Value Bet: Ben Linfoot's free racing tips for Leopardstown and Sandown

Recommended Bets: Saturday, February 1

Sky Bet are offering EXTRA VALUE to followers of the Sporting Life Value Bet column with exclusive guaranteed advertised prices for at least an hour from the time of publication 5pm-6pm max £25). Just make sure you're logged in and click on the links to automatically populate your betslip...

1pt win Dan McGrue in 3.00 Sandown at 14/1

1pt win Grand Morning in 3.00 Sandown at 16/1

1pt win Buildmeupbuttercup in 3.45 Leopardstown at 8/1

1pt win Daybreak Boy in 3.45 Leopardstown at 25/1

For details of advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record

Most of the high quality action is at the Dublin Racing Festival at Leopardstown on Saturday but that hasn’t stopped Willie Mullins from trying to plunder the sole Grade One in Britain this weekend with Laurina coming over for the Scilly Isles Novices’ Chase at Sandown.

Mullins’ pre-Cheltenham forays to UK shores are limited these days but he does like to pick off the odd Sandown prize and he has a fantastic record at the track.

Overall it’s seven wins from 24 runners at 29 per cent, but when you narrow the months down to January and February he’s four from seven (Gitane Du Berlais, Uranna, Yorkhill and Laurina herself were the winners, all in the last five years).

So, for all that it’s tempting to take Laurina on following her no-show last time, the very fact that Mullins brings her to Sandown is a sign that all is well with her now. Indeed, given that she gets 7lb from her rivals and is the best horse by some way on her best form, she's difficult to oppose.

I’m not in any rush to bet against her winning and that’s a bit of a theme for Saturday. I like plenty of the fancied horses at Leopardstown in the Grade Ones for reasons you can read about here, and I’m not even prepared to take on Classic Ben in the Betway Masters Handicap Chase that closes the Sandown card.

His trainer, Stuart Edmunds, is three from four at Sandown in January and February with one of those victories coming from Classic Ben himself in this race last year. Conditions are fine for him and, off just a 1lb higher mark, he fully deserves his status as the 5/1 jolly.

The race I do want to have a go at is the Betway Heroes Handicap Hurdle at 3.00, over just about three miles in heavy ground up the Sandown hill. It’s going to take some getting home and I want a horse that is proven in really testing conditions.

The one that sticks out is Paul Nicholls’ DAN McGRUE at 14/1 (General).

Nicholls has a terrific record in this contest, winning four of the last 10 renewals, and he must’ve targeted the race for this horse from some way off given he comes in here on the back of a two-month break.

You’re nearly always guaranteed heavy ground at Sandown at this time of year and that’s exactly what this horse wants.

A proven mud-lover as a novice hurdler, his career-best effort came on heavy ground two starts ago when he won off a mark of 130 at Plumpton in a red-hot race that has worked out really well.

The second, Acey Milan, was subsequently second in a deep race at Haydock, the third, Theo’s Charm, won at Uttoxeter last week, the fourth, Mr Pumblechook, was second at Newbury, the fifth, Air Horse One, won at Ffos Las, the sixth, Not Never, won at Taunton and the seventh, Debestyman, would probably have won the Lanzarote but for unseating his rider at the last.

Dan McGrue was worthy of a 7lb rise for that win, then, and he’s forgiven his subsequent poor run at Newbury on unsuitably faster ground.

He is unproven over three miles under Rules, but he is a point-to-point winner and related to stayers, so the extra distance could conceivably bring about more improvement in him.

Considering the form of his heavy ground win and his trainer’s record in this contest, he’s worth chancing at 14s.

The other one to be on is GRAND MORNING at 16/1 (General) for Lucinda Russell and Derek Fox.

JP McManus' horse was three from three on heavy ground as a novice hurdler and the third of those victories came over 2m6f in novice handicap company off a mark of 120.

