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Cheltenham Festival day three Value Bets: Star tipster Ben Linfoot has five selections for Thursday
Our flagship racing tipster Ben Linfoot seeks out the best Value Bets on day three of the 2018 Cheltenham Festival and he has five selections.
Recommended Bets: Value Bet Cheltenham Festival Day Two
1pt win Bigmartre in 1.30 Cheltenham at 16/1
1pt win Delta Work in 2.10 Cheltenham at 12/1
1pt win Bacardys in 3.30 Cheltenham at 9/1
1pt win Willie Boy in 4.10 Cheltenham at 20/1
1pt win Last Goodbye in 4.10 Cheltenham at 12/1
For details of advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record
The Sun Bets Stayers’ Hurdle looks the most wide open of all the Championship races this week and with Sam Spinner, Supasundae and Yanworth heading the betting at prices ranging from just 4/1 to 11/2 it seems the market agrees.
Sam Spinner deserves to be favourite as he has the best recent form at this trip but that’s not to say I think he’ll win. Indeed, as likeable as he is, I do think he has plenty to prove.
He has never finished out of the first two in his career, but things only really began to get serious for him this season when he turned up in what used to be the Fixed Brush at Haydock and routed them off a mark of 139.
A 16lb rise catapulted him into the big league and he announced himself at the very top level when winning the Long Walk Hurdle at Ascot in December. That was a very good performance, but I’m not sure beating L’Ami Serge, a below-par Unowhaitmeanharry and The Worlds End is enough evidence to back him at 4/1 for a Stayers’ Hurdle.
This is his toughest assignment yet and plenty of different form lines enter the fray. The leading one is the Yanworth and Supasundae form with the former beating the latter at Aintree last year. Supasundae is a fresher horse now then he was then, but the testing ground has gone against him considering his stamina is not a given over a soft-ground three miles.
Yanworth is interesting reverting from the bigger obstacles, but the same can be said about BACARDYS and at 9/1 (General, 10/1 Boylesports) he looks the one to be on.
It looks like his novice status as a chaser is being saved for another year following two defeats over fences, latterly when he was going perfectly well when coming down in a race won by Snow Falcon.
The reports from Closutton are that the fall hasn’t hindered his progress this season, though, with Patrick Mullins saying that he’s been schooling really well in the build-up to this.
Looking back at his win in the Tattersalls Ireland Champion Novice Hurdle last season he beat three Grade One winners in Finian’s Oscar, Death Duty and Let’s Dance and he did so by staying on strongly over 2m4f to get the job done right on the line.
This time last year he was badly hampered in the Neptune won by Willoughby Court which resulted in him being pulled up, but he was sent off 4/1 for that race which gives you some indication as to the regard in which he is held.
Testing ground is fine for him, he has the speed for shorter distances yet shapes as though he’ll improve for the step up in trip. It’s all about potential with him, but in a tricky race he’s taken to improve past the lot of them for Willie Mullins.
Earlier on BIGMARTRE looks to be the underestimated horse in the JLT Novices’ Chase at 16/1 (General).
The key thing here is there looks to be plenty of early pace with Invitation Only, Terrerfort, Kemboy and Shattered Love likely to be up there and that will suit Bigmartre as he used to be keen in his races.
He settles much better these days since he went chasing, so much so that he could well improve over the 2m4f - the first time he has tackled a distance as far over fences.
His dam stayed 2m5f and she in turn was related to stayers, while Bigmartre certainly wasn’t stopping when he got to within a short head of Duke Of Navan at Doncaster over two miles last time.
That he gave that experienced older horse 8lb and almost beat him was a big feather in his cap and it should stand him in good stead returned to novice company on Thursday.
His jumping has been a major asset in his fledgling fencing career and so it should be in this race, a contest that has produced its fair share of drama in its short history.
If Harry Bannister can keep him out of trouble Bigmartre looks like a novice chaser with the ability to have a big say and at 16/1 he’s good value.
In the Pertemps Final Gordon Elliott holds a very strong hand with Glenloe potentially well ahead of the assessor but at the prices I like the look of his second string DELTA WORK at 12/1 (General, 14/1 bet365).
He finished third behind awesome stablemate Samcro earlier in the season and then ran a good race in second in the Grade Two Guinness Novice Hurdle at Limerick over Christmas, a race that has produced four Festival winners in the last decade.
The five-year-old shaped like a real stayer that day and has done in two handicaps since, firstly when running fourth to Total Recall at the Dublin Racing Festival and then when qualifying for this race at Punchestown last time.
That was a good trial for this as he qualified easily despite being squeezed for room late on and the English handicapper has left him on his Irish mark of 139.
It looks a rating he can do some damage off now he faces a testing three miles off what looks sure to be a strong gallop and he could well give Cheltenham maestro Davy Russell another Festival success on the back of Presenting Percy on Wednesday.
Finally, WILLIE BOY makes plenty of appeal at 20/1 (Coral, 18s General) in the Brown Advisory & Merriebelle Stable Plate at 4.10.
His trainer Venetia Williams has won this race three times before and Willie Boy looks another likely type considering his rapid progress and ability to go well after a break.
Bought in 2016 after winning a point-to-point, Willie Boy did okay in three novice hurdles but really took off once unleashed over a fence.
A faller at the first at Sandown on his chasing debut this time last year, he won easily seven days later at Uttoxeter off a mark of 117 on what was effectively his first start for 80 days.
Another break of 236 days came and went before he won at Newbury off 132 and then he failed to back that up three weeks later at the same track.
Given 104 days off since then, it looks significant that he’s pitched in here and his big price compensates for the fact he’s relatively inexperienced. Hopefully he’ll keep out of trouble towards the front end.
If he does contribute to a strong gallop setting things up for the closers it could well be LAST GOODBYE that benefits and he's worth a final bet for the day at 12s (General).
Liz Doyle’s seven-year-old was really badly hampered in Tully East’s Close Brothers Novices’ Handicap Chase a year ago and did very well to finish fifth considering.
He’s been lightly raced since then but took off in first-time blinkers at Leopardstown last time when winning a valuable pot at the Dublin Racing Festival in the style of a good horse.
The third that day, Uncle Danny, a horse that was beaten 18 lengths, has subsequently come out and franked the form by running a close second at the same track five days ago and even a 14lb rise in the weights might not be enough to stop Doyle’s charge.
If the blinkers have the same effect he could go close and he is only 9lb higher than he was in the Close Brothers a year ago. He’ll relish a strong gallop and the ground with the one concern being that he won’t be fast enough off his new mark.
However, at 12/1, he’s worth the risk given how impressive he was last time.
Posted at 1700 GMT on 14/03/18.
Ben Linfoot's Value Bet aim: The Value Bet is designed to generate long-term profit by searching for overpriced horses in the feature weekend races and at the big Festivals in the UK. Running total: +361.14pts to advised stakes/prices (from inception of Value Bet column in January 2010 to current).
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