Our racing expert Ben Linfoot had 10/1 and 12/1 Value Bet winners at Ascot last Saturday - see if he can follow those up at Aintree and Wincanton this weekend.
Recommended Bets: Saturday, November 9
1pt win Misty Bloom in 1.50 Wincanton at 18/1
1pt win Oldgrangewood in 2.05 Aintree at 13/2
1pt win Just A Sting in 3.35 Wincanton at 8/1
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Rain has decimated the Flat season finale at Doncaster but Wincanton seems to have missed plenty of the bad weather with the ground described as good on Friday afternoon.
That could change on Saturday as rain is forecast, so it could be worth keeping an eye on the sky ahead of the Badger Beers Silver Trophy Handicap Chase at 3.35.
White Moon looks the obvious starting point here, as he’s so unexposed and was unlucky not to win at Wincanton last time out when slithering on landing after the last when in front.
He went up 5lb for that so he’s penalised as if he won but that’s fair enough and he probably deserves to edge favouritism from Present Man.
Paul Nicholls’ horse, owned by Mr Badger Beers himself, Mark Woodhouse, is going for his third consecutive win in the contest under Bryony Frost after winning the last two renewals off marks of 142 and 144.
His task is tougher this year off 148 and he’s probably about the right price at 5/1, but he clearly deserves respect in his Gold Cup.
The one I want to back, though, is Harry Fry’s JUST A STING at 8/1 (bet365, Boylsports).
I don’t think a bit of rain would be much of a bother him although he’s probably better on good ground, but the key factor could be catching him first time out at this time of year.
Fry historically has an excellent record in handicaps in this month (22 from 93 at 23.66 per cent) and this horse won his first two starts last season in October and November.
His season went off the boil in the spring, but he’s dropped a few pounds to 134 on the back of those runs and he’s only 3lb higher than his last winning mark now.
Fry reaches for the first-time cheekpieces, which he uses sparingly, but his record with them is good, winning five from 22 goes at 22.72 per cent, including If The Cap Fits’ Ryanair Stayers Hurdle win at Aintree in April.
Just A Sting remains unexposed himself after just five chase starts and he looks like he has plenty more to offer in the sphere.
Earlier on at Wincanton MISTY BLOOM looks underestimated at 18/1 (Ladbrokes, 16/1 General) in the Richard Barber Memorial Mares’ Handicap Hurdle at 1.50.
Emma Lavelle also does well in handicaps in November and she had two good options for this race at the six-day stage so it’s interesting she’s running this consistent mare.
She’s only finished out of the first three once in her last eight starts and her two runs this season off the back of a five-month break have been the two best runs off her career.
Adam Wedge went easy on her once her chance had gone at Ludlow last time, but it wasn’t a bad effort at all and with talented claimer Ben Jones, who gave Gumball a fine ride at Ascot last weekend, taking off 5lb, she runs off a featherweight in this.
Lavelle is fairly local to Wincanton training just 50 miles up the road and she has an excellent record at the track, winning 33 from 199 at 17 per cent, and this mare looks a tad overpriced to improve that record further in an open contest.
Finally OLDGRANGEWOOD looks the one to be on at 13/2 (Betfair Sportsbook, Paddy Power) in the Virgin Bet Handicap Chase up at Aintree (2.05).
The ground is already soft in Liverpool and that won’t bother Oldgrangewood who has won in such conditions a couple of times.
Victory eluded him last season but he ran well off higher marks than Saturday’s on a few occasions and there’s no doubt he looks a very well-handicapped horse now.
He won a handicap chase at Newbury off 145 in his pomp and he runs off 136 on Saturday, while he’s had wind surgery since he was last seen and Dan Skelton’s horses are going well.
Posted at 1700 BST on 08/11/19
Ben Linfoot's Value Bet aim: The Value Bet is designed to generate long-term profit by searching for overpriced horses in the feature weekend races and at the big Festivals in the UK and Ireland. Running total: +372.39pts to advised stakes/prices (from inception of Value Bet column in January 2010 to current).
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