Ben Linfoot seeks out the best Value Bet selections on Saturday's cards at Haydock, featuring the Sprint Cup, and Ascot.
Recommended Bets: Value Bet, Saturday September 9
1pt win Monsieur Joe in 3.00 Haydock at 20/1 - risky proposition but worth it at big odds now he's seriously well-handicapped on ground that he relishes
1pt win Tawdeea in 4.10 Haydock at 14/1 - goes very well in soft ground as he showed at this track last season. Well handicapped and shaped well on Thursday after seven-week break
1pt win Lualiwa in 2.45 Ascot at 14/1 - in really good form and should be able to settle better in bigger field with talented 3lb claimer booked
1pt win Torcello in 3.55 Ascot at 10/1 - should relish this new trip judging by the way he races and pedigree. Handles soft ground well and on the up
1pt win Mam’Selle in 3.55 Ascot at 12/1 - William Haggas' patient approach with this filly is beginning to pay dividends; stays well and handles the ground
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Harry Angel is the star attraction at Haydock on Saturday in the 32Red Sprint Cup and the plentiful rainfall at the track in the last few days means he’s available at odds that were unthinkable a week or so ago.
Generally 9/4 on Friday evening, it’s a price that will tempt in plenty of punters considering he was 11/8 and 6/4 across the board at the start of the week. The ground is undoubtedly a question mark, but it’s becoming well factored into his odds and if he drifts any more I doubt I’ll be able to resist.
I'm certainly not as keen to take him on as some. He’s the best horse in the race on all known form, has the potential to be even better than he’s already shown after just six starts and he’s trained by a master handler of sprinters in Clive Cox.
If it got really heavy he might be pulled out, but let’s hope that’s not the case as his presence in the field adds a sprinkle of stardust to proceedings.
Brando is a threat, but he looks very short now at 3/1 as I’m not mad keen on his Maurice de Gheest form, so a bigger danger could be Tasleet. He was far too free in the July Cup, but he hosed up on soft ground at York in May and if he settles he could be the one to give the favourite most to do.
Though there’s a plethora of top-quality Group action all over the place this weekend I’m going to concentrate on the handicaps, starting with the 32Red Casino Handicap (4.10 Haydock), formerly known as the Old Borough Cup.
This race has attracted a smaller field than usual, but I still expect it to be run at a solid enough gallop relative to the conditions with Tim Easterby’s pair, My Reward and Mukhayyam, likely to be prominent from the outset.
Considering that scenario and the testing ground I can envisage Thursday’s third TAWDEEA travelling into contention nicely and at 14/1 (bet365, William Hill) he looks overpriced.
This five-year-old gelding loves soft ground and Haydock and in the July of last year those two factors were combined to give him a handicap win off a mark of 95.
He’s won off 102 at Leicester since then, but he’s back down to 98 now and he ran well at this track on Thursday off that mark. That came off a seven-week break and he shaped well, staying on into third without being given too hard a race.
On that evidence he’s worth another go at 1m6f, especially at a track he likes on ground he loves, and if he comes on a bit for Thursday’s outing he could go close for Silvestre de Sousa, who rides the horse for the first time.
Earlier on I’m going to take a risk on a horse that has been running well below par in recent starts when MONSIEUR JOE (20/1, bet365, Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook) lines up in the 32Red Be Friendly Handicap at 3.00.
You have to forgive him three poor runs and I’m fully prepared to do that considering he’s now dropped to a handicap mark of 89, his lowest rating for seven years, while encountering soft ground for the first time since June.
That performance came at Haydock and he ran well, finishing just behind horses rated 110, 102 and 96 while being ahead of a quartet rated 95, 109, 94 and 95.
The first horse rated 95 in that list was Soie D’Leau, last year’s winner of this contest. He hasn’t been missed in the market and is 8/1 second favourite, but he does have nearly two lengths to make up with Monsieur Joe with Paul Midgley’s horse double the price.
He is a risky proposition, there is no doubt, but the hope is he won’t get outpaced in these softer conditions and that he’s well-enough handicapped now to take advantage of his falling mark.
Over at Ascot there are a couple of really good heats including the seven-furlong Cunard Handicap at 2.45.
This looks a good race to take on the market leaders as I couldn’t trust Birchwood to put in another effort like he did at Goodwood off a 3lb higher mark, while Squats is always a hostage to fortune in this type of race.
The one I like is Kevin Ryan’s LUALIWA at 14/1 (Sky Bet, Bet Victor) as he’s improving fast and I’m looking forward to seeing him in a big field.
He’s been first twice and second twice in his last four runs and those two defeats came after racing keenly in the early part of the contests.
Last time he travelled strongly over six furlongs here at the Shergar Cup, but he stays seven well and he acts on soft ground, too.
The handicapper doesn’t look to have caught up with him yet and if useful 3lb claimer David Egan can get him settled in this big field in the early part of the contest then he could well continue his upward curve.
Finally, William Haggas and Andrew Balding dead-heated with Wonder Laish and Duretto in the Appletiser Handicap a couple of years ago and both trainers have likely types for the contest once again.
Haggas runs MAM’SELLE (12/1, Coral, 888Sport) and this Teofilo filly has won her last two handicaps really easily in the style of a highly-progressive horse.
She won a Ladies Amateur Riders race last time, but that’s no reason to look at her form in a negative light as she’s flourishing now thanks to patient handling and there looks plenty more to come.
The Newbury ground last time was soft, so she’ll have no problem with the conditions and she stays well, too. Up 7lb, it’s worth chancing she can cope with that hike now she’s unleashed in a better race.
As for Balding’s TORCELLO (10/1 bet365, William Hill, Stan James) he’s another on the up following a victory on his handicap debut at Newmarket last time.
The way he stayed on that day suggested the step up in trip might eke out further improvement and his grand-dam, Dancing Sunset, was a two-time winner over 1m4f including a Group Three at the Curragh.
Up just 4lb for his July Course win, Torcello still looks fairly treated and he’s already proven that testing ground holds no fears when he was learning all about the game.
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Ben Linfoot's Value Bet aim: The Value Bet is designed to generate long-term profit by searching for overpriced horses in the feature weekend races and at the big Festivals in the UK. Running total: +372.39pts to advised stakes/prices (from inception of Value Bet column in January 2010 to current).
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Posted at 1700 BST on 08/09/17.
