Ben Linfoot seeks out the value on the opening day of the Flat season as the Lincoln takes centre stage at Doncaster, while he also has a few selections at Kempton.
Recommended Bets: Saturday March 30
1pt win Ripp Orf in 3.35 Doncaster at 14/1
1pt win Rampant Lion in 2.25 Doncaster at 9/1
1pt win Victory Bond in 2.05 Kempton at 14/1
1pt win Moon Trouble in 2.40 Kempton at 14/1
For details of advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record
Auxerre has been at the head of the Unibet Lincoln market for a long time and with the drying ground at Doncaster in his favour he has obvious claims of landing more big-race glory for his red-hot trainer Charlie Appleby.
The problem is he’s very short at around 4/1 for a horse that has had just four career starts and he could well end up running a big race in defeat having been done for experience.
With the ground set to be riding at least ‘Good’ after a couple of warm days some horses don’t look to have optimum underfoot conditions and you could arguably file Kynren, Saltonstall, Humbert, South Seas, Third Time Lucky, Aquarium and Chatez into that category.
With that in mind it’s no surprise to see plenty of money for Alan King’s Beringer, who will love the drying ground, and he was backed into 9/1 from 16/1 on Friday.
He was all set to be the selection before the plunge, as he should thrive dropped in trip to a mile for the first time in a handicap judging by how strongly he travelled over 10 furlongs last season.
His York form with Wissahickon looks strong and Sea The Stars progeny are five from nine (56 per cent) in mile handicaps with field sizes of 12 or more, Bless Him’s Britannia win and Karawaan’s recent Irish Lincoln victory two high-profile examples.
I like him, but the price has gone unfortunately and I’d rather back David Elsworth’s RIPP ORF at 14/1 (Ladbrokes, 12s General).
He had a busy 2018 but amassed a fine record, winning four times, including two highly competitive handicaps on Ascot’s straight course where he proved a big field suits him perfectly.
Unexposed over a mile, he gets the trip well and the drying ground looks in his favour while it looks a slight negative for those aforementioned rivals, many of whom are above Ripp Orf in the betting.
The subject of good homework reports this week, there could be plenty more to come from him as a five-year-old and his half-brother, Speculative Bid, improved with age as well as having an excellent record at Doncaster.
Ripp Orf has experienced Town Moor just the once, when finishing midfield in a claiming handicap at the end of last season, but he looked to be at a disadvantage racing on the far side that day and is easily forgiven the defeat at the end of a long year.
Given his love for straight course big field handicaps, he’s the one that looks to have been neglected a little in the market following gambles on plenty of others.
Earlier on the consolation race, the Unibet Spring Mile Handicap (2.25), has plenty of unexposed four-year-olds to pick from but there’s lots to like about William Jarvis’ RAMPANT LION at 9/1 (William Hill, Bet Victor).
This horse has improved since switching yards and the application of cheekpieces, while the best run of his career came last time at Kempton where he was a cosy winner over Poetic Force, a horse that franked the form with a win of his own at the Sunbury venue on Wednesday.
He is 1lb wrong under a 5lb penalty but that’s neither here nor there and there’s no reason why he can’t translate his improvement back to the turf.
Jarvis has booked Silvestre de Sousa and the pair have a good record when teaming up (eight wins from 37 at 22 per cent) while this horse looks versatile regarding ground conditions.
He was barely shown the whip last time and showed some gears to get to the front off a pace that wasn’t too strong, something that could well hold him in good stead on Saturday.
WATCH: Sporting Life Racing Daily for Saturday March 30
There’s good racing over at Kempton as well and Mark Johnston’s Matterhorn goes for a six-timer in the Listed Matchbook Magnolia Stakes at 2.05.
He’s obviously in great heart but I do think he was slightly flattered by his latest win and I’m not sure he has as much in hand as the official ratings and betting suggests.
With that in mind I’m happy to take him on and the 14/1 (General) about VICTORY BOND looks too big to ignore.
His trainer William Haggas has a superb record in this race having won it three times in the last nine years and this horse, rated 107 at best, has dropped a few pounds recently on the back of a couple of below-par runs over a mile.
However, previous to those he was highly progressive over 10 furlongs on the all-weather and his form figures with those factors in play are 1-2-1-2-1.
This time last year he beat Master The World in the Easter Classic and that was the last time he tackled 10 furlongs, so he could improve significantly back up in trip with a recent run under his belt.
He’s berthed well in stall two and could well get a nice tow into things from the favourite, while the booking of Richard Kingscote looks a good one and he is 10 from 29 at 34 per cent for Haggas.
Finally, MOON TROUBLE (14/1 General) looks like another shrewd acquisition for The Horse Watchers and Mick Appleby and he’s worth chancing on his stable debut in the Better Odds With Matchbook Handicap (2.40).
Appleby’s prowess with new recruits is excellent and he’s currently 61 from 348 at 18 per cent with stable newcomers that have run before, while that percentage rises to over 20 per cent when specifically looking at handicaps.
Drilling further down he’s five from 15 with stable newcomers in six-furlong handicaps thanks to Case Key, Lincoln Park, Moonraker, Scarborough and Hakam, the latter winning this race two years ago when an established Appleby stalwart.
Moon Trouble was bought for 38,000gns from France and on several bits of French form he looks well treated off 92, not least his Listed third at Maisons-Laffitte, his Longchamp Group Three sixth behind City Light and then a near five-length defeat to Signs Of Blessing in September.
As for his chances on the Kempton Polytrack, he’s by Lope De Vega whose progeny have a near 18 per cent strike-rate on the all-weather, while he won and finished second on the Deauville Polytrack from just three goes.
Last April he won off a 199-day break at Longchamp, so his absence of 178 days can be viewed as a positive as well, and he’s well worth a roll of the dice with both the handicapper and bookies taking a bigger-than-expected risk.
Ben Linfoot's Value Bet aim: The Value Bet is designed to generate long-term profit by searching for overpriced horses in the feature weekend races and at the big Festivals in the UK and Ireland. Running total: +339.29pts to advised stakes/prices (from inception of Value Bet column in January 2010 to current).
Click here for the full Value Bet record
Posted at 1700 GMT on 29/03/19.
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