Ben Linfoot seeks out the best Value Bets on day one of Glorious Goodwood and he has four selections including a big outsider in the feature.
Recommended Bets: Value Bet Goodwood Day One
1pt win Oasis Fantasy in 1.50 Goodwood at 12/1 - dropped down to a competitive mark and new headgear could well be another positive
1pt win Dark Red in 1.50 Goodwood at 20/1 - also interesting off new rating and did best of those up with the pace at Newmarket Saturday
1pt e.w. Desert Skyline in 3.35 Goodwood at 40/1 - trainer has exploited weight-for-age allowance before and this improving stayer looks underestimated
1pt win Boom The Groom in 4.45 Goodwood at 15/2 - won this race last year and looked in good heart at Epsom; gets weight pull with two main rivals
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It’s got a new slot giving day one of Glorious Goodwood a shot in the arm, it’s got over £200,000 more in the prizemoney kitty than last year and it’s got a brand new Group One status, but the Qatar Goodwood Cup could have a very familiar feeling to it come Tuesday afternoon.
That’s because the day one poster boy, Big Orange, goes for his third successive win in the contest and he goes into it in the form of his life following a gutsy and brilliant victory over Order Of St George in the Ascot Gold Cup back in June.
With that rival on a midsummer break the path is clear for Big Orange to collect the enormous £296,593.30 first prize, but the 12mm of rain they had at the track on Saturday gives hope to the rest of the field that he won’t run away with the loot this time.
All of Big Orange’s big wins have come on rattling fast ground and, even with a few drying days since Saturday, it isn’t going to be as quick as he’d ideally like it to be. With no more rain forecast before the race, he might just get away with it. But, at 5/6, there’s enough of a doubt there to take him on.
Given he dominates the market there could be some mileage in backing something against him each-way and one at a huge price that I think has been underestimated is David Elsworth’s DESERT SKYLINE at 40/1 (bet365, 1/4 1,2,3, 33s General 1/5 1,2,3).
This horse has previous when it comes to winning at massive odds, as he won his maiden at 40/1 last season, and he’s steadily improved since then, including this campaign, the more he has stepped up in trip.
That’s not really a surprise as he’s related to several stayers including a winning hurdler, so there’s every chance he’ll improve again now he tackles two miles for the first time.
He certainly stayed on well enough in the Bahrain Trophy last time when he kept on for second behind Raheen House, a 110-rated rival that is as short as 9/1 for the St Leger. With five horses rated 100-plus in behind he could well be a better horse than his 101 rating suggests and this could be a fine bit of placing from David Elsworth.
The three-year-olds get 13lb from their elders, a significant chunk of weight over a staying distance and, while most eyes are on John Gosden’s fellow three-year-old Stradivarius, it’s Desert Skyline that’s flying under the radar at 40/1.
He does have nearly four lengths to find with Stradivarius on their Queen’s Vase form, but nothing went right for Desert Skyline at Royal Ascot, as he was squeezed for room at the start and subsequently looked on from the rear, finding trouble a couple of times in the straight.
Hard-luck stories are synonymous with Goodwood and if he’s held up again he may well need a bit of good fortune, but he has a nice draw in 13 to gain a good position in the short run to the first bend if David Probert gets him out quickly.
Elsworth, who trained the three-year-old Arabian Queen to win the Group One Juddmonte International at odds of 50/1, reaches for the first-time cheekpieces to help him go through with his finishing effort and if the combination of the new headgear and the new trip spark some further improvement, he could well cause a surprise.
Earlier on OASIS FANTASY (12/1 general) looks handicapped to strike again in the opening Matchbook Betting Exchange Handicap at 1.50.
Rated 105 at the end of last season, he’s dropped 12lb in six runs to a mark of 93, 5lb lower than when he was a neck second to Fire Fighting in this corresponding race last campaign.
There have been glimpses of good form among some less spectacular efforts, though, notably when he last ran over 10 furlongs in the soft ground at York back in May. He was beaten six lengths by Master Carpenter that day, but he now gets an 11lb pull at the weights.
Trainer David Simcock also opts for a fresh headgear combination of a first-time hood and cheekpieces, which could be a good move considering how easily he won off just a 4lb lower mark in first-time blinkers at the start of last season.
He’s got a good draw in three, a really good course record, and at 12s he’s worth backing to get his head back in front again.
Lots of the fancied horses are drawn out wide in this and while I wouldn’t discount them solely on that basis the likes of Garcia, UAE Prince and Khairaat look short enough considering they’ll likely have to make up some ground at some stage.
With that in mind I want Ed Dunlop’s DARK RED on side as well at 20/1 (general), as he also has a nice starting berth in stall two and he’s another one at the bottom of the weights that looks like he is running back towards peak form.
He rattled off a hat-trick after being gelded at the start of last year, rising from 75 to 95 in the weights after those three runs, but he’s winless since and is back to down to a rating of 92 which gives him a real chance.
Indeed, he ran off that mark at Newmarket on Saturday and he was a very close third after doing the best of those that raced up with the pace throughout.
He’s backed up his efforts without much time in between his races before, so the three-day gap isn’t a concern, and he finished his race really well here when third on his sole start at the track a couple of years ago.
Finally, BOOM THE GROOM can win the New & Lingwood Handicap (4.45) for the second year running at 15/2 (General).
Tony Carroll’s six-year-old loves downhill tracks as his runs at Epsom and Goodwood testify and he looked in great nick at the former track two starts ago when sixth in the Dash.
He didn’t get the clearest of runs that day, but he was only beaten a length and a half at the line, and he gets a 5lb pull at the weights with Dark Shot and a 3lb pull with A Momentofmadness who finished slightly in front of him.
All three are available at around the 8/1 mark, but, with the weight pulls and the return to Goodwood in Boom The Groom’s favour, he looks the one to be on.
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Ben Linfoot's Value Bet aim: The Value Bet is designed to generate long-term profit by searching for overpriced horses in the feature weekend races and at the big Festivals in the UK. Running total: +382.39pts to advised stakes/prices (from inception of Value Bet column in January 2010 to current).
Click here for full Value Bet record
Posted at 1700 BST on 31/07/17.
