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Ben Linfoot Value Bet: Free betting tips for Doncaster's St Leger festival day four and Chester
Ben Linfoot seeks out the best Value Bet selections on St Leger day and he reckons Frankie Dettori could have a superb afternoon including on an outsider in the Park Stakes.
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1pt e.w. Wentworth Falls in 1.50 Doncaster at 20/1
1pt win Baydar in 2.05 Chester at 8/1
1pt win Unfortunately in 2.25 Doncaster at 16/1
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Lah Ti Dar’s presence in the William Hill St Leger at Doncaster on Saturday is great for the race but it’s now less appealing to chance one at a price each-way in the final Classic of the season.
I was fully prepared to take on Kew Gardens at 5/4 with both Raymond Tusk and Maid Up pencilled in as each-way possibilities, but Lah Ti Dar looks a potential superstar and she could well be very hard to beat.
It’ll certainly be no surprise to see Frankie Dettori’s beaming smile on Town Moor once again and he’s likely to have already notched up a winner in the same silks after Too Darn Hot has strutted his stuff in the Champagne Stakes.
However, it might be worth chancing Dettori in the Alan Wood Plumbing And Heating Park Stakes at 2.25 as well, when he gets the leg up on Karl Burke’s UNFORTUNATELY at 16/1 (Sky Bet, Bet365).
This horse was a class juvenile winning at Group One and Group Two level in France, his performances as a two-year-old earning him a rating of 117 – form that gives him an outstanding chance here getting weight from everything bar his stablemate and rank outsider Raydience.
The down side is his form this year as he hasn’t troubled the judge in three starts and we have to accept the possibility that he just hasn’t trained on.
I don’t subscribe to that view, though, as I thought he was unlucky not to finish closer in the Commonwealth Cup (only beaten just over four lengths) and then he was beaten by some quality sprinters in a hot renewal of the Prix Maurice de Gheest.
Things just seemed to be happening a bit quick for him in France but he kept on nicely enough and that’s encouraging ahead of his first go at seven furlongs, a trip that could really suit him now.
He’s got seven-furlong specialists in his family and Society Rock has produced plenty of progeny that excel at that trip, too, so it has to be worth a go now he doesn’t look to have the zip for a quality sprint.
This is a drop in class for him and his easiest assignment for some time, while Dettori’s presence in the saddle is a massive positive as, apart from the obvious, he has a great record when riding for owners Cheveley Park Stud (27 wins from 88 rides at 30.68%).
Burke swaps the cheekpieces for the visor, headgear he won in first-time out last season and, all in all, there’s comfortably enough juice in his price to chance him bouncing back to his best.
Earlier on at Doncaster it’s the William Hill Portland Handicap over five furlongs and 143 yards and it’s WENTWORTH FALLS that makes most appeal at 20/1 (William Hill ¼ 1,2,3,4).
This horse needs a big field and a strong gallop to produce his best so it was no surprise he was beaten in small fields at Thirsk and Nottingham in July where he raced keenly and ran on, beaten by small margins on both occasions.
He wasn’t suited by the way things panned out at Thirsk last time, either, as he was left with plenty to do, but he ran on well into fourth and was less than a length behind Dakota Gold at the line.
Off identical terms there’s unlikely to be much between the pair once again, but Wentworth Falls is twice the price of Dakota Gold and that just looks plain wrong.
While Dakota Gold has never run at Doncaster, Wentworth Falls has reserved his best form for Town Moor, winning in the biggest field he’s ever run in when landing a 22-runner handicap at the track in the April of last year.
He had loads to do when taking off a furlong from home that day and it was only off a 6lb lower mark than the one he runs off on Saturday, so he has plenty in his favour at a big each-way price.
Finally, BAYDAR looks too tempting to ignore at 8/1 (General) in the Josephine Gordon Blog Handicap over at Chester (2.05).
This horse caught the eye when running on quite nicely on his first go in a 0-90 for two years at Hamilton last time and he could well make the most of his plummeting mark in the same grade.
Rated 105 at his zenith and 100 when he arrived at Ian Williams’ just four starts ago, he’s dropped 12lb in four starts after barely raising a leg on his first three runs for his new stable.
However, there was definite promise last time and this new trip could well benefit him these days. Certainly, his trainer knows a stayer when he sees one and he definitely knows how to use a visor.
Williams has 15 wins from 70 goes (21.43 per cent) when employing a first-time visor on the Flat and he’s three from six at Chester (+£62, £1 level stake to SP) when utilising that headgear first time.
That’s some statistic and his record on the Roodeye isn’t bad in 2018 either (four from 19 at 21 per cent) while this turning track could just be what Baydar needs to keep him interested.
Ben Linfoot's Value Bet aim: The Value Bet is designed to generate long-term profit by searching for overpriced horses in the feature weekend races and at the big Festivals in the UK. Running total: +338.09pts to advised stakes/prices (from inception of Value Bet column in January 2010 to current).
Click here for the full Value Bet record
Posted at 1700 BST on 14/09/18.