Ben Linfoot seeks out the best Value Bets at Ascot and Haydock on Saturday with the focus on the Holloways Handicap Hurdle and Peter Marsh Chase.
Recommended Bets Value Bet, January 20
1pt win Oxwich Bay in 2.25 Ascot at 6/1
1pt win Man Of Plenty in 2.25 Ascot at 20/1
1pt win Forest Des Aigles in 3.15 Haydock at 10/1
With Bryony Frost and James Bowen hogging the limelight in recent weeks it’s clear claiming jockeys are having a big say in the feature handicaps and that trend might well continue at Ascot on Saturday.
Indeed, the feature handicap at Ascot, the Ascot Spring Garden Show Holloway’s Handicap Hurdle, over the extended 2m3f, features no less than nine claiming jockeys in a field of 14.
Bowen has the chance to win a big Saturday handicap for the third successive week as he rides likely favourite Jenkins, a horse that won just seven days ago over almost half a mile shorter.
He’s favourite, but this comes around quickly and he’s not straightforward, while the handicapper has burdened him with 11lb extra before you take into account Bowen’s more-than-handy 5lb.
On balance I want to take him on and Crossed My Mind, a 6/1 chance, looks short enough on the bare form as well. He could improve sufficiently over this sort of trip on softer ground, but he’ll have to and I’m happy to put a line through him at 6s.
With Ben Pauling’s stable under a cloud Le Breuil has an added factor to overcome and he was brushed aside (albeit by a subsequent winner) in any case off Saturday’s mark when second at Aintree in December.
But of the four dominating the top of the market, the one I can’t put a line through is Evan Williams’ OXWICH BAY and at 6/1 (General) he’s worth a bet.
A full-brother to Pobbles Bay, a 146-rated chaser at his best, Oxwich Bay has made just as promising a start to his career and has plenty more to offer now he’s been stepped up in trip, just like his sibling.
Pobbles Bay has won over three miles and that’s probably where Oxwich Bay will end up eventually, but, for now, two and a half miles on testing ground (further rain forecast could turn the ground even softer) looks ideal and he looked as good as ever when trying the distance for the first time on his latest start.
He was entitled to win that - an average Ffos Las maiden hurdle - but the way he did it, which was very easily, suggests he’s one to keep on the right side of over the distance, especially now he’s back in a handicap off a mark of 124.
Which brings us back to the claimers, as Mitchell Bastyan is another young jockey well worth his 5lb and taking that off Oxwich Bay on Saturday could prove to be crucial.
Given the question marks about his market rivals and considering his potential for further improvement at the trip, I’d make Oxwich Bay a narrow favourite. Anything around 6/1 looks a good bet.
At the other end of the market there is one that looks a touch overpriced and that horse is Sophie Leech’s MAN OF PLENTY at 20/1 (General).
It’s 17 races since he last got his head in front, but he’s run some cracking races in defeat including here last time when he was fifth behind Hunters Call in the Racing Welfare Handicap Hurdle from out of the weights.
Earlier in the season he ran a good race in heavy ground at Haydock when second behind Limited Reserve and the thing I really liked about that effort was that he pulled 12 lengths clear of Clyne, a real specialist in the Haydock mud.
A visor has sharpened his efforts over two miles on his last two starts, but I’m interested to see how he gets on in the headgear now he’s stepped back up in trip.
He stays well, handles testing ground, has form at the course and with a few front runners in here could well get the race run to suit. Sean Houlihan, taking off 7lb, rides him well and if he times his challenge right Man Of Plenty could well cause a shock.
Finally, Haydock faces a morning inspection with frost forecast, but if it thaws out in time and passes that then it’s going to be brutally testing ground for the Peter Marsh Chase.
They’ve had 55mm of rain in the past week and that brings Hainan into things as he improved over three-and-a-half miles at Haydock in heavy ground a couple of months ago.
However, he’s come in for support this week and looks about right in the market now, so I’m going to take a chance on Lucinda Russell’s FOREST DES AIGLES at 10/1 (General).
This seven-year-old takes a step up in class on Saturday, which is partly why he’s 10/1. It’s very difficult to argue a form case for him as this is the best opposition he’s faced in his career and we just don’t know if he’s up to it.
But he’s been very impressive in a lower grade this season, winning three from three, all handicap chases, all in testing ground, twice over two-and-a-half miles and then on his first go over three last time.
He’s gone up 21lb in the weights, from 112 to 133, and has done so because he’s outclassed his opposition, travelling like a class operator and jumping like one too.
His only semblance of an error in his last three runs came at the final fence last time at Bangor, but it looked like a lack of concentration more than anything, probably due to another easy assignment, and he responded to it well by motoring away to the line.
That was really encouraging on his first go at three miles and there is plenty of potential improvement to come from him over this sort of trip. For me, he’s the one horse in the race that could be much better than his current mark.
With conditions holding no fear, he’s worth chancing to get the better of some more experienced rivals, getting weight from pretty much all of them.
Posted at 1700 GMT on 19/01/18.
Ben Linfoot's Value Bet aim: The Value Bet is designed to generate long-term profit by searching for overpriced horses in the feature weekend races and at the big Festivals in the UK. Running total: +369.89pts to advised stakes/prices (from inception of Value Bet column in January 2010 to current).
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