Value Bet tipster Ben Linfoot has four selections for Saturday's action at York's Ebor Festival and at Goodwood.
Recommended Bets: Value Bet Saturday, August 26
1pt win Star Storm in 3.35 York at 14/1 - this trip could be perfect for him on recent evidence, wide draw isn't an issue and shaped nicely with this race in mind at Ascot latest
1pt win Natural Scenery in 3.35 York at 20/1 - well handicapped on Group Three form for trainer who excels in this race; in-form jockey's 3lb claim could be vital
1pt win Dark Pearl in 2.25 York at 16/1 - bred for this test and ran really well on handicap debut latest, could improve significantly for step up if he settles
1pt win Frank Bridge in 2.45 Goodwood at 20/1 - loves downhill tracks, drawn nicely, race could be run to suit on ground that can help him resume his improvement
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It’s only five years since Saeed bin Suroor won the Betfred Ebor Handicap for the second time when Willing Foe landed the prize money under Frankie Dettori and the Newmarket handler could well plunder the big pot again this weekend.
With £285,000 up for grabs the Ebor remains Europe’s most valuable Flat handicap and at 20/1 (bet365, 18s General) it’s Bin Suroor’s NATURAL SCENERY that makes the most appeal at the prices.
Only 9lb separates the top and bottom weights, Soldier In Action and Magic Circle, two horses that carry penalties in this because of recent wins, and in a very tight handicap we’re looking at fine margins and that extra edge.
Natural Scenery is a filly that brings strong recent Group Three form to the table, and she stays well, as you might expect from a half-sister to two-mile winner Bordoni, both being out of the Sadler’s Wells mare, Argentina.
Bordoni didn’t often wear cheekpieces, but he put in one of his best hurdling performances when he sported the headgear in victory at Hexham once, and the reapplied sheepskin helped Natural Scenery to her best ever turf performance at Goodwood last time.
It was an effort that gives major hope she’s as good on turf as she is on an artificial surface, and the way she travelled into the Group Three Lillie Langtry Stakes against some talented fillies suggests she could be well treated off 105.
Previous to that she finished second in the Northumberland Plate on the Newcastle Tapeta off just a 2lb lower mark, with Saturday’s Ebor favourite Flymetothestars a neck behind in third. They race off identical terms this weekend.
She improved on soft ground at Goodwood last time, but there’s no suggestion she needs such a surface and the drying conditions should be fine. It was her first turf run in eight starts and she just looks an improved filly whatever she’s running on.
As for the extra edge, step forward 3lb claiming jockey Eddie Greatrex. Claimers have a good recent record in the Ebor, with Louis Steward and Adam McNamara’s allowances helping them to win two of the last three renewals, and Greatrex is in really good form.
The young jockey has ridden 11 winners this month at a 20 per cent strike-rate and he’s +£44 to a £1 level stake for July and August combined. On top of this, he’s ridden three winners from six goes for Bin Suroor.
Natural Scenery is drawn in six, but a wide starting berth has not been a negative at all in the last decade, in fact, quite the opposite, and I wouldn’t be put off by stall 20 for James Fanshawe’s STAR STORM at 14/1 (General).
This horse was dropped 4lb from 107 after finishing second to Desert Encounter at Ascot, but subsequent performances from the winner, not least his Coral-Eclipse third, suggest that was a generous bit of handicapping.
The son of Sea The Stars went some way to proving that when finishing third off 103 in the Duke Of Edinburgh Stakes at Royal Ascot last time, finishing well despite running into trouble two furlongs out.
Raised a solitary pound after that, he’s well worth another go at a trip in excess of 1m4f after travelling very smoothly when tried over two miles at Newcastle in December.
With that performance in mind, as well as his efforts over a mile and a half, there is plenty of optimism that the intermediate trip in the Ebor could be perfect for him, and at 16/1 it’s worth paying to find out.
Earlier on, it’s the three-year-old’s Ebor at 2.25, or the Betfred Melrose Handicap to give it its full name, and Ed Walker’s DARK PEARL appeals most at 16/1 (General).
Given his owners, you might think some lofty targets in Australia might be on the agenda for this horse at some stage, if he develops, and he’s certainly one of the few horses in this field that is truly bred for the 1m6f trip.
His half-sister is Cosette, a filly that stayed 1m6f and two miles, while their dam, Luanas Peral, was a half-sister to two-mile Group Three winner Tastahil, who went very close off a mark of 83 in a handicap at this track as a four-year-old.
Dark Pearl runs off the same mark, and, after his handicap debut off a couple of pounds lower last time, when third at Ascot, he has more to offer, especially now he tackles this kind of trip.
He was a bit keen at Ascot and travelled really strongly once he settled, so I do hope he relaxes better in the early stages, but the big field can help him do that and it was encouraging how well he stayed on last time despite pulling in the first part of the race.
If he does settle well significant improvement is expected now he tackles a trip, and this St Leger entry looks well worth chancing at prices around the 16/1 mark.
Finally, FRANK BRIDGE is worth backing at 20/1 (Boylesports, Betfair Sportsbook, 18s General) in the Grosvenor Sport Handicap at Goodwood (2.45).
Eve Johnson Houghton’s horse is superb around downhill tracks like Brighton and Epsom, so it’s with great anticipation that he lines up at Goodwood for the first time.
On top of this he’s landed a plum draw in stall one and Charles Bishop should be able to get settled in a nice position just off the leaders, with the early pace drawn in stalls seven, nine and 10.
With track position so vital around here, that scenario gives him a good chance of getting the run of the race and back on better ground than he faced at Sandown last time, he’s taken to resume his upward curve.
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Ben Linfoot's Value Bet aim: The Value Bet is designed to generate long-term profit by searching for overpriced horses in the feature weekend races and at the big Festivals in the UK. Running total: +376.39pts to advised stakes/prices (from inception of Value Bet column in January 2010 to current).
Posted at 1700 BST on 25/08/17.
