a two-year-old and was arguably unlucky not to beat Rajasinghe and Headway in the Coventry Stakes, but the fact is he’s been off for 308 days.
Given he’s got entries in races like the King’s Stand and Commonwealth Cup, it’s easy to envisage him dropping back to sprint distances after this and he could well show up well for a long way before weakening out of the places late on.
It’s a no-bet race for me, then, but the opening handicap, the Spring Lodge Stakes (1.50), is interesting as there looks to be a distinct lack of pace among the 16 runners.
Trulee Scrumptious likes to lead, but she can be ignored being 16lb out of the weights for a yard that seems to be struggling at the moment, and the only other one that likes to be up there is COTE D’AZUR who is worth backing at 20/1 (Betfair Sportsbook, Paddy Power).
There’s a very real possibility that he could get the run of the race in this and David Allan could well bag the stands’ rail from stall 10 and dictate on a horse that is dangerous in such a scenario.
This time last year he won the Thirsk Hunt Cup off a mark of 93, defying a wide draw when making all, and he ran third in the Cambridgeshire last September, again off a mark of 93, finishing second in the far-side group after leading for much of the contest.
He went up 3lb after that but is back down to 93 now after two down-the-field runs, his latest being on the all-weather at Lingfield in February.
Last year he ran to a similar level at Wolverhampton on his first run of the year before improving for the switch to turf, and it’s reasonable to assume a fully tuned-up Cote D’Azur will be on show now he’s back on the grass.
Given he’s back on the same mark as when he ran a cracker over course and distance in the Cambridgeshire, and considering the possibility of him getting the run of the race, he looks worth getting on side at 20s.
Sharja Bridge is an obvious danger and, on the balance of his form, this unexposed four-year-old could be very well-handicapped off 99.
His presence tempers enthusiasm for going double-handed in the race, with other shortlisted fancies like Brorocco, Third Time Lucky and Breden at the mercy of how fast they go. A sedate gallop wouldn’t suit that trio.
Over at Goodwood the ground is drying and it could well be ‘Good’ by the time they’re off for the Commission Free Racing At Matchbook Handicap (2.40), which is probably good news for the very well-handicapped MASHAM STAR (12/1 Betfair Sportsbook, Paddy Power).
Second off a mark of 100 on turf last season, he won off that rating on the all-weather at Chelmsford last September but gets to race off 91 on Saturday thanks in part to a couple of disappointing efforts this year.
However, he's better than that and the better ground, return to Goodwood and decreasing handicap mark can help him rediscover his mojo.
In the Betfred Mile at the Glorious meeting last year he led the field with a furlong to go off a mark of 97 before fading into sixth, and three weeks later he was a good fifth over seven furlongs off a rating of 100.
On those runs he has a good chance off 91 on Saturday and he’s landed the plum draw in stall one as well, with Joe Fanning expected to ensure a prominent position from an early stage.
He’s likely to be joined by stablemate Love Dreams on the front end, as well as the Richard Fahey-trained pair, so with a possible strong gallop in mind it’s probably not a bad idea to have a closer on side and at 33s (bet365) I can’t resist the veteran PASTORAL PLAYER.
Hughie Morrison’s charge is 11-years-old now and he’s not the easiest of rides, but Charlie Bennett knows him well and first time up in a hell-for-leather handicap around here is not a bad time to catch him.
His seasonal reappearance form figures are 1-2-1-6-7-6-2-8-2 and he’s got loads of form around Goodwood, including two wins in seven-furlong handicaps off ratings of 84 and 85.
He’s not out of this off 86 on Saturday – he won off 87 at Epsom last July - and from stall four with a likely good pace to aim at, he could well defy his advancing years if he has a charmed run and gets the breaks. At 33s, it’s worth rolling the dice.
Posted at 1700 BST on 04/05/18.
Ben Linfoot's Value Bet aim: The Value Bet is designed to generate long-term profit by searching for overpriced horses in the feature weekend races and at the big Festivals in the UK. Running total: +368.14pts to advised stakes/prices (from inception of Value Bet column in January 2010 to current).
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