Ben Linfoot seeks out the best Value Bet selections on day three of the Welcome To Yorkshire Ebor Festival with Beloved tipped to go close at 3.00.
Recommended Bets: Value Bet York Day 3
1pt win Amazing Red in 1.55 York at 14/1 - has more to offer since being gelded and 4lb rise for latest win looks lenient
1pt win Speedo Boy in 1.55 York at 20/1 - could improve significantly now stepped up in trip judging by recent runs and pedigree and boasts a likeable overall profile
1pt win So Beloved in 3.00 York at 10/1 - the reapplication of the hood has reinvigorated this horse and he loves York, including when second in this race last year
1pt win Rusumaat in 3.00 York at 14/1 - improving three-year-old that could get the run of things up front and if that is the case he's a very tough horse to pass
Click here for transparent tipping record
It’s the clash of the week in the Coolmore Nunthorpe Stakes as the American rocket Lady Aurelia takes on our own improving speedster Battaash and it’s very difficult to envisage a situation where one of them doesn’t win.
So often when races are billed as matches the apparent third-best horse sneaks in and spoils the party, but Lady Aurelia and Battaash look far enough ahead of Marsha on recent evidence to believe Sir Mark Prescott’s horse has a huge task to overturn this summer’s form.
If both of them run to their best we are in for a real treat and we could see the best five-furlong sprint in a long while, but, while the chances of them both underperforming seem unlikely, it wouldn’t be a surprise if one of them didn’t quite run up to form.
Whether that’s because of the ground, the track, luck in-running, we’ll have to see, I just hope that’s not the case and we have a fair old scrap, as we could witness something special. It’s very hard to split them, but I’d just favour Battaash following that scintillating effort at Goodwood.
Away from the Nunthorpe the action is top notch and the Sky Bet City Of York Stakes has attracted a field of 19 as they do battle for £175,000.
It’s the best Group Three I can remember and it’s lured in some regular Group One performers including Suedois, who would be tough to beat on his best form.
He was a bit keen, though, over seven furlongs at Goodwood last time and his best form is over six, so there could well be some mileage in taking him on and I do like the 10/1 available (Ladbrokes, Coral) about his stablemate SO BELOVED.
The seven-year-old Dansili gelding loves York and was second in this race last year, and, while his form dipped a little at the start of the season the reapplication of the hood seems to have got him right back to his best.
Second to Jersey Stakes runner-up Spirit Of Valor in the Minstrel Stakes at the Curragh two starts ago, he looked likely to improve on that form at Goodwood last time until running into trouble in the closing stages.
Arguably an unlucky loser, he’s clearly in great heart and back at York it would be no surprise if he can get his head back in front for the first time since the May of last year.
Adam Kirby takes the ride again after Goodwood and he’s right in the mix on ratings. The big field should help him settle and, if he gets the breaks this time, he can go close.
The one thing that is nagging away at me is the early pace as, while there’s a fair few prominent racers in the field there aren’t that many frontrunners and I just wonder if RUSUMAAT (16/1 Betfair Sportsbook, 14s General) will get the run of things from the front end.
He’s an improving three-year-old that stays further than seven and, now rated 109, he won’t have to find too much more to take this.
Mark Johnston’s horse is very tough and resolute and he’s incredibly difficult to pass when allowed to bowl along, as Remarkable found out at Newbury last time.
There is a good chance he will find himself in a great position at the head of affairs a couple of furlongs from home, so he looks a big price to repel them all in the closing stages.
Finally, the Sky Bet First Race Special Handicap (1.55) that opens the card features a trio of three-year-olds and there have only been two of that vintage line up in the previous five renewals combined.
They get a 9lb weight-for-age allowance from the older horses and both Londinium and Game Starter come into this in really good form, so it’s no surprise they are towards the head of the betting.
However, I like the other one, SPEEDO BOY, who looks vastly underestimated at 20/1 (William Hill, 16s General) for Ian Williams.
This horse has some really good form to his name having won a Listed contest in France at the start of the season, while he chased home Permian at Newmarket with Khalidi in behind and he was far from disgraced in the Hampton Court Stakes at Royal Ascot when sixth behind Benbatl.
Last time out, at Newmarket and on handicap debut, he was outpaced but stayed on really nicely in the closing stages under hands and heels riding to finish a four-length seventh.
All of the above was over 10 furlongs and on each occasion he shaped like he wanted further. On pedigree he does, as his dam was a mile and a half winner related to stayers, and the step up to 12 furlongs could unlock significant improvement.
With Silvestre de Sousa back in the saddle everything is in place for a big run and he should be backed at 20s.
However, I also want AMAZING RED on side at 14/1 (General) as well.
This half-brother to Red Cadeaux showed plenty of early promise but then disappointed in handicaps at the start of this season, only to benefit from being gelded at Newmarket last time.
He’s value for more than the winning distance of less than a length that day, as he made his challenge down what looked an unfavoured part of the track and the soft ground wouldn’t have been ideal either.
With those factors in mind the 4lb hike in the weights looks lenient and I’m still of the belief he’s going to end up much better than a 90-rated horse.
Perhaps he can continue along the road to bigger and better things on Friday.
Sky Bet price promise
Click here to place your bets with Sky Bet
Sky Bet are offering EXTRA VALUE to followers of the Sporting Life Value Bet column with guaranteed advertised prices for at least 15 minutes from 1800 BST on the day of publication.
Ben Linfoot's Value Bet aim: The Value Bet is designed to generate long-term profit by searching for overpriced horses in the feature weekend races and at the big Festivals in the UK. Running total: +380.39pts to advised stakes/prices (from inception of Value Bet column in January 2010 to current).
Posted at 1700 BST on 24/08/17.
