Ben Linfoot has three Value Bet selections for Saturday's action at Sandown and Musselburgh.
Recommended bets: Value Bet, February 3
1pt win Okotoks in 3.00 Sandown at 25/1
1pt win Southfield Theatre in 3.15 Musselburgh at 9/1
1pt win Shanroe Santos in 3.35 Sandown at 12/1
For details of advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record
Leighton Aspell showcased yet again why he is one of the most accomplished jockeys around when it comes to riding staying chasers when he steered home the mercurial Buywise in a veterans' chase at Sandown last month.
Back at the same track on Saturday, the two-time Grand National-winning jockey could be one to follow again as he rides the well-handicapped SHANROE SANTOS (12/1 General) in the Betfred Mobile Masters Handicap Chase (3.35).
Lucy Wadham’s nine-year-old stayed on strongly to win a similar race over Saturday’s course and distance in the March of last year and he achieved that from a handicap rating just 1lb lower than the one he runs off this weekend.
He hasn’t won since then and jumping errors are partially to blame for that, as he unseated his jockey at the second fence in an amateur riders' race here in December and he’s made mistakes in his last two runs despite finishing second on both occasions.
However, he’s undoubtedly handicapped to go in again when he puts in an error-free round and the return to Sandown, with Aspell on board, could be just the combination he needs to get his head back in front.
With Loose Chips and Yala Enki in the field it is anticipated this will be run at a sound gallop and that should help Aspell, who will probably employ patient tactics with this horse.
At these weights and at these prices he looks the bet, with Ballydine the main danger stepping up in trip to three miles over fences for the first time. He looks to have retained plenty of his old ability after a long absence, but hasn’t been missed in the market.
Earlier on the card Aspell gets the chance to ride Buywise into the winners’ enclosure again in the Betfred Heroes Handicap Hurdle, but he’s never looked as good over the smaller obstacles even if that is reflected in his handicap mark.
This looks too hot a race for him and it wouldn’t be a surprise if the progressive Melrose Boy went in again, or if Lanzarote fourth Topofthegame found the necessary improvement now he steps up in trip to three miles for the first time.
Those two are rightly disputing favouritism at around the 5/1 mark, but at the prices I want to take a chance on Fergal O’Brien’s OKOTOKS at 25/1 (General).
Owned by Malcolm Denmark, it’s nine years since AP McCoy lifted his horse Hennessy home in the same colours with an inspired ride in the bet365 Gold Cup at this venue.
Denmark hasn’t had many big-race wins since that day, but his Next Destination, trained by Willie Mullins, looks to be changing that this season and Okotoks is a very interesting horse in his own right at this slightly lower level.
Trained by Tony Martin until late last year, Denmark switched this eight-year-old to O’Brien and he was very well backed on his debut for the yard on December 15, where he went off 5/1 for a competitive handicap at Cheltenham.
Okotoks shaped very well that day, as he travelled into things nicely, looking likely to play a part in the finish coming down the hill where he traded at a low of just over 2/1 in-running on Betfair.
However, it was his first run since April last year and his absence caught up with him, a nine-length defeat in seventh place no disgrace at all as Paddy Brennan went easy on him up the hill once his chance had gone.
That run could well bring him on plenty and the form is really hot. The second, Remiluc, has won back at Cheltenham since, the fifth, Attest, franked the form with a win at Taunton and the sixth, Sea Wall, came out and won at Wincanton.
That bodes well for Okotoks, then, off the same handicap mark of 130. He’s looked one to watch in this sphere ever since he was fourth at Leopardstown on his handicap debut and he hasn’t had many chances to prove as much since then.
I’m not entirely sure he wants a testing three miles, but I can’t resist him at 25s on his second run for his new yard, particularly with Sean Bowen teaming up with O’Brien at Sandown.
The combination is zero from two so far after a second and a third, but both excel at the track. O’Brien has nine wins (including this race last year) from 26 runners at Sandown at 35 per cent, while Bowen is four from 21 here at 19 per cent, including two bet365 Gold Cups.
Finally, talking of jockey-trainer combinations, it could be worth chancing Bryony Frost and Paul Nicholls to have another big Saturday winner together when she rides SOUTHFIELD THEATRE (9/1 William Hill) for the first time in the bet365 Edinburgh National Handicap Chase up at Musselburgh.
This horse has dramatically declined since his days as a 154-rated Grade One novice, but there have been glimmers of hope this season, particularly when he was fourth in the Badger Ales off a mark of 150 and then when third at Cheltenham, a place behind the aforementioned Shanroe Santos, off 148 in December.
Pulled up back at Cheltenham on heavy ground since then, the handicapper has given him a massive chance dropping him to 139. That’s a drop of 11lb in just four runs since the Badger Ales and now Frost takes over with her mighty useful 5lb claim.
Nicholls adds a tongue-tie as well and the better ground is another reason to expect a sharp improvement in form. If Frost can get him jumping, Southfield Theatre is handicapped to win this well prices around the 9/1 mark look worth snapping up despite his patchy profile.
Posted at 1700 GMT on 02/02/18.
Ben Linfoot's Value Bet aim: The Value Bet is designed to generate long-term profit by searching for overpriced horses in the feature weekend races and at the big Festivals in the UK. Running total: +363.89pts to advised stakes/prices (from inception of Value Bet column in January 2010 to current).
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