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Value Bet: Ben Linfoot racing preview and free tips for Doncaster St Leger meeting, day two
Our racing expert Ben Linfoot has four selections for day two of Doncaster's St Leger Festival on Thursday including a John Gosden-trained horse in the May Hill.
Recommended Bets: Thursday, September 12
1pt win Ultra Violet in 2.10 Doncaster at 14/1
1pt win Incognito in 2.10 Doncaster at 18/1
1pt win Glasvegas in 3.15 Doncaster at 7/1
1pt win Run Wild in 3.45 Doncaster at 8/1
For details of advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record
The Dfs Park Hill Stakes takes centre stage on day two of the St Leger meeting at Doncaster on Thursday, with John Gosden's Enbihaar a hot favourite to defy a double penalty for her Group Two victories at Haydock and Goodwood this summer.
She was tremendous when giving weight and a beating to a bunch of good three-year-olds at Goodwood and she’ll attempt to do the same thing again here, being the sole four-year-old against seven rivals from the Classic vintage.
If she's in the same nick as she was last time out she'll win, but at 5/4 her presence makes it a no-bet race for me, as I’m not really in any rush to take her on.
Like most John Gosden-trained horses, she hasn’t been missed by the market, but I do think there’s a bit of juice in the price of his only other runner at Doncaster on Thursday with RUN WILD available at 8/1 (General) in the William Hill May Hill Stakes (3.45).
Likely favourite Cloak Of Spirits looked very good at Ascot, but she has only had the one run and experience could be vital on what is expected to be another windy day on Town Moor.
In any case, Run Wild doesn't have an awful lot to find with her judging by her own impressive success at Kempton on her third start last time out, where she thrived for the removal of a hood on her first go over a mile.
The daughter of Amaron stretched clear to win by six lengths that day from Tanita, Virgin Snow and National Treasure, three fillies who are entered in the Rockfel Stakes, Fillies’ Mile or both.
It looks good form and Gosden had plenty of options for this race given he’s had five two-year-old fillies that have won over seven furlongs or a mile in recent weeks.
She's one of several fillies in here that are open to plenty of improvement but, considering her trainer, she looks the bet at 8/1.
Earlier on the card the British Stallion Studs EBF ‘Carrie Red’ Fillies’ Nursery kicks off the card at 2.10 and Stylistique looks the likely favourite in this contest following her good run in Group Three company last time out.
An opening mark of 94 means she faces a tough task giving weight to everything here, though, and I’d rather split my stakes on a couple of interesting fillies at bigger prices.
Firstly ULTRA VIOLET strikes me as potentially the best handicapped filly in the field and she's worth backing at 14/1 (General).
A mark of 89 looks lenient judging by her remarkable eight-length win on debut where she beat subsequent winner Game And Set with ease following a strong finish.
Sent off the 11/4 favourite for the Group Three Sweet Solera Stakes after that, she pulled way too hard to do herself justice and Ed Vaughan dropped her right back to five furlongs at Ripon last time in a bid to teach her to settle better.
She was outpaced on a tricky track, but at least she did settle better and will have learnt plenty while, unusually, the handicapper hasn’t rated her on her best form but at a slightly lower level than that.
With Oisin Murphy booked in a bigger field than she’s used to for her nursery debut, she will be a major threat if rediscovering the form of her debut success and at 14s it’s worth chancing this Cheveley Park entry can do just that.
The second filly I like in the race is Mick Channon’s INCOGNITO at 18/1 (Ladbrokes, Coral).
A developing trend in this race is that the last six winners had all raced over seven furlongs prior to this six-and-a-half furlong contest and I like that Incognito has racked up a hatful of experience over that trip.
On her runs on the July Course at Newmarket, where she was a close-up fourth to Light Blush and second to Ananya, she looks potentially well treated off 74 and she's had a few excuses in subsequent runs, particularly at Goodwood and Chelmsford.
At Goodwood she was checked in her run at a crucial point, while at Chelmsford she raced three wide and only went down half-a-length in a tight finish with Hashtagmetoo.
This long straight will likely play to her strengths and the in-form Hollie Doyle is a good jockey booking for this type of filly, as she can wind her up early and time a withering late run.
Finally, GLASVEGAS looks the bet of the day at 7/1 (General) in the Weatherbys Racing Bank £300,000 2-Y-O Stakes over six-and-a-half furlongs at 3.15.
The Zebedee colt came out of what is an often-hot Hamilton race with victory despite adversity in May and he was a tad unlucky not to win the Windsor Castle Stakes at Royal Ascot after that.
Slightly outpaced two furlongs out, he stormed home after that for third and was gaining on the front two in the closing stages, strongly suggesting a step up in trip would suit.
He's got plenty of stamina in his pedigree and his exploits over five furlongs earlier in the season owe much to his talent which looks a cut above several of his Doncaster rivals.
Indeed, a rating of 99 makes him officially the third best horse in the race, and with the weights decided by sales price he gets weight from everything including, significantly, 10lb from the two horses that are rated 2lb and 6lb better than him.
He'd be favourite if he was from an A-list yard but the Keith Dalgleish stable remain in really good form and the jockey booking of David Egan is a good one.
Posted at 1700 BST on 11/09/19.
Ben Linfoot's Value Bet aim: The Value Bet is designed to generate long-term profit by searching for overpriced horses in the feature weekend races and at the big Festivals in the UK and Ireland. Running total: +364.19pts to advised stakes/prices (from inception of Value Bet column in January 2010 to current).
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