Ben Linfoot Value Bet: Tips for day one of the Newmarket July Festival

Recommended Bets: Value Bet

1pt win Poet’s Society 3.00 Newmarket at 18/1

1pt win Mostahel 3.00 Newmarket at 12/1

1pt win Algometer 3.35 Newmarket at 11/1

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The Princess Of Wales’s Arqana Racing Club Stakes headlines day one of the Moet & Chandon July Festival at Newmarket on Thursday and Frontiersman is the one to beat.

Godolphin’s four-year-old is progressive over a mile and a half and this Group Two represents a slight drop in class following an excellent second to Highland Reel in the Group One Coronation Cup at Epsom last time.

That’s the best form on offer in this race and that he was supplemented for it suggests he was thriving at home following his comfortable victory in handicap company on the Rowley Mile course in May.

It’s no surprises that he’s favourite, but 13/8 does look a little skinny considering he hardly towers above his rivals in terms of form.

Poet’s Word is similarly progressive and he posted a career best when beaten a neck in the Group Three Huxley Stakes at Chester’s May meeting, while Wings Of Desire made a more than satisfactory comeback in the Hardwicke Stakes at Royal Ascot as well.

Those two are just behind Frontiersman in the betting at around the 4/1 mark, with Hawkbill double their price at 8/1. The Godolphin second string is arguably a big price on his very best form, but his very best form is over 10 furlongs and all of his good form has come on soft ground.

I used to think ALGOMETER needed some cut in the ground to perform to his best too, but after a really encouraging reappearance on good to firm at Sandown I’m not so sure.

That second to Autocratic in the Brigadier Gerard Stakes over an inadequate 10 furlongs was the best effort of his career so far and that it came over that distance on the first start of his campaign suggests there is more to come.

He showed his talents as a middle distance performer several times last year as a three-year-old, not least when he beat his elders - including Dartmouth - in a Group Three at Newbury last September.

Judging by his Sandown effort he’s ready to step up to another level from that sort of form and he doesn’t have much to find at all with those above him in the market.

It’s also interesting that Andrea Atzeni rides him for the first time. The Italian jockey has an excellent strike-rate when teaming up with David Simcock, winning 11 times from 51 rides at 22 per cent for the last five years.

At 11/1 (bet365, Betfred, Paddy Power, 10s generally), it’s worth a bet he can improve that percentage further aboard Algometer in Thursday’s feature.

The rest of the card is a good one and the best betting race is the bet365 Handicap over six furlongs at 3.00. Confined to three-year-olds, this race has in-form sprinters, classy horses dropping back in trip and some with reputations to salvage.

Working it all out isn’t easy, but it seems to me the 18/1 (Coral, 16s generally) about POET’S SOCIETY is the best value in the race.

The Mark Johnston-trained colt has had plenty of racing, as you would expect, but he still seems to be getting better and he’s now putting all that experience to good use.

He showed great tenacity to battle back and win over five furlongs on the July Course last time, the uphill finish clearly suiting. On that showing he’s going to relish stepping back up to six and the handicapper could do little more than put him up 3lb given the tightness of the finish.

On his previous start he ran in the Macmillan Charity Handicap Sprint at York, a race that Dancing Star was second in last year before winning this contest at Newmarket.

It’s going to be a key race again with Golden Apollo, Justanotherbottle, Poet’s Society, Ekhtiyaar, Perfect Angel, Private Matter and Danielsflyer all reopposing, but it’s Johnston’s colt that appeals the most out of that lot.

He was slightly outpaced at a crucial stage on the Knavesmire after initially racing prominently, but he finished his race off really well and he was strong in the final furlong to take a close fourth.

Given how well he battled at Newmarket last time this track clearly suits and he’s drawn close to the pacey Justanotherbottle, again towards the far side.

Declan Carroll’s sprinter shouldn’t be underestimated despite a 6lb rise in the weights for his Doncaster win, either, but I’m just a bit concerned about him getting home on this track.

Instead I’d rather split stakes on Poet’s Society and MOSTAHEL who looks worth backing at 12/1 (General) as well.

Richard Hannon’s horse is massively unexposed over sprinting trips and in general after just four starts, and he dropped back from a mile to win over six at Wolverhampton impressively before his handicap debut on the Rowley Mile last time.

That was also over six and he travelled really nicely before struggling in The Dip, losing any chance of winning before getting organised and finishing his race nicely.

Beaten just over two lengths in third at the line, he was left unchanged on a mark of 93 and it looks one this full-brother to Equiano could fully exploit following a good break of 68 days.

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Ben Linfoot's Value Bet aim: The Value Bet is designed to generate long-term profit by searching for overpriced horses in the feature weekend races and at the big Festivals in the UK. Running total: +377.99pts to advised stakes/prices (from inception of Value Bet column in January 2010 to current). 

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Posted at 1700 BST on 12/07/17.