Ben Linfoot seeks out the best Value Bet selections at York and Sandown on Saturday afternoon with Tim Easterby fancied to win the Knavesmire feature once again.
Recommended Bets: Value Bet, June 16
1pt win Lualiwa in 2.25 York at 16/1
1pt win Muntadab in 2.25 York at 14/1
1pt win Manson in 3.15 Sandown at 16/1
1pt win Angels in 3.35 York at 18/1
For details of advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record
Some heavy showers are forecast at York during racing on Saturday, so at the very least you’d expect the sting to be taken out of the ground and we could get a going change or two throughout the afternoon.
It makes sense to side with horses who won’t mind a bit of rain and I think one of those might well be Tim Easterby’s ANGELS in the feature Pavers Foundation Catherine Memorial Sprint Handicap (3.35) at 18/1 (Coral, SunBets, 16s General).
The first thing to acknowledge with her is that she has a 10-and-a-half length deficit to overturn with likely favourite Foxtrot Lady from Carlisle a week ago, but that wasn’t her true running and she has some viable excuses for my money.
The ground was probably faster than ideal for one, while she did too much too soon early and she raced on the inside part of the track while all the action unfolded up the middle.
Given an easy time of things once her chance had gone, it’s worth just putting a line through the run and looking back on her previous two efforts which suggest she is a talented sprinter full of potential.
She gets a 7lb pull at the weights with Foxtrot Lady, anyway, which helps, but it’s her runs at Ripon and Pontefract earlier this season which make her really interesting in this from the bottom of the weights and off a mark of 85.
It was at Ripon on May 11 where she really caught the eye, pulverising an 83-rated rival by four lengths off level weights as she relished the drop back to six furlongs after running over seven on debut two weeks previously.
After that she beat Hugo Palmer’s Breaking Records by nearly three lengths under hands and heels riding at Pontefract, with that rival subsequently franking the form with a length victory in a Haydock handicap off a mark of 80.
It was no wonder she was sent off 11/8 for that Carlisle handicap eight days ago, and such a blip shouldn’t see her trading at 18/1 for this, especially as her trainer has won the race three times in the last five years including 12 months ago.
That day Jimmy Sullivan rode Golden Apollo to victory off a low weight following a quick turnaround and, at the prices, it’s worth backing lightning striking twice with Angels.
Earlier on at York it’s the JCB Handicap over seven furlongs and Spanish City looks the right favourite here following his narrow win at Doncaster last time.
The third home that day, Escobar, franked the form at Haydock on Thursday night and, up just 3lb, you’d expect Spanish City to be competitive again.
The one thing that puts me off him is that he seemed to relish a strong pace at Doncaster and that’s not guaranteed in this with only a few likely to go forward.
With tactics in mind in and in what looks a tight race from a handicapping point of view, I’m taking two horses against the field that could dominate from a prominent position.
LUALIWA (16/1 General) and MUNTADAB (14/1 General) are the duo in question and the former is nicely drawn in stall one for trainer Kevin Ryan.
He should be able to conserve energy in the early stages from that berth, something he hasn’t been able to do on his last two starts. He used up too much petrol from a wide draw here at York last time, while before that he did too much too soon in testing ground at Haydock.
Back at York from a nice draw he should go well and he usually does go well here, finishing second and first in handicaps on the Knavesmire last summer.
His very easy win at Musselburgh off 92 at the end of March is good recent form and it tells you he’s still fairly handicapped when things drop his way considering his current rate of progression.
I want him on side but he might not get things his own way up front with Muntadab in close attendance.
He was outclassed in the John Of Gaunt at Haydock last week but his second in a handicap off his current mark of 100 at Chester prior to that gives hope that he can be competitive back at this level.
He’s another that goes well at York having finished a very close second here twice in big-field handicaps and he’s improved his form since stepping up to seven furlongs.
The Invincible Spirit gelding absolutely loves getting his toe in so he’d appreciate every drop of rain they get and it’s well worth taking the 16s in anticipation of the heavy showers.
Finally, it could be worth chancing MANSON at 16/1 (General) in the Randox Health Handicap at Sandown (3.15).
There’s nothing obviously progressing at a rate of knots in this race and it looks another tight handicap where course nous might count for plenty.
Which is good, as this horse goes well at Sandown having won a handicap here off 85, while he was a close fourth off 93 and fifth off 95 in his next two starts at the track.
His form tailed off last season, including a below-par run here, but he’s dropped 3lb to a more competitive mark on the back of it and he goes very well fresh. Indeed, that win off 85 here came off a six-month break and this is his first start for 255 days.
The first-time blinkers might well wake him up, too. It’s encouraging that he ran well in first-time cheekpieces the only time he tried the sheepskin and his famous half-brother, Jack Hobbs, won a certain Sheema Classic in first-time blinkers.
He likes to come from off the pace and when he won here they didn’t go that fast, he just seems to click into top gear when he faces the Sandown hill. If the blinkers and the break have sharpened him up his course form entitles him to be shorter than the 16/1 available.
Posted at 1700 BST on 15/06/18.
Ben Linfoot's Value Bet aim: The Value Bet is designed to generate long-term profit by searching for overpriced horses in the feature weekend races and at the big Festivals in the UK. Running total: +338.14pts to advised stakes/prices (from inception of Value Bet column in January 2010 to current).
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