Ben Linfoot seeks out the best bets for the final day of Glorious Goodwood and he has five selections including two against the field in the Stewards' Cup.
Recommended Bets: Value Bet Glorious Goodwood Day Five
1pt win Rasheeq in 1.50 Goodwood at 16/1 - ran well despite tardy start in Sky Bet Dash and that bodes well for another crack at six furlongs on ideal conditions
1pt win Getback In Paris in 2.25 Goodwood at 9/1 - the market leaders look vulnerable and Richard Hughes' charge is a solid course and distance winner that still looks on a competitive mark
1pt win Saigon City in 2.25 Goodwood at 10/1 - Declan Carroll's horse goes well fresh so having two months and more off is of no concern and he was better than ever on his two starts in the spring
1pt win Sir Dancealot in 3.35 Goodwood at 14/1 - the best-handicapped horse in the race officially as he's 9lb well-in and Ryan Moore takes the reins. Big price because of draw but well worth the risk
1pt win Al Qahwa in 3.35 Goodwood at 20/1 - if the far side is the place to be Al Qahwa could benefit as conditions look ideal for him and he still looks fairly handicapped on his York form
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Ryan Moore hit the bookies for six on day four of Glorious Goodwood and he could well do the same on Saturday when he gets the leg up on SIR DANCEALOT (14/1 Ladbrokes, Coral) in the feature Qatar Stewards’ Cup (3.35).
It would be some double for a couple of the owners who landed Friday’s Betfred Mile with Master The World, thanks in part to a ground-saving ride from Moore who timed his challenge to perfection as the pace in front of him collapsed.
Another inspired ride could be required here from stall 24 on the stands’ side, as the far side could well be favoured by the jockeys with the freshest ground being over there and the majority of early pace seems to be drawn on that part of the track too.
However, there couldn’t be a better man in the saddle to react quickly to any developing situation and you can be sure Moore won’t be caught in no man’s land whatever route he elects to take.
There is a chance he could be drawn out of it, but when you’re getting 14/1 about the best-handicapped horse in the race with the best jockey on top you’re not going to have everything in your favour and the positives outweigh the negatives by some distance.
Officially 9lb well-in, Sir Dancealot got into this early-closer off a mark of 101 after he was well beaten in the Jersey Stakes, but he’s already shown that to be lenient by effectively racing off 106 when finishing a close second in the Bunbury Cup last time when he was 5lb out of the handicap.
That was over seven furlongs, but he raced keenly in the first part of the race and this hell-for-leather six furlongs on testing ground could well be ideal. He’s unraced on soft ground, but he’s a big, strong horse, and it could be drying, tacky ground in any case.
I don’t think conditions will be an excuse and I’m prepared to take a punt on the draw. At 14s, I simply can’t resist him.
However, it does make sense to take one on the other side as well and the one I like is David O’Meara’s AL QAHWA from stall nine at 20/1 (Stan James, Boylesports, 18s General).
He’s fine on good to soft if it does dry out a bit as his excellent effort in defeat in the Sky Bet Dash last time proves.
Beaten a couple of lengths in second by the pacey Flying Pursuit, he did best of those to race in the centre of the track and he was clear of the rest off Saturday’s mark of 97.
If the ground remains hard work even better, as he loved the soft conditions when winning at York on his stable debut and I like that his best form has come at that track as it’s a pretty quick six on the Knavesmire.
Goodwood should suit and I expect him to race prominently among the far side pace. It could well be the place to be and, if it is, he still looks well-handicapped enough to play a massive part.
With conditions likely to be up his street, he looks a good second string to have on side at 20/1.
I’m putting plenty of faith in the Sky Bet Dash form as earlier I want to be with Tim Easterby’s RASHEEQ again at the general 16/1 in the consolation race, the Qatar Stewards’ Sprint (1.50).
Third for us last time at York, he couldn’t live with his stablemate that day but he did stumble coming out of the stalls and he was the same distance apart from the winner after 50 yards as he was at the finishing line.
A better start would’ve seen him get a bit closer and it was an encouraging run on only his second start over six for his new stable in eight starts.
I like that he has the pace for five with this race in mind and he’s another that has shown some of his best form on testing ground.
Drawn centrally around the early pace, he could get a nice tow into things and I’m not too concerned that he’s 2lb wrong – he does look fairly enough treated off 90 on his York form. Hopefully he can replicate that here as, if he does, he should go close.
Finally, the Qatar Summer Handicap (2.25) is always worth keeping an eye on for Ebor clues but it’s a good race in its own right and it has a really nice punting shape to it on Saturday.
Shraaoh is favourite but I have to be against him at this trip on testing ground, while stablemate Mainstream is second best in the market and he’s on a losing run of nine and has yet to race over the trip.
Sir Michael Stoute’s pair look beatable and two in particular look underestimated against them; firstly Richard Hughes’ GET BACK IN PARIS at 9/1 (General).
This son of Galileo has improved stepped up to 1m6f on his last two starts, the first of which was a victory at Goodwood off just a 3lb lower mark of 89.
You couldn’t say that form has worked out as it clearly hasn’t, but I liked the way he went about his business that day and he backed it up with a good effort in second at Ascot off his new mark last time where he travelled well throughout.
He was no match for the seriously progressive Mount Moriah that day, but there’s no shame in that and there’s every chance there’s more to come again now he returns to the scene of his recent career high.
The other one I like is Declan Carroll’s SAIGON CITY at 10/1 (General).
The son of Mount Nelson is pretty lightly-raced for a seven-year-old and he’s far from exposed, especially for his new yard who have only had him for six starts.
His last two efforts have been the best of his life, so he’s returned better than ever, and his last performance was a comfortable victory over subsequent Queen Alexandra winner Oriental Fox, the pair well clear of the rest.
That was his only previous effort over 1m6f, so there could be more to come at the trip and he’s only gone up 5lb for his last two excellent runs.
His Newmarket win came on soft ground, so he’ll be fine if the conditions remain tough and he goes really well fresh, so his 78-day absence is of no concern.
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Ben Linfoot's Value Bet aim: The Value Bet is designed to generate long-term profit by searching for overpriced horses in the feature weekend races and at the big Festivals in the UK. Running total: +389.39pts to advised stakes/prices (from inception of Value Bet column in January 2010 to current).
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Posted at 1700 BST on 04/08/17.