Fast-forward two years and he’s only 7lb higher thanks to a stop-start career in which he’s had just four subsequent starts, three of which were over fences.

However, he proved on his return over hurdles last time, behind Portrush Ted, that he retains all of his ability and a 2lb nudge up the weights to 127 was fair enough.

It was an effort that hinted he’s got a handicap hurdle in him off this sort of mark and with conditions in his favour he’s worth a go from towards the bottom of the weights.

Build the bank with Mullins mare

The best betting race on day one of the superb Dublin Racing Festival is the valuable Ladbrokes Hurdle at 3.45 with Mullins’ Unexcepted heading the betting for the 23-runner handicap.

He could be chucked in off 137 as he’s only had three starts and was sent off 8/11 to beat Easywork at Limerick over 2m4f last time out.

Okay, he finished 22 lengths off that horse in second, but he travelled well and the drop back in trip in handicap company could see him come home in front.

However, this is a tough race for one so inexperienced and the value could lie with the more handicap-hardened horses that have come out of traditionally strong trials for this race.

Unexcepted’s stablemate BUILDMEUPBUTTERCUP (8/1 bet365, William Hill & BetVictor) was second in the Grade A handicap hurdle at Fairyhouse on Hatton’s Grace day, a race that has produced the winner of the Ladbrokes Hurdle in four of the last 10 years.

Citizenship, Katie T, Henry Higgins and Off You Go were all beaten in the Fairyhouse contest before winning here and Buildmeupbuttercup has strong claims of following in their hoofprints.

She’s built up her experience on the Flat and in bumpers, while this will be her seventh start over timber, too. However, it’s just her third start in a handicap hurdle and, even up 4lb for Fairyhouse, she looks handicapped to win a big pot.

At Fairyhouse she absolutely tanked through the race from off the pace and may well have won if she had jumped the second last better. In fact, she made a few mistakes but still threw down a stern challenge and she can improve markedly on that effort if cutting out the errors.

Paul Townend keeps the faith even though he could’ve ridden Tiger Tap Tap and his mount looks set to lay down a bold challenge.

Finally, I also want to be on Henry de Bromhead’s DAYBREAK BOY in the same race at 25/1 (Ladbrokes).

He also comes out of a traditionally strong trial for this race having finished second in the two-mile handicap at this course over Christmas last time out.

Both Citizenship and Ice Cold Soul were beaten in that race before winning here in recent years and the thing I liked about Daybreak Boy’s performance was his much-improved effort in cheekpieces.

They helped him travel over the trip and that he’s proven over much further could be a positive in this type of race.

Rachael Blackmore, who could be riding the crest of a wave following earlier rides on A Plus Tard, Notebook and Honeysuckle, is back on board and she is two from four on the horse.

She can ride this horse relatively aggressively and, judging by his last effort over the course and distance, he’s going to keep finding for pressure. He looks a big price.

Posted at 1700 GMT on 31/01/20

Ben Linfoot's Value Bet aim: The Value Bet is designed to generate long-term profit by searching for overpriced horses in the feature weekend races and at the big Festivals in the UK and Ireland. Running total: +360.39pts to advised stakes/prices (from inception of Value Bet column in January 2010 to current).

Click here for the full Value Bet record

Sky Bet Guarantee

Sky Bet are offering EXTRA VALUE to followers of the Sporting Life Value Bet column with exclusive guaranteed advertised prices* for at least an hour from the time of publication 5pm-6pm max £25). Just make sure you're logged in and click on the links to automatically populate your betslip (*does not include Sky Bet Money Back As Cash races)...

Related horse racing links

• Sky Bet's racing odds
• Free horse racing betting tips
• All today's racecards
• Today's fast results
• Today's full results
• Non-runners
• Today's Goings
• Today's Naps Table

Responsible gambling

We are committed in our support of responsible gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.

Sky Bet's responsible gambling tools are detailed here and if you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline on 0808 8020 133, or visit begambleaware.org