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Ben Linfoot's Value Bet: Free racing tips for Newcastle and York
Ben Linfoot's Value Bet has had 8/1, 10/1, 10/1, 14/1 and 18/1 winners in June - don't miss his selections for Newcastle and York on Saturday on Northumberland Plate day.
Recommended Bets: Saturday, June 29
1pt win Nick Vedder in 1.50 Newcastle at 10/1
1pt win Von Blucher in 1.50 Newcastle at 20/1
1pt win Savalas in 2.45 York at 11/1
1pt win Dubawi Fifty in 3.35 Newcastle at 12/1
1pt win Time To Study in 3.35 Newcastle at 14/1
For details of advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record
Roger Varian goes for consecutive big Saturday handicap plunges following Cape Byron’s Wokingham success as Gibbs Hill has been hugely popular in the betting ahead of Saturday’s Betfair Exchange Northumberland Plate at Newcastle (3.35).
Backed into 7/2 favourite from 20/1 in the week, Gibbs Hill has a 724-day absence to overcome and steps up in trip by half a mile as well.
The handicapper hasn’t cut him any slack, either, despite his absence, so while he’s obviously respected he has to be one to take on at his current odds.
Stratum has assumed the position as second favourite following Withhold’s withdrawal, but he too looks skinny enough at around 7/1 considering he went right off the boil after his luckless run in the Sky Bet Ebor last year.
It’s 10/1 the field bar those two and I’m going to take a couple against the market leaders starting with Karen McLintock’s DUBAWI FIFTY (12/1 General).
He has an absence of his own to overcome for local handler McLintock, but not quite as much as the favourite. It’s 375 days since he got reeled in by Lagostovegas in the 2018 Ascot Stakes, the son of Dubawi having led all the way until he had to settle for second in the final 100 yards.
That was over 2m4f and was further evidence that he’s a dour stayer, following on from his good fourth in last year’s Chester Cup.
He seems to be at his best racing prominently over two miles and he has a good record on the Newcastle Tapeta, too, having won at the track twice and having finished second twice as well.
Off since last June because of a soft tissue injury, he’s been given plenty of time to recover and McLintock reported she was delighted with him when he came back from Jason Maguire’s in the spring.
A prep run may well have been ideal, but McLintock has a good record when running horses off a break, winning four from 26 at 15 per cent with horses that haven’t run for 300 or more days, including Grey Mist who won at Newcastle over two miles in December.
The absence isn’t really a concern, then, and there’s every chance he’ll get this race run to suit as Luke Morris should be able to slot into a prominent position from stall eight and track the pace, or even make the running himself.
Red Galileo and Proschema were also on the shortlist, but TIME TO STUDY’S recent Royal Ascot third was a clear indication that he’s back in good form and he’s also worth backing at 14/1 (General).
Rated 108 when sixth in this race last year, he races off a 12lb lower mark on Saturday and he shaped like it was a mark he could take advantage of soon when he was third in the Ascot Stakes 11 days ago.
He looked the likely winner when hitting the front over a furlong out, but gave way to stablemate The Grand Visir and Willie Mullins' Buildmeupbuttercup in the closing stages.
Still, that was his best effort in a year, on just his third run for Ian Williams, and there is likely more to come now he’s dropped to such a competitive mark.
A wide draw in 15 doesn’t look an inconvenience judging by the early renewals of this contest (as well as the consolation races) on the Tapeta and, with the excellent Kerrin McEvoy booked, a big run is expected
Earlier on at Newcastle Air Raid is favourite for the Betfair Exchange Handicap (1.50) over six furlongs but he looks worth taking on given he’s run two poor races from two goes at Gosforth Park.
He is a pace angle, though, along with Brian The Snail, Staxton and Deep Intrigue, and if they do go half a stride quicker than ideal then hold-up horse NICK VEDDER comes right into the equation at 10/1 (General).
The Rip Van Winkle gelding has never finished out of the first three in 11 goes at Newcastle and he won here by a neck off a mark of 80 the last time he was at the track.
After a couple of good runs elsewhere he’s back at Newcastle off just a 3lb higher mark and, though this is a step up in grade, he’s interesting off a low weight at his favourite venue.
Michael Wigham has booked Andrea Atzeni for the ride and that’s significant, as the duo have an excellent strike-rate together when teaming up on the all-weather (12 wins from 51 at 23.53 per cent).
I’m also drawn to the claims of another lightweight in the race and Rebecca Menzies’ VON BLUCHER is worth backing for the same contest at 20/1 (General) as well.
This horse has won a handicap at Newcastle off a mark of 96, so he’s immediately of interest running off a 12lb lower mark of 84 and he’s unexposed on all the all-weather surfaces, winning two races from just four goes on artificial tracks.
His recent form figures on turf leave a lot to be desired, but his latest run at Redcar wasn’t actually too bad and he was only beaten three-and-three-quarter lengths at the line after looking like he was getting into a challenging position quite nicely at one point.
Tinkering one or two things could well amount to a huge upturn in fortunes and as well as the surface switch Menzies has reached for the first-time blinkers.
He was second the first time cheekpieces were applied, so the new headgear could perk him up sufficiently and he stays further, too, so is another one that would enjoy a pace collapse.
Finally, Kevin Ryan’s SAVALAS (11/1 General) looks well handicapped on his York form in the Sun Racing Handicap at 2.45.
The best run of his career came on the Knavesmire just over a year ago when he was a neck second to Encrypted off a mark of 98 and his best run this season was his four-length fourth to Soldier’s Minute at the Dante meeting off 95.
Down to a mark of 92 now, he’s clearly well treated and his poor run at Haydock last time can be easily excused because of the heavy ground.
Drawn centrally around the pace, it’s notable he seems to excel in big-field sprints at York and Ryan has had great success with horses of this type for owner Angie Bailey down the years.
Ben Linfoot's Value Bet aim: The Value Bet is designed to generate long-term profit by searching for overpriced horses in the feature weekend races and at the big Festivals in the UK and Ireland. Running total: +382.19pts to advised stakes/prices (from inception of Value Bet column in January 2010 to current).
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Posted at 1700 BST on 28/06/19.