Ben Linfoot's Value Bet: Glorious Goodwood day four tips

Recommended Bets: Value Bet Glorious Goodwood Day Four

1pt win GK Chesterton in 3.00 Goodwood at 12/1 - easily forgiven last run, highly progressive prior to that and will love the ground. Blinkers on first time and won in fresh headgear before

1pt e.w Masham Star in 3.00 Goodwood at 33/1 - might get away with wide draw on this ground with few pacesetters, his yard's 3YOs have good record in this race and should also like the ground/test

1pt win Final Venture in 3.35 Goodwood at 20/1 - plenty of his opponents have ground worries but he doesn't and he's in the form of his life after excellent run at York latest

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The draw has been very important in the Betfred Mile at Glorious Goodwood down the years, but just about all of that collected data has been gathered when the ground has ridden good or better and the best value could lie in a couple of horses drawn wide on Friday.

There isn’t a lot of early pace drawn low, for starters, which could allow those prominent racers handed a wide berth to get across quickly, while it’s anyone’s guess where the best ground will be come Friday afternoon.

Spread all over the place in a couple of races on Thursday, it was really hard work in the ground, officially soft, heavy in places, and, even if no more rain falls in the build-up to Friday’s racing, it’s going to be tough to get through again.

I wouldn’t be too quick to implicitly trust that a low draw is highly beneficial on this occasion, then, and that leads me to the chances of GK CHESTERTON and why he’s worth backing at 12/1 (William Hill, Ladbrokes, 32Red) from stall 14.

The only obvious frontrunner drawn on his inside is Zhui Feng, so it would be no surprise if James Doyle managed to obtain a prominent position early on despite his wide draw, and he’s an improving son of Poet’s Voice that will love the ground.

A two-time winner from four starts this season, he was a neck second on one of his other runs and then nothing went right for him in the Hunt Cup. He had to settle for a position in mid-division as the centre group joined the stands’-side group and then he was carried right by the hanging Early Morning.

He was still in there with a chance a furlong out despite all that, but he was eased off when his chance had gone and he’s much better than that performance.

The four-year-old is better judged on his wins at Newmarket and Epsom prior to that, off marks of 89 and 94. The first victory came on soft ground, which he loved, and he backed it up on Epsom’s turning track in first-time cheekpieces.

Both wins were impressive and the form of both has been franked. The cheekpieces have been replaced by first-time blinkers, so hopefully the fresh headgear will have the desired effect again, and this just looks like the perfect race for him to resume his progression, especially in the conditions.

The other one I’m going to take a chance on, each-way at least, is Mark Johnston’s MASHAM STAR at 33/1 (General ¼ 1,2,3,4).

He has a wide draw in 18 to defy, but, as discussed, he might be able to get across quickly under PJ McDonald and if he does get into a good rhythm in a prominent position he could be tough to kick out of the frame.

The son of Lawman goes well in soft ground, as he showed when finishing second in such conditions at Hamilton off 97, the same mark he runs off on Friday, and I think he’s going to love this turning track.

One of his best efforts this season came around Chester’s tight turns, and while that’s going the other way around it suggests he might just relish inching away from plenty of his rivals when he negotiates the right-hand turn at Goodwood.

Three-year-olds get half a stone from the older horses and they’ve got a decent record in this race in recent years, winning four of the last nine renewals.

Two of those winners, Sea Lord and Fulbright, were trained by Johnston and Masham Star is the sole three-year-old to take part this year.

He’s 2lb well in, remains in really good form and though he’s 0 from 13 this year he’s been incredibly consistent and it would be just typical of this yard to halt a losing sequence like that in a big one at Goodwood.

Finally, Paul Midgley’s FINAL VENTURE is overpriced at 20/1 (bet365, 16s General) in the Qatar King George Stakes (3.35).

This horse is in the form of his life after running Take Cover to half a length giving him 3lb at York last time and he handles soft ground well.

Placed in similar conditions earlier in his career, he won a Listed race at Haydock on soft in June, where he dug in tenaciously to see off Kyllang Rock giving him 7lb.

Profitable is the one to beat in the conditions, but Battaash, Marsha, Take Cover, Kachy and Priceless are either better on faster turf or are unproven in testing ground and, at a big price, Final Venture could take advantage.

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Ben Linfoot's Value Bet aim: The Value Bet is designed to generate long-term profit by searching for overpriced horses in the feature weekend races and at the big Festivals in the UK. Running total: +393.39pts to advised stakes/prices (from inception of Value Bet column in January 2010 to current).

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Posted at 1700 BST on 02/08/17.