Our Value Bet tipster Ben Linfoot seeks out the best bets at the prices on day two of the Craven Meeting at Newmarket and he fancies a couple at double-figure odds.
Recommended Bets: Value Bet, Craven Meeting day two
1pt win Eastern Impact in 1.50 Newmarket at 10/1
1pt win Rufus King in 2.25 Newmarket at 11/1
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After the wettest of springs it was a real bonus to enjoy a sunny start to the Craven Meeting at Newmarket on Tuesday and the warmer weather joined forces with some strong breezes to significantly dry out the ground.
With the official going ‘Good to Soft, Soft in places’ at the start of the day it was soon changed to ‘Good to Soft’ and, considering the warm forecast over the next few days, it's only going to dry out further as the meeting goes on.
So here we are with proper Flat racing on turf that doesn’t resemble a bog, who would’ve thought that was possible only a week ago? The ITV cameras are in town, too, for the second day of the Craven Meeting and the action is headed by a couple of Group Three contests; the Lanwades Stud Nell Gwyn Stakes and the bet365 Earl Of Sefton.
The Nell Gwyn has been a pointer towards the 1000 Guineas in the past, with Speciosa winning both races 12 years ago before the 2013 runner-up, Sky Lantern, went one better just over two weeks’ later in the fillies’ Classic.
This year’s renewal doesn’t have an obvious Guineas contender, with Aidan O’Brien perhaps using the 95-rated Dramatically as a sighter for various star fillies that may or may not turn up at Headquarters on the first Sunday in May. Even without Clemmie, O’Brien has the strongest of Guineas hands.
I couldn’t find a bet in the Nell Gwyn, or the Earl Of Sefton for that matter, but the opening two handicaps on the card appeal from a punting perspective and I have to back Mark Johnston’s RUFUS KING at 11/1 (General) in the bet365 European Free Handicap.
The son of Iffraaj bumped into a very good horse in Headway at Lingfield last time, beating the rest of the field comfortably bar William Haggas’ charge who came from the clouds to score impressively under James Doyle.
Rufus King showed he'd improved from two to three, though, with that performance, something none of his other rivals have managed to do as yet. The two rivals that have run were disappointing while the other seven are making their seasonal reappearance.
Fitness might come into things, then, but you can easily make a strong case for Rufus King purely on the formbook.
The key piece of form is the nursery he won on this track on his final start at two, as the horse he pulled away from the field with, Porth Swtan, boosted that run when winning division two of the Alex Scott Maiden here on Tuesday.
Rufus King was three lengths and more clear of the rest, winning well off a mark of 97, and he’s only 6lb higher than that now despite running Headway close last time. Haggas’ charge is rated 108 and considered a lively outsider for the Guineas, so there’s reason to believe Rufus King has been underestimated both by the handicapper, and the market.
The one slight concern is stall 10 with the stalls situated on the far side, but there doesn't look to be an awful lot of early pace against him in the contest and he might be able to get across and dominate anyway.
That could be vital if the forecast breeze is as strong as it was on Tuesday, the drying ground is massively in his favour and at double-figure prices he’s well worth getting on side.
The opening race on the card is the Weatherbys General Stud Book Handicap (1.50) over six furlongs and Roger Varian’s Ekhtiyaar could be tough to beat in this if he’s fully tuned-up for the task in hand.
That, though, is the key question as most of Varian’s have looked to be needing a run, as his one win from 32 goes this year stat suggests. His two wins on both courses at Newmarket make him very interesting here, but he just might need the outing and at 9/2 I'm prepared to take him on.
Richard Fahey might've had plenty more running for him this year, but he hasn't had any trouble finding winners with 16 already to his name and his EASTERN IMPACT (10/1 General) also loves his trips to Newmarket, while he's also often worth backing first time out.
He won on debut, he won on his 2015 reappearance (on the Rowley Mile) and he was second, again on this track, on his first run last year.
Those Newmarket efforts were in handicaps off 104 and 102, so he’s really well handicapped off 97 and, despite a below-par season in 2017, he ended the last campaign with an encouraging fourth off his current rating at York.
After a nice long break he's dead interesting back at his favourite track off his lowest rating for four years and the icing on the cake is the drying ground as he’s very much at his best on 'Good' or better.
His trainer says he might need the run in his Craven column on these pages, but with so much else in his favour he's definitely worth chancing at 10s.
Posted at 1700 BST on 17/04/18.
Ben Linfoot's Value Bet aim: The Value Bet is designed to generate long-term profit by searching for overpriced horses in the feature weekend races and at the big Festivals in the UK. Running total: +384.14pts to advised stakes/prices (from inception of Value Bet column in January 2010 to current).
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